The Housing Bellwether Barometer is an index of homebuilders and mortgage companies. In 2017, it skyrocketed like it did in 2004 and 2005. That's according to its creator, Stack Financial Management, who used it to predict the 2008 financial crisis. Similarly, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF has risen 400 percent since March 2009. It outperformed the S&P 500 rise of 270 percent.
Are supposed to be good foragers and are a solid meat bird and can snag eggs, we dont eat a lot of eggs, hens are supposed to be good brooders for growing the numbers. Am crossing my fingers that they make it, should ship about the middle of this next month, they are selling out quick from what i see on the site, availability changed on successive hatches since i ordered, guess people are buying chickens now.
1st, sorry you lost your home. That said, had you read your loan documents you’d have seen the language advising you that loans are bought and sold on the secondary market all the time and the originator did not NEED your permission to do so. The sale of your loan to another bank, investor, Fannie, etc., had no effect on your payment, interest rate, term, etc. So the sale of your loan, regardless of how many times it was repackaged and sold, did not cause you to lose your house. If along the way the new holder of your “note” did not have an auto pay option, that was up to you follow up on and find out exactly HOW/WHERE they wanted you to make your payment. Again, sorry you lost your home, but the sale of mortgage backed securities (your loan) has no effect on the Payor (you) as terms cannot be altered (now THATS something they would need your approval on). The only way an eventual noteholder could foreclose on you is if you failed to make your payments as required…Did you stop making payments for some reason? A lot of good people got hurt in the crisis but there seems to be more to this than a repeated sale of the original note…I’ve been in my present home 26 years, have had several mortgages sold and sold again with no issues…most important thing is to confirm with your present lender that they had, in fact sold your note and the party telling you they now own your note are, in fact, who they say they are. Best of luck.
This also means that it is a mistake to think of investors as a bunch of clueless, greed-driven lemmings falling off a cliff during a market crash. For example, during the real estate boom of the mid-2000s people kept buying homes despite an abundance of media articles pointing out that the property market was swept in a mania. There was no question, even then, that the market was overheated. So why did people continue to buy homes?
To avoid losing too much in a market crash, investors should lower their stock allocations when prices get insanely high (like they are today!). It’s not a good idea to get out of stocks entirely because it is not possible say precisely when a crash will come. But it makes all the sense in the world to lower one’s stock allocation a bit because all lasting crashes take place starting from high prices.
By the end of October, stock markets had fallen in Hong Kong (45.5%), Australia (41.8%), Spain (31%), the United Kingdom (26.45%), the United States (22.68%) and Canada (22.5%). New Zealand's market was hit especially hard, falling about 60% from its 1987 peak, and would take several years to recover.[5][6] The damage to the New Zealand economy was compounded by high exchange rates and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's refusal to loosen monetary policy in response to the crisis, in contrast to countries such as West Germany, Japan and the United States, whose banks increased short-term liquidity to forestall recession and would experience economic growth in the following 2–3 years.[7]
Following the sharp plunge in the stock market, Looks like a technical sell-off, Madhusudan Kela of Reliance Capital told ET Now. Their short-term liquidity is very very good and this is a speculative unwinding in share markets, Madhusudan Kela said. Long-term investor, if you understand the company and faith in management, excellent opportunity to buy these companies; if you think the management is good and will come out stronger, then it’s a good opportunity to buy the shares, Madhusudan Kela said further.
It now looks like the secular bull market in stocks is turning into a secular bear market that could last for several years if not decades. The stock market acts as a sentiment indicator for what happens in the real economy. No indicator is perfect and stock market moves will be exaggerated in both directions. It is now likely that the world is starting an economic downturn of epic proportions.
“There’s no question when you look at last week, some of the selling is the result of programmatic selling because as volatility goes up, some of these algorithms force people to sell,” Solomon told CNBC’s Wilfred Frost. “Market structure can, at times, contribute to volatility and one of the things that we’re spending a bunch of time thinking about at the firm is how changes in market structure over the course of the last 10 years will affect market activity.”

