The trouble began a week ago in the West, where in the early evening a single grain of sand fell on a portion of our pile that was already very steep. This triggered a small avalanche, as a few grains toppled downhill toward the East. Unfortunately, the pile hasn’t been managed properly in the West, and these few grains entered into another region of the pile that was also already steep. Soon more grains toppled and throughout the night the avalanche grew in size; by the next morning, it was well out of control. In retrospect, there is nothing surprising. One fateful grain falling a week ago led to a chain of events that swept catastrophe across the pile and into our own backyard here in the East. Had the Western authorities been more responsible, they could have removed some sand from the initial spot, and then none of this would have happened. It is a tragedy that we can only hope will never be repeated."
There are numerous housing crash factors discussed below from geopolitical events to trade related to rising interest rates, the end of stimulus spending, and excessively high home prices.  A trade war with China could be crash factor #1.  Will debt, deficits, and tariff barriers be the issues that start bursting housing bubbles? Will it be political opposition by the democrats and meddling within the US?

"Panic is already starting to set in, which is kind of incredible when you actually think about it," said Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management. "The S&P is trading where it was in sometime in December. So it's not like we're retracing an entire 12 months of returns here. I think investors are just understandably nervous. It probably is programmed trading kicking in at this point."


A bull market -- just like the one the U.S. stock market has experienced since 2009 -- happens when investors are optimistic about the markets and the economy, and when demand outpaces supply, thus driving up share prices. As bull markets peter out -- they can last anywhere from two years to nine years -- all it takes is a significant market event to create a crisis of confidence among investors and draw more sellers into the market. This can create a stock market crash that leads to a bear market.
TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.

The trouble began a week ago in the West, where in the early evening a single grain of sand fell on a portion of our pile that was already very steep. This triggered a small avalanche, as a few grains toppled downhill toward the East. Unfortunately, the pile hasn’t been managed properly in the West, and these few grains entered into another region of the pile that was also already steep. Soon more grains toppled and throughout the night the avalanche grew in size; by the next morning, it was well out of control. In retrospect, there is nothing surprising. One fateful grain falling a week ago led to a chain of events that swept catastrophe across the pile and into our own backyard here in the East. Had the Western authorities been more responsible, they could have removed some sand from the initial spot, and then none of this would have happened. It is a tragedy that we can only hope will never be repeated."
Yes Bank share price on NSE fell as much as 31.7% to Rs 218.1, their steepest percentage plunge since January 2008, after the Reserve Bank of India asked CEO and MD Rana Kapoor asked to leave. According to a Reuters report, Jefferies has said that it does not subscribe to the view that without Kapoor there is no future for this systemically large bank, or that its financials have been cooked up. Yes Bank shareholders voted in June to extend Kapoor's term for three years, pending approval from the RBI. Earlier this week, late on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allowed Rana Kapoor to continue as CEO & MD till 31 January 2019.
Thanks for writing the article. It makes some sense. but how about if the amounts are very different? I am currently considering selling my home which will now sell for $1.7 mil. when I purchased 6 years ago it was just under $600k. a 20% drop would be a gain of $340k which would be nice. But the main reason I would consider selling is to re purpose the tax free gains and invest in a range of different investments. I never intended for my house to be an investment tool, but as it has given me such large gains it seems foolish not to take them. In the perhaps 5% to 10% chance the housing market does continue to soar upwards then I guess I’ll never own again! but I will still have considerable assets that will secure me for life.
Global cues: The subdued Asian markets have also weighed on market sentiment. Brokers said weakness was seen in most Asian markets as high US yield and good economic data led to fear that investors would move to the US, dampened trading sentiments there. Japan's Nikkei was trading 0.46 per cent down at 23,999 as investors took profit from its recent rally to a 27-year high. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dipped over 1.50 per cent at 26,628.64.
It's not enough to have a pile of cash to spend when the market crashes if you end up having no idea what to buy. So build and maintain a stock watch list. Start by jotting down the names of companies you read or hear about that seem like promising investments. You could do so on paper, but maintaining a list online is better. You can set up an online watch list or "portfolio" full of stocks of interest at sites such as finance.yahoo.com, morningstar.com, marketwatch.com and others. You might pretend that you bought one or more shares of each at the stock price at which you first noticed the company. That way, the portfolio will always reflect how much the stock has risen or fallen since then.
Yes, the market will fall by about 10% about once a year on average. However, those bigger crashes where the market just carries on down that are prominent in market memory, are rare events. Since many statistical techniques are reliant on a lot of data for robustness, those same techniques may be out of their depth when examining crashes. In fact, these events seem to break the patterns that seem to govern the market most of the times.
The Indian rupee jumped as much as 55 paise against the US dollar in the opening trade at the interbank foreign exchange market on Friday. The rupee regained a level of 71.8288, up 55 paise per unit US dollar, the Bloomberg data showed. India's government is planning to ask state oil firms to lock in their crude futures purchase prices, Reuters reported citing an unidentified government source, anticipating a spike when US sanctions on Iran snap back again in November. The move would be another step to tackle a slide in the rupee, as oil prices are putting pressure on India, the report added. 
You are obviously a banker of some sort. The bankers and the bank owners are fucking greedy bastards. PERIOD. Look at the situation. They make billions but cant provide benefits. It is the obligation of owners and investors to provide for workers. Its is supposed to work that way. But they and you KEEP it all and give the people swill. You al suck and have been compared to serial killers on a psychological level.. Stop defending the indefensible! you bought the bailout in 08 and the took bonuses for causing it. You put people and kids in th street then went sailing. So fuck you and your bastard cronies!!!!!
Real Wealth Strategist is an investment newsletter. Matt Badiali’s work has taken him to Papua New Guinea, Iraq, Hong Kong, Singapore, Haiti, Turkey, Switzerland and many other locations around the world. He’s visited countless mines and oil wells internationally, interrogated CEOs about their latest resource prospects and analyzed all manners of geologic data. Matt believes the best way to be sure if an investment is safe (and correctly made) is to see it in person.
Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.
Hi Aaron, so nice to hear from someone from Nebraska. I see how prices are rising fast again this summer. I’m wondering that with few listings, what kind of home would you get if you bought this year? Could you find a real gem? The US economy will grow so prices in Omaha are likely to rise strongly. Soybean prices are way down, there’s a lot of risk for 2018/2019? I suspect rent until you’re sure is the best advice. Good luck with your decision!
"American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance. Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. (The Dow Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions. And don't forget that shareholders received substantial dividends throughout the century as well.)"

