Hi Tamara, a vacation rental property owner in San Diego County I knew did well during the recession. Prices are much higher now and you’ll need to be a very good rental property manager. Take a look at the San Diego Housing market report if you didn’t read it. San Diego’s fantastic and the shortage there will never ease. My opinion is that you need to be a good marketer to keep it rented. If you build up a good database of returning renters, you should be okay. With VRBO and Airbnb, you’ll have extra reach too. With Trump bringing jobs and investment money back home, I can’t see a recession, just volatility and maybe some trade wars!
Another criticism of certain conventional risk models, is that they regard market crashes as extremely unlikely. Market models suggested 2008 was an incredibly rare event. However, the 1930s crash was fairly similar. Having extremely improbable events just eighty years apart makes very little sense. Of course, we could be massively unlucky, but it is of course far more likely that the model is wrong. And by wrong, we should be clear that we mean inappropriate for the high stress environments of a crash. Most of the time these models hold up just fine, but at the extremes they don't.
This was an attempt to hedge a 20% decline in $100,000 of equities so it performed pretty well in our hypothetical crash, protecting against nearly the entire loss. And you could also work backwards, as Spitznagel suggests in the second strategy described above, using this calculator. This way, you might say I want to protect against a $20,000 loss so I need to buy 61 put options ($20,000 divided by $328.10) rather than just the 55 we bought using the first strategy.

The stock market crash of 1929 – considered the worst economic event in world history – began on Thursday, October 24, 1929, with skittish investors trading a record 12.9 million shares. On October 28, dubbed “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 13 percent. The market fell another 12 percent the next day, “Black Tuesday.” While the crisis send shock waves across the financial world, there were numerous signs that a stock market crash was coming. What exactly caused the crash – and could it have been prevented?