The housing market peaked somewhere in 2006. We were beginning to see some of the early signs of trouble when some types of subprime loans started to go into default. There wasn’t worry at that time since never in history have prices for housing market gone down nationally. Once the credit markets froze in summer 2007, things began to deteriorate rapidly. Subprime credit stopped completely and interest rates for credit for other types of borrowing including corporate loans as well as consumer loans rose dramatically.
Homeowners are not taking as much equity out of their homes. Home equity rose to $85 billion in 2006. It collapsed to less than $10 billion in 2010. It remained there until 2015. By 2017, it had only risen to $14 billion. Obamacare is one reason for that. Bankruptcy filings have fallen 50 percent since the ACA was passed. In 2010, 1.5 million people filed. In 2016, only 770,846 did. 
But what about the risk of a property price crash as suggested by the recent Sixty Minutes report? Several things are worth noting in relation to this: predictions of a 30-50% property price crash have been wheeled out regularly in Australian media over the last decade including on Sixty Minutes; the anecdotes of mortgage stress and defaults don’t line up well with actual data showing low levels of arrears; borrowers have already been moving from interest only to principle and interest loans over the last few years, without a lot of stress; and the 40-45% price fall call on the program was “if everything turns against us”. Our view remains that in the absence of much higher interest rates, much higher unemployment, or a multi-year supply surge (none of which are expected) a property crash is unlikely. But the risks are now greater than when property crash calls started to be made a decade or so ago and so deeper price falls than the 15% top to bottom fall we expect for Sydney and Melbourne are a high risk. This is particularly so given the risk that post the Royal Commission bank lending standards become excessively tight, negative gearing is restricted and the capital gains tax discount is halved after a change in government in Canberra. There is also a big risk that FOMO (fear of missing out) becomes FONGO (fear of not getting out) for some.

I am not an expert on what a president should do and most can be picked apart pretty readily by experts. But it would seem that the current trajectory of the Republicans under Trump is not one of reducing our deficit. Yes they want to scale back a great deal of spending. The problem is they want to dump a lot of that savings back into a bloated military budget and on top of that are considering drastic tax cuts. No analysis thus far has been at all optimistic about any potential increase in growth outrunning the addition this will make to our debt over the long term. So if that number is a concern neither party has shown a willingness to fix it.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigation concluded that Sarao "was at least significantly responsible for the order imbalances" in the derivatives market which affected stock markets and exacerbated the flash crash.[10] Sarao began his alleged market manipulation in 2009 with commercially available trading software whose code he modified "so he could rapidly place and cancel orders automatically."[10] Traders Magazine journalist, John Bates, argued that blaming a 36-year-old small-time trader who worked from his parents' modest stucco house in suburban west London[10] for sparking a trillion-dollar stock market crash is a little bit like blaming lightning for starting a fire" and that the investigation was lengthened because regulators used "bicycles to try and catch Ferraris." Furthermore, he concluded that by April 2015, traders can still manipulate and impact markets in spite of regulators and banks' new, improved monitoring of automated trade systems.[3]
But a substantial minority of us have shares. According to a study by the ASX, 31 per cent of Aussies owned shares in 2017. That’s millions of people who watch Alan Kohler do the Finance news each night with a knot in their stomach. Are they a bit more tight-fisted if the finance news is bad? Some will be, especially if they are close to retirement.
