Some enduring red flags, Filia said, are in the form of politics and geopolitics — growing populism across Europe as well as Middle East and Asian tensions. But more than that he sees shrinking liquidity — central bank spending flows in reverse for the first time in a decade — as the "first real crash test" for momentum and volatility, as well as rising interest rates.
Finally, higher rates are especially problematic for so-called growth stocks, which includes tech stocks. "The lure for these stocks is growth in earnings down the road, but when interest rates are higher, the future value of those earnings streams declines," Hickey says. On Wednesday, video streamer Netflix fell 8.4 percent, Facebook tumbled 4.1 percent and Apple fell 4.6 percent.
Note: The statements and information presented in this post is not intended as professional investment advice. It is solely an exploration of stock investing and the risks, perils, and behavior of stock markets and the economy. No one should rely on a single source of information or a single stock market and investing professional’s advice. The overall message of the post might be to diversify stock, real estate, and cash/gold holdings as a hedge against stock market crashes. Investors should look into hedging strategies but be aware that even hedging may provide limited protection from a crash.
“There’s no question when you look at last week, some of the selling is the result of programmatic selling because as volatility goes up, some of these algorithms force people to sell,” Solomon told CNBC’s Wilfred Frost. “Market structure can, at times, contribute to volatility and one of the things that we’re spending a bunch of time thinking about at the firm is how changes in market structure over the course of the last 10 years will affect market activity.”
Markets can also be stabilized by large entities purchasing massive quantities of stocks, essentially setting an example for individual traders and curbing panic selling. However, these methods are not only unproven, they may not be effective. In one famous example, the Panic of 1907, a 50 percent drop in stocks in New York set off a financial panic that threatened to bring down the financial system. J. P. Morgan, the famous financier and investor, convinced New York bankers to step in and use their personal and institutional capital to shore up markets.
In addition, the rapid growth of the video game industry led to an increased demand for video games, but which the manufacturers over-projected. An analyst for Goldman Sachs had stated in 1983 that the demand for video games was up 100% from 1982, but the manufacturing output increased by 175%, creating a surplus in the market. Raymond Kassar, the CEO of Atari, had recognized in 1982 that there would become a point of saturation for the industry, but did not expect this to occur until about half of American households had a video game console; at the time, only about 15 million machines had been sold, far below this expected point.
6750 ft up on top of a mountain lends some perspective that’s for sure, The quiet is great for the sole. We still have to work during the week. On the weekends we work for ourselves, gathering firewood learning how to grow food etc. Freedom at least for me is eliminating the need for outside inputs. We have just enough solar power to be comfortable running our house. Woodstove for heat, well for our water. Growing some vegetables for food. Every year is easier than the year before.
In late 1985 and early 1986, the United States economy shifted from a rapid recovery from the early 1980s recession to a slower expansion, resulting in a brief "soft landing" period as the economy slowed and inflation dropped. The stock market advanced significantly, with the Dow peaking in August 1987 at 2,722 points, or 44% over the previous year's closing of 1,895 points. Further financial uncertainty may have resulted from the collapse of OPEC in early 1986, which led to a crude oil price decrease of more than 50% by mid-1986.
It’s beyond Black Monday. The next stock market crash will combine the effects of Black Monday with the tech bubble of 1999-2000 and the recession that resulted from the crash of 2007-2008. The Shiller CAPE ratio, which measures a stock’s performance by comparing its price against earnings over a 10-year period, has reached the very point when Alan Greenspan pronounced his famous “irrational exuberance” speech. (Source: “The stock market’s valuation is back to the point where Greenspan warned of ‘irrational exuberance’,” CNBC, October 31, 2017.)
But Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, lists a number of global disputes coming to a head this fall, including tariffs on imports from China, the potential for auto tariffs on other countries, Iran oil sanctions kicking in, Congress facing another budget deadline and the election in November. "The risk calendar gets quite big this fall," he said. "September is part of it, but it's really the whole fall period."
That being said, the Buffett Indicator, while it's not a flawless indicator, does tend to peak during hot stock markets and bottom during weak markets. And as a general rule, if the indicator falls below 80%-90% or so, it has historically signaled that stocks are cheap. On the other hand, levels significantly higher than 100% can indicate stocks are expensive.