Tech stocks, this year’s best-performing industry, will be in the spotlight, as executives from Twitter, Facebook and Google’s parent Alphabet begin testimony to Congress on Wednesday while Trump blasts about antitrust. Friday’s monthly payrolls data precedes a policy meeting by Federal Reserve later in the month, when the central bank is expected to raise interest rates for an eighth time since 2015.
Hi Christine, I can’t offer advice. There is a lot of risk in 2020. Trudeau may botch the trade negotiations and that could could start a Toronto slide. Without the auto sector, Whitby and Oshawa could get hit hard. Good thing is Trudeau could be gone next year and the Americans might listen to a new conservative government. Harper’s already visited the back door at the white house. From here to 2020 could be rough in Canada. Good luck with your sale.
"This is a kind of a panic sell-off occurs when the usually large amount of stop losses gets triggered as markets were not expecting such a drawdown in a single trading session," Mustafa Nadeem told FE Online. It was basically widespread to multiple companies, specifically, to NBFC space as there were concerns over credit risk coupled with that plunge in private banks, NBFC, and infrastructure housing finance companies, Nadeem said further. A lot of stop losses that were there in the market at much deeper levels of around 11,200 - 11,150, Mustafa Nadeem said. It was hardly 8-9 minutes of transactions that were much bigger that dragged the Benchmark index down. Though, on the flipside, There was buying seen at lower levels that pushed markets back above 11K level. Sensex was down almost a 1000 point within those few minutes, Mustafa Nadeem said. Technically this will change some technical setup in the medium term. If one would recall the same mode was seen in Early January this year. 
HELL ONFRICKING EARTH AND THE END OF ALL LIFE ON EARTH AS WE KNOW IT IS NOW LITERALLY UP IN OUR FACES, JESUS HELP OUR SORRY ASSES THAT WE are in the 3-5,000,000 shtf survivors. Then comes Planet X, Nibiru showing up in April 2016, tips the poles on the plante 24′, erases the planets magnetic field, meltdown the ice caps and causes 1000 mph fu.///i…g winds trashing up the entire city centers of the all countries of the globe. Flooding, windstorm, hail, Hurricane, sunamis, etc, Crop destruction, anmimals running and migrating to the center of the Country to safe areas, futher depleting animal stocks in coastline cites, leaving the only avaible meat source to eat, fat, larger over women and men who did not prep, now the new food source to sustain the Dred Lock and lantino, ganstar drug dealing survivors.
After the experience of the 1929 crash, stock markets around the world instituted measures to suspend trading in the event of rapid declines, claiming that the measures would prevent such panic sales. However, the one-day crash of Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 22.6%, was worse in percentage terms than any single day of the 1929 crash (although the combined 25% decline of October 28–29, 1929 was larger than October 19, 1987, and remains the worst two-day decline ever).[citation needed]
A better measure of the inadequacy of the current mélange of IT antiquities is that the SEC/CFTC report on the May 6 crash was released on September 30, 2010. Taking nearly five months to analyze the wildest ever five minutes of market data is unacceptable. CFTC Chair Gensler specifically blamed the delay on the “enormous” effort to collect and analyze data. What an enormous mess it is.
On October 29, William C. Durant joined with members of the Rockefeller family and other financial giants to buy large quantities of stocks to demonstrate to the public their confidence in the market, but their efforts failed to stop the large decline in prices. Due to the massive volume of stocks traded that day, the ticker did not stop running until about 7:45 p.m. The market had lost over $30 billion in the space of two days, including $14 billion on October 29 alone.[15]
There are other mitigating factors too such as the strengths in the economy, foreign investors buying property, and rising optimism and confidence since Donald Trump won the election.  At this point, we’re wondering if Obama and Clinton are relieved not to have to face the mess they created? Trump seems to be up to the task and yet, he has purportedly said he would enjoy watching the crash, even if it takes down some of his real estate empire. Is this just a comment on high home prices?
If you make 6% after taxes and fees on your investments, then you’re ahead by 3.5%, or $20k/year after the transaction fees are taken off. In Vancouver, like the couple from the G&M article, you’re ahead by more not only in percentage terms due to a higher price-to-rent, but also because the amounts are higher ($1M houses rather than $650k), so you’re even further ahead in dollar terms ($45k per year).
It's impossible to point to a single reason why any of myriad measurements of the stock market increase or decrease in a day. A company releasing great news about its business might draw more investors to buy its stock and push up the price, but you can't tell if they're speculating or if they've analyzed the stock and its financial basics and really believe it's a good price now.
Shares of tech companies, including the so-called FAANG stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet – have been market darlings for years. So when a sell-off gains steam, the stocks with the biggest gains are among the ones that investors sell first to lock in profits. Tech stocks have also been caught in the trade fight with China, as Trump's tough stance on Beijing is causing disruptions in their supply chain. Technology companies such as Facebook, Twitter and Alphabet are also facing intense regulatory scrutiny from the U.S. government.

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On October 24, many of the world's stock exchanges experienced the worst declines in their history, with drops of around 10% in most indices.[38] In the US, the DJIA fell 3.6%, i.e. not as much as other markets.[39] Instead, both the US dollar and Japanese yen soared against other major currencies, particularly the British pound and Canadian dollar, as world investors sought safe havens. Later that day, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, Charles Bean, suggested that "This is a once in a lifetime crisis, and possibly the largest financial crisis of its kind in human history."[40]
In Berkshire's 2017 shareholder letter, Buffett outlined four times when Berkshire stock fell 37% or more, representing what he called "truly major dips." The biggest decline occurred from March 1973 to January 1975, when Berkshire stock declined a whopping 59%. "In the next 53 years our shares (and others) will experience declines resembling those in the table," Buffett said about these four major declines. "No one can tell you when these will happen. The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.

The NASDAQ has surged by a similar percentage. In other words, the winds that brought Trump to the White House fueled some $5.0 trillion into Wall Street’s market capitalization. How much more energy can this already remarkable—and improbable—rally have? Chances are the rally will taper off. It could do this gradually or with a bang—that is, a crash.
Consequently, we believe, that irrespective of technology, markets can become fragile when imbalances arise as a result of large traders seeking to buy or sell quantities larger than intermediaries are willing to temporarily hold, and simultaneously long-term suppliers of liquidity are not forthcoming even if significant price concessions are offered.