In August, the wheat price fell when France and Italy were bragging of a magnificent harvest, and the situation in Australia improved. This sent a shiver through Wall Street and stock prices quickly dropped, but word of cheap stocks brought a fresh rush of "stags", amateur speculators and investors. Congress voted for a 100 million dollar relief package for the farmers, hoping to stabilize wheat prices. By October though, the price had fallen to $1.31 per bushel.[25]
After Black Monday, regulators overhauled trade-clearing protocols to bring uniformity to all prominent market products. They also developed new rules, known as "trading curbs" or colloquially as circuit breakers, allowing exchanges to temporarily halt trading in instances of exceptionally large price declines in some indexes; for instance, the DJIA.[15]
The Warren Buffett Indicator is less mysterious than it sounds. It might as well be called the common-sense indicator. It’s simply the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)—or the sum total of a country’s economic activity—and the value of stocks in the S&P 500. So, in simpler terms, the Warren Buffett Indicator in terms of Wall Street measures market capitalization versus U.S. GDP. (Source: “Why Warren Buffett Is Betting Against Warren Buffett,” Seeking Alpha, October 24, 2017.)
After Black Monday, regulators overhauled trade-clearing protocols to bring uniformity to all prominent market products. They also developed new rules, known as "trading curbs" or colloquially as circuit breakers, allowing exchanges to temporarily halt trading in instances of exceptionally large price declines in some indexes; for instance, the DJIA.[15]
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Toronto is a high value housing market similar to New York City or the Bay Area of California, and TO is a city destined to be a super city.  It’s unlikely that a property purchase in Toronto will be a disappointment over the long run. If you see the Toronto home price charts, you’ll notice that prices have climbed in the last 18 months. So buyers have not lost their equity.
However, the psychological effects of the crash reverberated across the nation as businesses became aware of the difficulties in securing capital market investments for new projects and expansions. Business uncertainty naturally affects job security for employees, and as the American worker (the consumer) faced uncertainty with regards to income, naturally the propensity to consume declined. The decline in stock prices caused bankruptcies and severe macroeconomic difficulties, including contraction of credit, business closures, firing of workers, bank failures, decline of the money supply, and other economically depressing events.
The new companies reduced Atari's share of the cartridge-game market from 75% in 1981 to less than 40% in 1982.[26] David Crane, one of the founders of Activision after leaving Atari, recalled that during the six months between two consecutive Consumer Electronic Shows, the number of third-party developers jumped from 3 to 30. Attempting to imitate Activision, the new companies attempted to use programmers unfamiliar with game development to produce, Crane said, "the worst games you can imagine".[27] Companies lured away each other's programmers or used reverse engineering to learn how to make games for proprietary systems. Atari even hired several programmers from Mattel's Intellivision development studio, prompting a lawsuit by Mattel against Atari that included charges of industrial espionage.
To be clear, this isn't an exhaustive list of things that could potentially cause a stock market crash. And it's likely that more than one of these factors could combine to cause a crash. The 2008 crash, for one, was primarily caused by excessive speculation that caused a bubble in real estate prices, along with excessive leverage taken on by both consumers and financial institutions, as well as investor panic after banks started to fail.
Good harvests had built up a mass of 250 million bushels of wheat to be "carried over" when 1929 opened. By May there was also a winter-wheat crop of 560 million bushels ready for harvest in the Mississippi Valley. This oversupply caused a drop in wheat prices so heavy that the net incomes of the farming population from wheat were threatened with extinction. Stock markets are always sensitive to the future state of commodity markets, and the slump in Wall Street predicted for May by Sir George Paish arrived on time. In June 1929, the position was saved by a severe drought in the Dakotas and the Canadian West, plus unfavorable seed times in Argentina and eastern Australia. The oversupply would now be wanted to fill the big gaps in the 1929 world wheat production. From 97¢ per bushel in May, the price of wheat rose to $1.49 in July. When it was seen that at this figure American farmers would get rather more for their smaller crop than for that of 1928, stocks went up again.
Another criticism of certain conventional risk models, is that they regard market crashes as extremely unlikely. Market models suggested 2008 was an incredibly rare event. However, the 1930s crash was fairly similar. Having extremely improbable events just eighty years apart makes very little sense. Of course, we could be massively unlucky, but it is of course far more likely that the model is wrong. And by wrong, we should be clear that we mean inappropriate for the high stress environments of a crash. Most of the time these models hold up just fine, but at the extremes they don't.
