Forthcoming state elections are being pitched as Modi’s acid test before the parliamentary elections scheduled for May. As the Opposition seeks to cobble together a coalition against the Modi-led BJP and raise fresh controversies to corner his administration, analysts and political observers are losing their earlier confidence about Modi’s chances of winning a second term. An adverse election result may bring in temporary uncertainty over policy continuity and make investors nervous.
By the end of October, stock markets had fallen in Hong Kong (45.5%), Australia (41.8%), Spain (31%), the United Kingdom (26.45%), the United States (22.68%) and Canada (22.5%). New Zealand's market was hit especially hard, falling about 60% from its 1987 peak, and would take several years to recover. The damage to the New Zealand economy was compounded by high exchange rates and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's refusal to loosen monetary policy in response to the crisis, in contrast to countries such as West Germany, Japan and the United States, whose banks increased short-term liquidity to forestall recession and would experience economic growth in the following 2–3 years.
On November 8, 2016, Donald Trump was declared to have been elected as the 45th president of the United States. During the evening and night of the 8th and through the morning of the 9th, global financial markets lost a tremendous amount of value—at one point, US markets had lost a trillion dollars in one of the biggest crashes ever. While the overnight US markets showed big losses, even hitting the circuit breakers, the day of November 9 closed with the three major stock indexes up over a point each. It's too early to tell what this means in the long term.
“My view is that the markets are extremely overvalued, and can fall even 2,000 points from here. (Sensex). The Nifty can correct by about 1,000 points. Nothing has changed fundamentally, I mean we have the same macro-economic situation, etc, but when a sell-off happens, nobody can predict. Financials, especially NBFCs are overvalued,” Rajat Sharma, founder, Sana Securities told FE Online.
The content on TodayTrader.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or tax recommendation. Trading and investing involves substantial financial risk. We have business relationships with some of the products and services mentioned on this site and we may be compensated if you choose to sign up for products through links in our content. Full disclaimer.
Note that the source of increasing "order flow toxicity" on May 6, 2010, is not determined in Easley, Lopez de Prado, and O'Hara's 2011 publication. Whether a dominant source of toxic order flow on May 6, 2010, was from firms representing public investors or whether a dominant source was intermediary or other proprietary traders could have a significant effect on regulatory proposals put forward to prevent another Flash Crash. According to Bloomberg, the VPIN metric is the subject of a pending patent application filed by the paper's three authors, Maureen O'Hara and David Easley of Cornell University, and Marcos Lopez de Prado, of Tudor Investment Corporation.
But don’t be paranoid either over the inaction. In fact, certain individual stocks are apparently overvalued with unreasonable PE ratios – including Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) – that have the right ingredients to form a bubble. Now don’t get this wrong. We are not saying that Amazon or Netflix is a bubble, but given a potential crash, it would be wise to stay away from overvalued stocks.
Though, again, that may be generally true, at times of severe market moves, surprisingly, often there is very little new news to justify the price change. Research on what moves stock prices, has found that prices can often move a lot without news. Also, in his book Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller finds that one of the biggest stock market moves of all time, 1987's Black Monday decline wasn't driven by any obvious economic event. Therefore, it's not clear that market crashes are the result of some unanticipated bad news that shocks investors.
Japanese asset price bubble 1991 Lasting approximately twenty years, through at least the end of 2011, share and property price bubble bursts and turns into a long deflationary recession. Some of the key economic events during the collapse of the Japanese asset price bubble include the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the Dot-com bubble. In addition, more recent economic events, such as the late-2000s financial crisis and August 2011 stock markets fall have prolonged this period.
Housing supply is also an important dynamic to consider when looking at a then-and-now analysis of the housing market. Since mortgages were being given out with little regard to the borrower’s ability to pay back the loan, new home building skyrocketed to meet the new demand. In 2005, new home sales hit a 52 year high with 1.28 million new homes being built. Ten years later, only 500,000 new homes were constructed, dropping 61 percent from the peak ten years prior. An overall lack of inventory continues to be a driver in price appreciation.
Without question, Warren Buffett and the rest of Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE:BRK-A) (NYSE:BRK-B) investment team incorporate many different metrics when evaluating prospective companies to acquire and stocks to buy. However, Buffett himself has mentioned one specific metric as the best indicator of stock valuations, and it has appropriately been nicknamed the "Buffett Indicator" in the investing community. Here's what the Buffett Indicator is, and why it may be signaling that the stock market is a bit overheated.