Second, given that the effect of tariffs is to make imported goods more expensive so as to reduce the amount of goods imported, China may retaliate by imposing its own tariffs. Who knows what those will be? Whatever the case, this will make US goods less attractive in Chinese markets, and US companies relying on sales in China will end up making less money.
Home prices have outpaced income. The average income-to-housing cost ratio is 30 percent. In some metro areas, it's skyrocketed to 40 or 50 percent. Unfortunately, metro areas are also where the jobs are. That forces young people to pay more for rent to be close to a job that doesn't pay enough to buy a house. Thirty-two percent of home sales today are going to first time homebuyers, compared to 40 percent historically, says the National Association of Realtors. Typically, this buyer is 32, earns $72,000, and pays $182,500 for a home. A two-income couple pays $208,500 on average.
In the 694 days between 11 January 1973 and 6 December 1974, the New York Stock Exchange's Dow Jones Industrial Average benchmark suffered the seventh-worst bear market in its history, losing over 45% of its value.[2] 1972 had been a good year for the DJIA, with gains of 15% in the twelve months. 1973 had been expected to be even better, with Time magazine reporting just 3 days before the crash began that it was 'shaping up as a gilt-edged year'.[3] In the two years from 1972 to 1974, the American economy slowed from 7.2% real GDP growth to −2.1% contraction, while inflation (by CPI) jumped from 3.4% in 1972 to 12.3% in 1974.[1]
No mention of the paper trading driving the price down while banks and foreign governments are buying big time on this manipulated market. If these entities are buying these metals they see the value, not to mention that every major nation has a currency based on huge deficits. So where is the value? Precious metals that have retained value for thousands or years or paper currency that is backed by nothing more that a politicians promise?
Buffett is being optimistic. In fact, if history can offer any lessons, note that the Dow Jones 100 years ago, in 1917, stood at 1,328 points. That would be less than 20 times the current number. But Buffett probably doesn’t have to worry too much about the events that may or may not occur in the 22nd century. Now, as far as the present is concerned, you can be sure that Buffett chooses his words and predictions more carefully, as it were.
According to the NYSE TICK, or uptick minus downtick, index, at precisely 2:43pm, the selling order flood was so big it not only surpassed the acute liquidation that was observed around 3PM on Wednesday, but the -1,793 print was one that had not been seen for 8 years: as Bay Crest Partners technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky wrote, the sudden and violent surge in selling as measured by the TICK index, when downtick volume overpowered upticks, was the lowest reading since the May 6, 2010 “flash crash” when liquidity dried up in markets, sending the market plummeting for a few minutes, as HFT briefly went haywire (or when a spoofer outsmarted the algos, depending on what version of events one believes).
To avoid losing too much in a market crash, investors should lower their stock allocations when prices get insanely high (like they are today!). It’s not a good idea to get out of stocks entirely because it is not possible say precisely when a crash will come. But it makes all the sense in the world to lower one’s stock allocation a bit because all lasting crashes take place starting from high prices.
Some recent peer-reviewed research shows that flash crashes are not isolated occurrences, but have occurred quite often. Gao and Mizrach studied US equities over the period of 1993–2011. They show that breakdowns in market quality (such as flash crashes) have occurred in every year they examined and that, apart from the financial crisis, such problems have declined since the introduction of Reg NMS. They also show that 2010, while infamous for the Flash Crash, was not a year with an inordinate number of breakdowns in market quality.[11]
These bold plans have led the rating agency Moody’s to downgrade Italy’s sovereign debt to one notch above junk.  Uncertainty in Italy is a major geopolitical factor weighing on global sentiment.  Investors are rightly concerned about the Rome-Brussels stand-off, given that Italy is the Eurozone’s third-largest economy and its debt is held by every major bank in Europe—and most in the U.S. As interest rates rise in Italy, the prospect of insolvency rises alongside.
Shares in public companies can be traded. The stock market is just like any market. Think of the ASX as Gumtree, but for pieces of ownership of massive companies. When shares change hands, the buyer and seller agree on a price, and we find out the share price. We get a new share price every time a new trade happens (which can be hundreds of times a minute). Over time that share price can go up or down.
Sixth, Europe, too, will experience slower growth, owing to monetary-policy tightening and trade frictions. Moreover, populist policies in countries such as Italy may lead to an unsustainable debt dynamic within the eurozone. The still-unresolved “doom loop” between governments and banks holding public debt will amplify the existential problems of an incomplete monetary union with inadequate risk-sharing. Under these conditions, another global downturn could prompt Italy and other countries to exit the eurozone altogether.