Even after the turnaround began in March 2009, it's not as if investors knew the bear had run its course. The S&P dropped by more than 15% in 2010 and by almost 20% in 2011. We know now that these setbacks were temporary speed bumps (albeit scary ones) within a new bull market. But investors back then didn't have the advantage of being able to consult a stock chart, as we can today, that showed them how it all played out.
Our deficit and debt as numbers alone are kind of meaningless.. It only matters relative to other countries and relative to our GDP. For better or worse current economic theory under globalization seems to expect every country to grow and amass more debt while keeping those two values in some kind of balance. So it is hard even for an economist to say how relevant the size of the number is. And a lot of that theory is working out rather poorly for many Euro countries right now.
Hi Jack, I can’t offer advice and I can’t imagine a first time buyer buying in North County. Oceanside home prices are up 11% in the last year, so a lot of buyers/investors are optimistic. I don’t see availability improving much in San Diego County and with the economy so strong, things look good. However, with geo political uncertainty, you need to be able survive a crash anytime in the next 5 years!
As the year drew to a close, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its growth estimate higher. It said that the nation’s gross domestic product had increased 0.5 percent in the third quarter. Its prior estimate said it had shrunk 0.5 percent. It seemed the U.S. economy could shrug off a housing downturn and banks’ liquidity constraints. The Dow ended the year just slightly off its October high, at 13,264.82.
Futures and options markets are hedging and risk transfer markets. The report references a series of bona fide hedging transactions, totaling 75,000 contracts, entered into by an institutional asset manager to hedge a portion of the risk in its $75 billion investment portfolio in response to global economic events and the fundamentally deteriorating market conditions that day. The 75,000 contracts represented 1.3% of the total E-Mini S&P 500 volume of 5.7 million contracts on May 6 and less than 9% of the volume during the time period in which the orders were executed. The prevailing market sentiment was evident well before these orders were placed, and the orders, as well as the manner in which they were entered, were both legitimate and consistent with market practices. These hedging orders were entered in relatively small quantities and in a manner designed to dynamically adapt to market liquidity by participating in a target percentage of 9% of the volume executed in the market. As a result of the significant volumes traded in the market, the hedge was completed in approximately twenty minutes, with more than half of the participant's volume executed as the market rallied—not as the market declined. Additionally, the aggregate size of this participant's orders was not known to other market participants.
Seventh, US and global equity markets are frothy. Price-to-earnings ratios in the US are 50% above the historic average, private-equity valuations have become excessive, and government bonds are too expensive, given their low yields and negative term premia. And high-yield credit is also becoming increasingly expensive now that the US corporate-leverage rate has reached historic highs.
After the experience of the 1929 crash, stock markets around the world instituted measures to suspend trading in the event of rapid declines, claiming that the measures would prevent such panic sales. However, the one-day crash of Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6%, was worse in percentage terms than any single day of the 1929 crash (although the combined 25% decline of October 28–29, 1929 was larger than October 19, 1987, and remains the worst two-day decline ever).[citation needed]
The joint 2010 report "portrayed a market so fragmented and fragile that a single large trade could send stocks into a sudden spiral",[23] and detailed how a large mutual fund firm selling an unusually large number of E-Mini S&P contracts first exhausted available buyers, and then how high-frequency traders (HFT) started aggressively selling, accelerating the effect of the mutual fund's selling and contributing to the sharp price declines that day.[42][23]
Indeed, Buffett's ability to tune out the noise and remain optimistic amid these downturns has played a vital role in his unrivaled performance over decades. Between 1965 and the end of 2017, Berkshire's market value has increased at an annualized rate of 20.9%, more than doubling the S&P 500's average annual growth of 9.9% during this same period. This 20.9% annualized growth rate for Berkshire's market value translates to a total return of 2,404,748%, obliterating the S&P 500's 15,508% gain during the same timeframe.
Now is the time to make sure you have a portfolio that you could live with through a crash. A typical crash will feel very different if you are 100% invested in stocks, than if you have some of your portfolio invested in bonds and other assets. The time to work out the right allocation for you is now, if you determine that you should not be completely in stocks but would rather have a 60%/40% stock/bond allocation, then it's critically important to determine that before a crash occurs. If you don't, you'll experience the worst of both worlds. You'll likely see the greatest losses during the crash, but also fail to benefit fully from any recovery. If you prepare ahead of time, you'll be better able to ride out any market events.
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