Moreover, the leverage in many emerging markets and some advanced economies is clearly excessive. Commercial and residential real estate is far too expensive in many parts of the world. The emerging-market correction in equities, commodities, and fixed-income holdings will continue as global storm clouds gather. And as forward-looking investors start anticipating a growth slowdown in 2020, markets will reprice risky assets by 2019.
According to estimates from JPMorgan Chase in June 2017, just 10% of all stock-trading volume is the result of investors picking stocks to buy and sell. The remainder of trading volume primarily derives from quantitative-based computer trading. Essentially, we’re talking about computer programs that aim to secure small profits via high-frequency trading (HFT) hundreds or thousands of times a day.
Its pretty obvious she's completely failed. She may as well have said she never wrote the current Brexit deal, Barnier did or Merkel did. In more enlightened times her head would be on a spike by now, down by the Thames. But what do we expect from just the latest traitor to Sovereignty on the list, that includes: Heath, Major, Brown and the rest . . We need a new broom to sweep all this rubbish away, once and for all . .

Greed and only greed caused the crashes. Investing is the attempt to make a financial killing, in other words, bigger profits and less work. Why else would anyone with their head on straignt want to make a profit on the backs of others? Thousands of years ago it was determined by one nation that debts should be forgiven every 7 years. Lending money with large interest rates was unfair. It’s in Egyptian and Abrahamic history. But GAMBLERS saw the same things as unconcerned individuals see today. Morality be dammed and me first.

The S&P BSE Sensex surged 368 points on Friday, the recovery after 970-point fall in this week earlier, to a day's high of 37,489.24 tracking the strongness in Indian rupee value against US dollar, lower crude oil prices, government's directive to oil marketers to book future prices of crude oil and positive Asian cues. Shares of ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ITC, Axis Bank, HDFC and SBI were the biggest positive point contributors to the benchmark index, as these stocks collectively added about 350 points. 


“…Low-money-down loans have been available for decades, and that is not what caused the housing crash. Really bad loans to people who should not buy houses is what caused the housing crisis. …” I’m presuming this is a ‘cliff notes’ take on the market since we can’t dispense all knowledge in a post. But my quick 2 cents. As a 2nd generation broker/investor/finance degree holder, bad loans where just a part of the problem. We had funds flowing out of other ‘under performing’ investments…e.g: $’s tend to move from CDs to collectables to stocks to real estate. I’ve owned all but stocks. Further, and this a more of a localized thing, wages must support prices. Las Vegas had speculators running up prices but buyers weren’t all from out of town so prices couldn’t be sustained. Here in NW Detroit suburbs, we are seeing a lot of new industry coming in and hence price strength above what might be healthy in other parts of MI.


Its pretty obvious she's completely failed. She may as well have said she never wrote the current Brexit deal, Barnier did or Merkel did. In more enlightened times her head would be on a spike by now, down by the Thames. But what do we expect from just the latest traitor to Sovereignty on the list, that includes: Heath, Major, Brown and the rest . . We need a new broom to sweep all this rubbish away, once and for all . .


Statistically, September is the worst month of the year for stocks, and while the S&P 500 is up about 8.5 percent so far this year, strategists say what's ahead this fall could challenge those gains, including the U.S. midterm elections. August is often wobbly too, but this year's 3 percent S&P gain was the best performance for the month in four years.
To avoid losing too much in a market crash, investors should lower their stock allocations when prices get insanely high (like they are today!). It’s not a good idea to get out of stocks entirely because it is not possible say precisely when a crash will come. But it makes all the sense in the world to lower one’s stock allocation a bit because all lasting crashes take place starting from high prices.
And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide.  President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.
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This book has lots of good statistical information to back up its premises...which seem to boil down to...Buy a home within your means (and he does define how to find that out, which is a good thing if you can't figure it out on your own)...Anticipate that the home market could go down as interest rates rise making your home harder to sell in a pinch (to his credit, he tells you how to avoid that too)...and a few other common sense rules of buying that could be applied to many things. If a person is going to spend 6 figures on anything, you would think that they would take the time to learn what they are doing, but it is obvious to the author and to many other people watchers in the world that too many people just don't put effort into watching where they put their money. So, if you are a person who carefully spends your money without rushing into any purchase, you probably have enough sense to not have to buy this book; and if you are person who is just the opposite, you probably aren't too concerned even now about learning anything about your home purchase, so you aren't even reading this review. Last note: if you were going to buy properties to use for investment purposes, this book could be of assistance. Hope this helps.
I think the US has a super position if Trump can get past all his enemies and stimulate the GDP and domestic productivity. It’s not easy to bring good jobs back. He’s really bit off more than he can chew. If he can cut small business taxes, that would launch the country into boom times. If he doesn’t do something soon, because things are quiet right now, even his biggest supporters could possibly turn on him.
Prolonging the good times into September will require navigating a calendar full of pitfalls. Of primary concern are emerging markets, where currency and other assets are weakening and some say contagion will worsen. The big risk is on the trade front with President Donald Trump said to want to move ahead with a plan to impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports as soon as next week.
Our tail-hedged portfolio consists of S&P 500 and out-of-the-money put options (specifically one delta which has a strike roughly 30% to 35% below spot) on the S&P 500. At the beginning of every calendar month, using actual option prices, the number of third-month options (with a maturity from 11 to 12 weeks, and also carrying over the payoff from unexpired options) is determined such that the tail-hedged portfolio breaks even for a down 20% move in the S&P 500 over a month. From practice, for scaling the payoff, we can safely assume the S&P 500 options’ implied volatility, or IVol, surface would look similar to the one observed after the lows of the October 2002 crash.
It’s also in Christian and Western history. Originally the Jews cornered the market on charging interest on loans and their successful business innovation of making loans for profit is what has led to capitalist growth and the lifting of billions from poverty and starvation globally. Interest isn’t greed, its the time value of money. And modern “targeted” interest rates in the U.S. and elsewhere are government-subsidized giveaways to whomever can qualify for them.
After October 29, 1929, stock prices had nowhere to go but up, so there was considerable recovery during succeeding weeks. Overall, however, prices continued to drop as the United States slumped into the Great Depression, and by 1932 stocks were worth only about 20 percent of their value in the summer of 1929. The stock market crash of 1929 was not the sole cause of the Great Depression, but it did act to accelerate the global economic collapse of which it was also a symptom. By 1933, nearly half of America’s banks had failed, and unemployment was approaching 15 million people, or 30 percent of the workforce.