A better measure of the inadequacy of the current mélange of IT antiquities is that the SEC/CFTC report on the May 6 crash was released on September 30, 2010. Taking nearly five months to analyze the wildest ever five minutes of market data is unacceptable. CFTC Chair Gensler specifically blamed the delay on the “enormous” effort to collect and analyze data. What an enormous mess it is.
Nifty and the Sensex saw a sharp correction on Friday, the last trading day of the week as financials rocked the Nifty boat. The Sensex at one point of time was down by over 1000 points and the Nifty had plunged below the 11,000 mark before semblance of sanity returned to the markets. There were 5 principal factors behind the sharp crash in the market on Friday.

Even better than not selling stocks during a recession is to actually go on the offense. In bull markets, investors can occasionally find reasonably priced, wonderful businesses. But they can rarely find wonderful businesses trading at a significant discount to their fair value. Stock market crashes are the rare times when high-quality businesses can be found in the clearance aisle. Go shopping!


Consider hiring a fee-only financial advisor to kick the tires on your portfolio and provide an independent perspective on your financial plan. In fact, it’s not uncommon for financial planners to have their own financial planner on their personal payroll for the same reason. An added bonus is knowing there’s someone to call to talk you through the tough times.
You haven’t seen the effects of *any* of Trumps decisions yet. And Obama’s decisions had virtually zero impact on creating the Great Recession. There wasn’t time. Unless you believe in teleportation, magic, and instantaneous changes to the marketplace and if that’s the case, I’m a nigerian prince building a bridge and boy have I got a business proposition for you…
But if U.S. GDP growth were to falter -- let’s say dip to 1% or lower on an annual basis -- then it would be really difficult to support existing valuations for companies in the technology and biotech arenas. And since tech and biotech have played such a critical role over the past nine-plus years in pushing stocks higher, they could easily be responsible for dragging the stock market into a correction.
It is not a big surprise, however, that many investors today remain interested in the forecasts of financial analysts regardless of their success. Humans in the past consulted oracles, crystal balls and tea leaves. It’s in our nature: As the proverb goes, “tell me a fact, and I'll learn; tell me a truth, and I’ll believe; but tell me a story and it will live in my heart forever.” We are attracted to story-telling, and when it comes to investing we seem to be searching for the most compelling narratives about the unknowable future, regardless of how accurate they turn out to be.
In 1979, Atari unveiled the Atari 400 and 800 computers, built around a chipset originally meant for use in a game console, and which retailed for the same price as their respective names. In 1981, IBM introduced the IBM 5150 PC with a $1,565 base price[6] (equivalent to $4,213 in 2017), while Sinclair Research introduced its low-end ZX81 microcomputer for £70 (equivalent to £246 in 2016). By 1982, new desktop computer designs were commonly providing better color graphics and sound than game consoles and personal computer sales were booming. The TI 99/4A and the Atari 400 were both at $349 (equivalent to $885 in 2017), Radio Shack's Color Computer sold at $379 (equivalent to $961 in 2017), and Commodore International had just reduced the price of the VIC-20 to $199 (equivalent to $505 in 2017) and the 64 to $499 (equivalent to $1,265 in 2017).[7][8]
"American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance. Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. (The Dow Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions. And don't forget that shareholders received substantial dividends throughout the century as well.)"