If you break up the components of the correction, the entire fall was concentrated in financials and other sectors where there are valuation concerns. Even within the large cap space, the correction was sharpest in stocks like Kotak Bank, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance etc where there already are valuation concerns. The basket selling was largely restricted to stocks like Yes Bank, Indiabulls and DHFL, which were in the news as well as stocks where valuation concerns have been around for quite some time.
And just when you think that this may all be a bunch of bul…h…t. A free energy inventer gets a phone call from a Tv morning show, calling him raising hell on his ass telling him, that he needs to buy up all the free energy electrical devices now, the free energy inventor declines his offer, Host hangs up on him pissed and then calls him back asking him nicely if he could allow him to send him a truck to empty his entire store inventory, the owner declines. Store owner inventor is told by said talk show host, that the elites are getting everything in place to plug the plug. Its obvious that its a planned calapse. The inventor tells us that we will be needing electicity to power up devices, because he was told that the grid will go down, and obvious planned EMP ATTACK on all our major cites, “planned” it seems.
If you doubt that, go back to the last major slump, the near 60% decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 index from early October, 2007 to early March, 2009. It's easy to see with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight that it would have been smart to get out of the market the first week of October. But that was hardly obvious in real time. In fact, after dropping by almost 20% from October to early March 2008, stocks rallied for a 12% gain into the middle of May. We know now that this was just a brief respite from what would turn out to be a gut-wrenching bear market. But for all investors knew at the time, that 12% rebound could have signaled the end of the selloff and a resumption of the market's advance.
Any of the measurements people quote—any of the stock market indexes which go up and down—are just measurements. They're averages. They're big bundles of numbers all mixed together. In all truth, they only reflect a snapshot of a point in time. They're numbers that stocks happened to end on when trading stopped for the day (or, at least, paused until after hours trading took over).
Network snapshots before (left) and during (right) the simulated flash crash. The last 400 transactions in the order-book are plotted by connecting the HFT agents who transact with each other. The node color indicates the inventory size of the HFT agent. When the market operates normally (left subplot), almost all of the HFT agents are in control of their inventory (greenish color). In crash period (right), most of the HFT agents gain large inventories (red) and the network is highly interconnected: over 85 percent of the transactions are HFT-HFT.[51]
In March 2017, William Poole, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, warned of another subprime crisis. He warned that 35 percent of Fannie Mae's loans required mortgage insurance. That's about the level in 2006. In some ways, these loans are worse. Fannie and Freddie lowered their definition of subprime from 660 to 620. The banks are no longer calling borrowers with scores between 620 and 660 subprime. Poole was the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas who warned of the subprime crisis in 2005.
The day began on a strong note as good global cues and stronger opening on the rupee boosted sentiment in D-Street. The Sensex had risen 300 points in intraday trade. But a sharp selloff in the afternoon, led by a 50 percent crash in Dewan Housing Finance’s shares as well as on Indiabulls Housing weighed big on the market. The Sensex fell 1,000 points, while the Nifty had managed to breach 11,000-mark as well.
There’s two camps on the 2019 crash issue. First those who see the unbelievable period of economic growth in the US and believe it has to end and who see the end of Free Trade as a forboding sign; and secondly, those who see only positive signals and the solid political footing of the Trump administration in its resolution to bring good paying jobs and industry back to the US.
After a very brief rally earlier in the week, stocks have been getting hammered again.  The S&P 500 has now fallen for 9 out of the last 11 trading sessions, and homebuilder stocks have now fallen for 19 of the last 22 trading sessions.  It was a “sea of red” on Thursday, and some of the stocks that are widely considered to be “economic bellwethers” were among those that got hit the hardest…
The bottom line for macro-investors is that rising rates may slow an already-sluggish economy, which, in turn may depress corporate earnings. Normally that would be a paramount concern, but with corporations swimming in record amounts of cash - with more on the way from the business-friendly GOP tax law - the market's extreme reaction may be overstated.