Without question, Warren Buffett and the rest of Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE:BRK-A) (NYSE:BRK-B) investment team incorporate many different metrics when evaluating prospective companies to acquire and stocks to buy. However, Buffett himself has mentioned one specific metric as the best indicator of stock valuations, and it has appropriately been nicknamed the "Buffett Indicator" in the investing community. Here's what the Buffett Indicator is, and why it may be signaling that the stock market is a bit overheated.
Also, be sure you're focused on percentages, not points, when thinking about stock market movements. This is something the media doesn't sufficiently understand, often reporting market drops in points instead of percentages. As an example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by a whopping 1,175 points in a single day in February 2018, which sure sounds like a lot -- especially compared with 1987's "Black Monday," when the Dow fell 508 points. But in percentage points, it was a meaningful yet not catastrophic 4.6% decline -- while 1987's drop wiped out 22.6% of the market's value at the time. The Dow was near 26,000 at the time of this writing, and the S&P 500 was around 2,800. At those levels, if the Dow "plunges" by 260 points, remember that it would be just a 1% move. Even a 1,000-point drop would be just a 3.85% decline.
A year before its demise, Lehman's leverage ratio was a massive 30-to-1, which economists consider as being an extremely high risk. The investment banking giant had $22 billion in equity to back $691 billion in total assets. At that point, even a minuscule drop in asset value of 3% was enough to send one of Wall Street's giants careening into oblivion.
Filia pointed to the increasing frequency of value-at-risk shocks, or swift market corrections, as an indication of fragility for global markets. The report cited as evidence the VIX volatility index spike in February, the Turkish lira's dramatic drop in recent months, and Italy's roller-coaster bond price moves, among other examples, as early warning signals for "system instability of the broader financial network."

But if U.S. GDP growth were to falter -- let’s say dip to 1% or lower on an annual basis -- then it would be really difficult to support existing valuations for companies in the technology and biotech arenas. And since tech and biotech have played such a critical role over the past nine-plus years in pushing stocks higher, they could easily be responsible for dragging the stock market into a correction.


One mitigation strategy has been the introduction of trading curbs, also known as "circuit breakers", which are a trading halt in the cash market and the corresponding trading halt in the derivative markets triggered by the halt in the cash market, all of which are affected based on substantial movements in a broad market indicator. Since their inception, circuit breakers have been modified to prevent both speculative gains and dramatic losses within a small time frame.[43]
While the A$ is working off very negative short positions and oversold conditions resulting in another short-term bounce, it’s still likely to fall to around US$0.70 and maybe into the high US$0.60s as the gap between the RBA’s cash rate and the US Fed Funds rate pushes further into negative territory because the US economy is booming relative to Australia. Being short the A$ remains a good hedge against things going wrong in the global economy.
3. They also found, to the surprise of some readers I’m sure, “that some widely cited economic variables displayed an unexpected, counterintuitive correlation with future returns. The ratio of govern- ment debt to GDP is an example: Although its R2makes it seem a better performer than others, the reason is actually opposite to what one would expect—the government debt/GDP ratio has had a positive relationship with the long-term realized return. In other words, higher government debt levels have been associated with higher future stock returns, at least in the United States since 1926″.
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