Hi Aaron, so nice to hear from someone from Nebraska. I see how prices are rising fast again this summer. I’m wondering that with few listings, what kind of home would you get if you bought this year? Could you find a real gem? The US economy will grow so prices in Omaha are likely to rise strongly. Soybean prices are way down, there’s a lot of risk for 2018/2019? I suspect rent until you’re sure is the best advice. Good luck with your decision!
The Housing Bellwether Barometer is an index of homebuilders and mortgage companies. In 2017, it skyrocketed like it did in 2004 and 2005. That's according to its creator, Stack Financial Management, who used it to predict the 2008 financial crisis. Similarly, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF has risen 400 percent since March 2009. It outperformed the S&P 500 rise of 270 percent.
And from this telling graphic above, the shocking rise and fall of detached home prices tells us something is wrong with the Toronto real estate market. Could a Toronto housing crash occur? The renegotiation of the NAFTA deal may be the factor that starts the slide. President Trump’s goal is US jobs and economic health and he’s already stated he wants a better deal with Canada. It makes sense that he would want auto makers and parts manufacturing to be done in the US. The Canadian dairy and lumber industries are just a distraction.
The cost of ownership in the most high priced markets is going up even more. Why? The limitation on the mortgage interest deduction to $750K and the limitation on the sales and property tax deduction to $10K. With the increase in interest rates, the partial non deductibility of interest and taxes, the overall cost of ownership is going up. Most people will feel the punch in their guts next year when they file the 2018 taxes. That is when most folks would realize what hit them was not a pleasant surprise!
And just when you think that this may all be a bunch of bul…h…t. A free energy inventer gets a phone call from a Tv morning show, calling him raising hell on his ass telling him, that he needs to buy up all the free energy electrical devices now, the free energy inventor declines his offer, Host hangs up on him pissed and then calls him back asking him nicely if he could allow him to send him a truck to empty his entire store inventory, the owner declines. Store owner inventor is told by said talk show host, that the elites are getting everything in place to plug the plug. Its obvious that its a planned calapse. The inventor tells us that we will be needing electicity to power up devices, because he was told that the grid will go down, and obvious planned EMP ATTACK on all our major cites, “planned” it seems.
"I think we're going to work through this continued intersection of domestic and international political risk, with the fact the economy is very good and the earnings projection is very good, and the valuations are creeping up, but they're by no means excessive, with interest rates at this level," said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG. "But our view has been all along that basically you've got to fix the relationship with China in order to really make material further upside progress."
The crash on October 19, 1987, a date that is also known as Black Monday, was the climactic culmination of a market decline that had begun five days before on October 14. The DJIA fell 3.81 percent on October 14, followed by another 4.60 percent drop on Friday, October 16. On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrials Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its value in one day. The S&P 500 dropped 20.4%, falling from 282.7 to 225.06. The NASDAQ Composite lost only 11.3%, not because of restraint on the part of sellers, but because the NASDAQ market system failed. Deluged with sell orders, many stocks on the NYSE faced trading halts and delays. Of the 2,257 NYSE-listed stocks, there were 195 trading delays and halts during the day. The NASDAQ market fared much worse. Because of its reliance on a "market making" system that allowed market makers to withdraw from trading, liquidity in NASDAQ stocks dried up. Trading in many stocks encountered a pathological condition where the bid price for a stock exceeded the ask price. These "locked" conditions severely curtailed trading. On October 19, trading in Microsoft shares on the NASDAQ lasted a total of 54 minutes.
Shares of tech companies, including the so-called FAANG stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet – have been market darlings for years. So when a sell-off gains steam, the stocks with the biggest gains are among the ones that investors sell first to lock in profits. Tech stocks have also been caught in the trade fight with China, as Trump's tough stance on Beijing is causing disruptions in their supply chain. Technology companies such as Facebook, Twitter and Alphabet are also facing intense regulatory scrutiny from the U.S. government.
Jet Airways (India) shares slumped more than 7% on Friday to nearly 4-year low after India's biggest full-service airline said that income tax officials were conducting a survey at its premises. The stock of Jet Airways slipped as much as 7.1% to Rs 225.85, its lowest since October 2014. Up until Wednesday's closing price, Jet Airways shares have declined by 70% in the current year so far. "Income Tax officials are conducting a survey at the premises of the company since 19 September 2018. The company is fully cooperating with the authorities and are responding to the queries raised by the Income Tax Authorities," Jet Airways said in an exchange filing.