Finally, higher rates are especially problematic for so-called growth stocks, which includes tech stocks. "The lure for these stocks is growth in earnings down the road, but when interest rates are higher, the future value of those earnings streams declines," Hickey says. On Wednesday, video streamer Netflix fell 8.4 percent, Facebook tumbled 4.1 percent and Apple fell 4.6 percent.
Recently, Netherlands-based “Big Four” auditor KPMG has released another bullish stance on crypto, claiming that the industry needs institutional investors’ participation in order to “realize its potential.” Earlier last week, CoinShares CSO Meltem Demirors claimed that the the recent collapse of the markets is caused by institutions“taking money off the table” due to Bitcoin Cash’s (BCH) hard fork.

The Chief Economist of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and several academic economists published a working paper containing a review and empirical analysis of trade data from the Flash Crash.[60] The authors examined the characteristics and activities of buyers and sellers in the Flash Crash and determined that a large seller, a mutual fund firm, exhausted available fundamental buyers and then triggered a cascade of selling by intermediaries, particularly high-frequency trading firms. Like the SEC/CFTC report described earlier, the authors call this cascade of selling "hot potato trading",[51] as high-frequency firms rapidly acquired and then liquidated positions among themselves at steadily declining prices.
Conversely, if production issues strike a major producer (imagine, for example, a civil war in Libya), then skyrocketing oil prices could also have a detrimental impact. Rising crude prices could lead to significantly higher inflation levels and sap consumers of discretionary income at the pump or in their homes via fuel oil. We saw something similar to this in 2008, when West Texas Intermediate made a run at $150 per barrel following escalating tensions between Iran and the United States.
IMF has cut global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, saying that the US-China trade war was taking a toll and emerging markets were struggling with tighter liquidity and capital outflows. IMF in an update to its World Economic Outlook predicted a 3.7 per cent global growth in 2018 and 2019, down from its July forecast of 3.9 per cent growth for both years.
Shares in public companies can be traded. The stock market is just like any market. Think of the ASX as Gumtree, but for pieces of ownership of massive companies. When shares change hands, the buyer and seller agree on a price, and we find out the share price. We get a new share price every time a new trade happens (which can be hundreds of times a minute). Over time that share price can go up or down.

— The Big Picture is Being Obscured By Short-Term Fears. "Animal Spirits" are ruling the stock market. Millions of investors are afraid that the torrent of cash created by low interest rates, hefty piles of corporate reserves and even more giveaways in the new U.S. tax code won't be enough to juice up a world economy (outside of the developing world) that may be slowing down.
The rising dollar has already caused "an emerging market slowdown aggravated by U.S. tariffs, which already contributed to a bear market in China and Turkish lira crash. Dollar upside risk remains as the U.S. Federal Reserve intends to hike despite risks abroad, including a contentious Brazilian Presidential election, Italian budget, Brexit planning," he added.
“Do you remember how fragile the world seemed in 2008 when banks were collapsing and the stock market was in free fall? When you pictured the future, did it seem dark and dangerous? Or did it seem like the good times were just around the corner and the party was about to begin? The fact is, once a bear market ends, the following 12 months can see crucial market gains.”
There are two big caveats to realize. First, just because the Buffett Indicator signals that stocks are cheap doesn't mean that they won't get even cheaper. As you'll see in the chart in the next section, the Buffett Indicator didn't bottom out during the financial crisis until it was briefly below 50%. Conversely, just because the Buffett Indicator looks expensive (like it does now) doesn't mean that stocks can't continue to muscle higher.