Any of the measurements people quote—any of the stock market indexes which go up and down—are just measurements. They're averages. They're big bundles of numbers all mixed together. In all truth, they only reflect a snapshot of a point in time. They're numbers that stocks happened to end on when trading stopped for the day (or, at least, paused until after hours trading took over).

Professor:        I certainly believe so, but this will happen with extreme volatility. I am more worried about the retail investor the so called silent majority. With this wild fluctuation, his survival rate in the market is next to zero. He will not easily believe that the market will bounce back in the near term. You cannot blame him. His ability to withstand paper loss (temporary) is very small. So he will easily buckle and sell out. All I can say is that we are slowing moving into a panic mode. We still have to wait a while to see the green shoots. Are we ready to wait?
In 2013, the stock market finally recovered. In the first six months, it gained more points than in any year on record. Stock prices rose faster than earnings, creating an asset bubble. The Dow set over 250 closing records until February 2018. Fears of inflation and higher interest rates almost sent the Dow into a correction. Like many other past stock market crashes, it did not lead to a recession.
During 1930 and 1931 in particular, unemployed workers went on strike, demonstrated in public, and otherwise took direct action to call public attention to their plight. Within the UK, protests often focused on the so-called Means Test, which the government had instituted in 1931 as a way to limit the amount of unemployment payments made to individuals and families. For working people, the Means Test seemed an intrusive and insensitive way to deal with the chronic and relentless deprivation caused by the economic crisis. The strikes were met forcefully, with police breaking up protests, arresting demonstrators, and charging them with crimes related to the violation of public order.[39]

Even better than not selling stocks during a recession is to actually go on the offense. In bull markets, investors can occasionally find reasonably priced, wonderful businesses. But they can rarely find wonderful businesses trading at a significant discount to their fair value. Stock market crashes are the rare times when high-quality businesses can be found in the clearance aisle. Go shopping!

The Housing Market Crash of 2007 was the worst housing crash in U.S. history. The Housing Market Crash of 2007 was the cause of the financial crisis. This nearly caused the U.S. to experience another depression like the Great Depression. There are a number of things we can look at to determine how the housing bubble occurred and what happened to cause the bubble to collapse.
Not only has subprime lending seen a major decline, but mortgages have also become much harder to attain due to stringent lending standards. According to CoreLogic’s Housing Credit Index, loans originated in 2016 were among the highest quality originated in the last 15 years. This is greatly due to the type of borrowers able to qualify for loans. The current average credit score for borrowers being granted mortgages is 739. In October 2009, the average FICO score was 686, according to Fair Isaac. The lowest one percent of mortgages issued have credit scores averaging 622-624. Compared to the average range in 2001 of 490-510, the standard to get financing has risen substantially, and as a result, the likelihood of default has dropped. Lenders have done this to ensure the economy doesn’t again become propped on bad loans like it was leading up to the Great Recession.
Are you among the millions of Americans who lost thousands in the tech-stock crash of 2000? Do you wish somebody had said something about the dangers of staking your future on overpriced, risky investments? Today's housing market faces a similar crisis, and John Talbott is saying something about it. Find out about the price risks inherent in home ownership in today's economy, and steps you can take to protect yourself and your family from financial hardship, in Talbott's cautionary but convincing The Coming Crash in the Housing Market.
You’re correct – some are predicting a blood bath – but they have been doing so for years. And I agree some segments of the Sydney property market will fall more than 20% – especially all those new apartments many of which were sold to unsuspecting investors. I’ve read the sources you’ve quoted and I’ve also read the comments from DR Phil Lowe – our RBA Governor – I don’t think he’s a fool – I’ll listen to him
Spread your risk. Having a well-designed mix of investments is a great idea anytime, but especially so in a down market. That's because you don't take a pounding by having all your eggs in one potentially leaky basket. Studies show that holding a judicious mix of growth and value stocks, possibly in international as well as U.S. companies, and some bonds and cash investments too, is a great way to minimize investment loss.
The 1987 Crash was a worldwide phenomenon. The FTSE 100 Index lost 10.8% on that Monday and a further 12.2% the following day. In the month of October, all major world markets declined substantially. The least affected was Austria (a fall of 11.4%) while the most affected was Hong Kong with a drop of 45.8%. Out of 23 major industrial countries, 19 had a decline greater than 20%.[28]
The combined selling pressure from the sell algorithm, HFTs, and other traders drove the price of the E-Mini S&P 500 down approximately 3% in just four minutes from the beginning of 2:41 p.m. through the end of 2:44 p.m. During this same time cross-market arbitrageurs who did buy the E-Mini S&P 500, simultaneously sold equivalent amounts in the equities markets, driving the price of SPY (an exchange-traded fund which represents the S&P 500 index) also down approximately 3%.
Perhaps the best way to hedge your portfolio against a crash, is to make sure you always have a healthy portion of it allocated to cash. The amount you allocate to cash really depends on how much volatility you are happy to tolerate. More cash means you stand to lose less, but you will probably lose out on returns in the long run. A lower cash balance will probably lead to higher overall returns, but will also mean higher volatility.