Harris said the markets are also watching the progress of the U.K.'s pending exit from the European Union next March. On Sept. 30, the U.K. conservative party conference begins, and its tone could influence the course of Brexit talks. He said it would take a big shock from Europe to affect the U.S. Failure by the U.K. to reach a Brexit deal could be such an event.
Jesazzzz Koverist. This means that post calapse, the city air will be unbreathable from all the garbage, rotting and decaying stinking dead bodies all over all the major cities, meaning that, the DUMB-F…k survivors, these are the New Preppers, who were not preppers, who jus scavenged, tore up the restaurants, fast food joints, distribution centers, possible white, middle class, people who laughed at us prepper types, who went, damn, lets get all the food and water now, we are clearing the f…k out of town to the country. Now we can see if we awesome preppers who were able to GTFOT, GET THE F… OUT OF TOWN TYPES. then we preppers can see literally, get this millions, 50,000,000 plus, fleeing the cities, jamed up on the freeways with Jade Helm 15, russian and chinses soldiers at check points grabbing people, shooting the men point blank range and grabbing women and children off the freeways, gun ships and drones all the sky, tanks, and other military equipment suddenly rolled out on the streets of all the major cities shooting the men on all the major freeways in all the major cities. Trapped Patriots, veterans and Local Red Necks and new Freedom fighters of all races, black, white, hispanic, asain and other unreconizable nationals that we dont or cant tell wtf? there are, now engaged in gun battles against one another. The kind of situation, that even tough guys like myself litterally loose bladder control, and piss my pants at the mere taught of it. As we literally witness the first stage of calapse.
The turbulence in India follows bursts of market volatility across Asian and developing countries this year. While a record-breaking surge in U.S. stocks has kept equity markets largely buoyant, some investors are growing skittish as global interest rates rise. The Hong Kong dollar posted its biggest swing since 2003 on Friday, while markets from Turkey to Argentina have endured big spikes in volatility in recent months.
The 1987 crash was so big that the stock market ended up losing almost $1/2 trillion. Now, what could be the probable reason for such an unnatural crash in the stock market? Market analysts over the years have deduced the reasons which could have resulted in this market crash. The first and foremost reason they found out was that the market lacked liquidity. The market failed to manage the sudden and extremely high volume of sell orders. It seemed that almost all the investors needed to sell their stocks at that particular time. This became difficult for the market to handle and resulted in the crash.
I agree with the first posting. Interesting synopsis of the real estate market but your support of trump is really misplaced. He is a liar and cannot be trusted in ANYTHING he does. The 90s under Clinton and the GOP congress was the best economic expansion in our country’s history, period. Opportunity everywhere. Taxes were high, but we were more balanced. The Obama years were more about the Tea Party than anything. And guess what. Unless Trump solves this dilemma, he’s done and we’re done too. The FED is the only thing that has kept us from roiling over the edge for the last 8+ years. And I’m guessing under Trump after a few years of super heating the economy again, like under Way, we’ll be looking at another speculative crash. Why? Because the GOP has sold us down the river. NO? Everything in our lives now reflects business and speculative interests? Who benefits? Gee I don’t know. Maybe rich people that can speculate on everything that touches us. Time to leave. You stay in the game and keep preaching growth instead of stability. Let’s see how it all works out.
When Tobin’s Q is in its uppermost quartile, as it is today, it suggests this reward/risk equation is not at all favorable for investors. In other words, these “fat tails” get even fatter during these periods thus investors should look to hedge their portfolios against large declines. And this is precisely the “asset inflation” Taleb was referring to in the interview mentioned at the top of this post.
As we mark the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed. But looking ahead, the more relevant question is what actually will trigger the next global recession and crisis, and when.
Market crashes are far more common in our imagination than in reality. This is because they are vivid and scary events. Given our evolution, we are wired to worry about these sorts of vivid events. While, this may have been useful in helping us avoid getting eaten by tigers, it's less useful for rational, disciplined stock market investing. By thinking this topic through now, hopefully you're a little better prepared when the next crash hits.