According to the NYSE TICK, or uptick minus downtick, index, at precisely 2:43pm, the selling order flood was so big it not only surpassed the acute liquidation that was observed around 3PM on Wednesday, but the -1,793 print was one that had not been seen for 8 years: as Bay Crest Partners technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky wrote, the sudden and violent surge in selling as measured by the TICK index, when downtick volume overpowered upticks, was the lowest reading since the May 6, 2010 “flash crash” when liquidity dried up in markets, sending the market plummeting for a few minutes, as HFT briefly went haywire (or when a spoofer outsmarted the algos, depending on what version of events one believes).

Admittedly, getting to the right mix can be tricky. The percentage of stocks you're perfectly comfortable with when the market is going gangbusters may leave you frightened and anxious when stock prices plummet. One way to arrive at a portfolio mix that jibes with your risk tolerance and financial needs is to go to a tool like Vanguard's risk tolerance-asset allocation questionnaire. The tool suggests a percentage of stocks and bonds that should make sense for you. It will also show you how various mixes of stocks and bonds have fared over the long term and in up and down markets.
Many factors likely contributed to the collapse of the stock market. Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve (in August 1929 the discount rate was raised from 5 percent to 6 percent), the proliferation of holding companies and investment trusts (which tended to create debt), a multitude of large bank loans that could not be liquidated, and an economic recession that had begun earlier in the summer.
Stock markets witnessed a sudden sell-off in the afternoon dealings on Friday with Sensex crashing 1,128 points and Nifty falling well below 11,000-mark while DHFL nosedived 60% following the rout in NBFCs and housing finance companies. DHFL share price saw the biggest intraday plunge in its stock market trading history on Friday. Most of the housing finance companies bottomed to their respective multi-year lows in the trades. Shares of Yes Bank, Maruti Suzuki, HDFC, Infosys and Sun Pharma were the biggest negative point contributors to the headline indices.
To avoid losing too much in a market crash, investors should lower their stock allocations when prices get insanely high (like they are today!). It’s not a good idea to get out of stocks entirely because it is not possible say precisely when a crash will come. But it makes all the sense in the world to lower one’s stock allocation a bit because all lasting crashes take place starting from high prices.
During the mid- to late 1920s, the stock market in the United States underwent rapid expansion. It continued for the first six months following President Herbert Hoover’s inauguration in January 1929. The prices of stocks soared to fantastic heights in the great “Hoover bull market,” and the public, from banking and industrial magnates to chauffeurs and cooks, rushed to brokers to invest their surplus or their savings in securities, which they could sell at a profit. Billions of dollars were drawn from the banks into Wall Street for brokers’ loans to carry margin accounts. The spectacles of the South Sea Bubble and the Mississippi Bubble had returned. People sold their Liberty Bonds and mortgaged their homes to pour their cash into the stock market. In the midsummer of 1929 some 300 million shares of stock were being carried on margin, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a peak of 381 points in September. Any warnings of the precarious foundations of this financial house of cards went unheeded.
With IL&FS getting closer to an absolute liquidity crunch and defaulting on its ICDs and CPs, the RBI has started tightening the vigilance on banks and other financial institutions. For starters, the RBI asked banks to be cautious about buying HFC bonds considering their exposure to IL&FS debt. IL&FS has outstanding debt to the tune of $12.5 billion and the market is rife with news that most of the HFCs have large exposure to IL&FS debt. Of course, the promoters of Indiabulls and DHFL have denied any exposure but the news refuses to go away. The mood was also sourced by a large Indian mutual fund selling DHFL bonds in the market at an above-market yield of almost 11%. That also took its toll on the markets.
Now is the time to make sure you have a portfolio that you could live with through a crash. A typical crash will feel very different if you are 100% invested in stocks, than if you have some of your portfolio invested in bonds and other assets. The time to work out the right allocation for you is now, if you determine that you should not be completely in stocks but would rather have a 60%/40% stock/bond allocation, then it's critically important to determine that before a crash occurs. If you don't, you'll experience the worst of both worlds. You'll likely see the greatest losses during the crash, but also fail to benefit fully from any recovery. If you prepare ahead of time, you'll be better able to ride out any market events.
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