These five tech and consumer service giants have accounted for a significant portion of the S&P 500’s and Invesco QQQ Trust’s gains in recent years. Further, data from Bloomberg finds that the original FANG stocks (minus Apple) are slated to grow sales at an average rate of 36% in the second quarter, which is four times faster than the average S&P 500 company.  However, the FAANG stocks aren’t impervious to a change of heart.
According to the NYSE TICK, or uptick minus downtick, index, at precisely 2:43pm, the selling order flood was so big it not only surpassed the acute liquidation that was observed around 3PM on Wednesday, but the -1,793 print was one that had not been seen for 8 years: as Bay Crest Partners technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky wrote, the sudden and violent surge in selling as measured by the TICK index, when downtick volume overpowered upticks, was the lowest reading since the May 6, 2010 “flash crash” when liquidity dried up in markets, sending the market plummeting for a few minutes, as HFT briefly went haywire (or when a spoofer outsmarted the algos, depending on what version of events one believes).
The Dow Jones is flying, but the risks of a crash are many and ready to materialize. Donald Trump was elected almost a year ago, at the time of writing. The markets were supposed to have crashed. They did for a few hours. Despite the many protests, marches, and witch hunts that the 2016 presidential election has caused, the Dow has gained about 30% since November 8, 2016.
In other words, bear markets are part of investing. You can’t avoid them – but you can make sure a bear market doesn’t wipe you out. Rule number one is to diversify, and periodically rebalance your portfolio. When a correction, stock market crash or bear market comes along, the stocks that fall the most are those that are trading at the highest valuations, those with the most debt, and those with the lowest margins.
On October 31, Halloween, children and adults alike enjoy playing with the frightful themes of death surrounding the feast’s mixture of Christian All Saints’ Day and Celtic pagan origins. But, in 2017, if you are one of millions of people who have investments, here’s something all too real and scary to rob you of your sleep. This Warren Buffett Indicator predicts a stock market crash in 2018.
Dennis Cisterna III was kind enough to provide this article that discusses the key factors that drive the housing market. Dennis is Chief Revenue Officer of Investability Real Estate, Inc. and an expert on housing trends and economic indicators. I chose Dennis to write this piece because I was so impressed with his podcast interview on my show. Dennis talks about the actual numbers when it comes to new house builds, lending guidelines, and if we are in fact due for another housing crash anytime soon. I also did a lot of research on my own about lending guidelines, affordability, building starts, and other issues affecting the housing market.
Marc, I hope you and your kids can stay in So Cal, but can you see how the money and people are being vilified for wanting to be part of California’s successful economy and lifestyle. The real villains are those who are preventing development. And that new development really drives the economy, thus giving California a chance to compete in the global age. Other cities in Canada and the UK have the same problem and in each case it’s politicians squeezing supply. And the actions they’re taking does point to a recession eventually. If California’s polticians remove constraints, you’ll have lower prices in San Diego, LA and the SF Bay Area. The market alway solves itself.
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