Thanks Ben. If I knew I’d be rich! Yes, everyone’s looking ahead to 2019 and I’m developing a post on the topic right now. We likely won’t see a crash anytime soon, unless the G7 get carried away by all the tariff talk. Which could happen. The rest of the world has become addicted to US spending, although they describe that as “beneficial interdependent trade.” They’re actually getting surly about it, (G7 meeting) so we can’t say this won’t escalate into something bad. It looks like they’re going to threaten Trump with Tariffs and numbers and see if he bites. He hasn’t even dealt with China yet, so this does look scary. As you said, prices are rising and the demand is there. As long as Millennials are able to buy, this boom could go on a long time. However, how many of the G7 would enjoy seeing the US economy plummet?
On October 19th 1987, $500 billion in market capitalization was evaporated from the Dow Jones stock index. Markets in nearly every country around the world plunged in a similar fashion. When individual investors heard that a massive stock market crash was occurring, they rushed to call their brokers to sell their stocks. This was unsuccessful because each broker had many clients. Many people lost millions of dollars instantly. There are stories of some unstable individuals who had lost large amounts of money who went to their broker’s office with a gun and started shooting. A few brokers were killed despite the fact that they had no control over the market action. The majority of investors who were selling did not even know why they were selling except for the fact that “everyone else was selling.” This emotionally-charged behavior is one of the main reasons that the stock market crashed so dramatically. After the October 19th plunge, many futures and stock exchanges were shut down for a day.
It is not a big surprise, however, that many investors today remain interested in the forecasts of financial analysts regardless of their success. Humans in the past consulted oracles, crystal balls and tea leaves. It’s in our nature: As the proverb goes, “tell me a fact, and I'll learn; tell me a truth, and I’ll believe; but tell me a story and it will live in my heart forever.” We are attracted to story-telling, and when it comes to investing we seem to be searching for the most compelling narratives about the unknowable future, regardless of how accurate they turn out to be.
“I think as Americans lose their jobs, they are going to see the cost of living going up rather dramatically, and so this is going to make it particularly painful,” Schiff said. “This is a bubble not just in the stock market, but the entire economy,” he told Fox News Business. Schiff is predicting a recession, accompanied by rising consumer prices, that will be “far more painful” than the 2007-2009 Great Recession.
The American mobilization for World War II at the end of 1941 moved approximately ten million people out of the civilian labor force and into the war. World War II had a dramatic effect on many parts of the economy, and may have hastened the end of the Great Depression in the United States. Government-financed capital spending accounted for only 5 percent of the annual U.S. investment in industrial capital in 1940; by 1943, the government accounted for 67 percent of U.S. capital investment.
One factor which supports the argument against a property price crash is ongoing strong population growth. Over the year to the March quarter it remained high at 1.6%, which is at the top end of developed countries. As can be seen in the next chart, net overseas migration has become an increasingly important driver of population growth in recent years.
However, the psychological effects of the crash reverberated across the nation as businesses became aware of the difficulties in securing capital market investments for new projects and expansions. Business uncertainty naturally affects job security for employees, and as the American worker (the consumer) faced uncertainty with regards to income, naturally the propensity to consume declined. The decline in stock prices caused bankruptcies and severe macroeconomic difficulties, including contraction of credit, business closures, firing of workers, bank failures, decline of the money supply, and other economically depressing events.
Until 1982, few third-party console games existed other than Activision's. Imagic and Games by Apollo demonstrated their own 2600 cartridges in January 1982, and Coleco announced several 2600 and Intellivision games. Parker Brothers, CBS Video Games, and Mattel also announced 2600 cartridges at the February Toy Fair, and Coleco announced the ColecoVision. At the Summer 1982 Consumer Electronics Show, 17 companies including MCA Inc. and Fox Video Games announced 90 new Atari games. By 1983, an estimated 100 companies were vying to get a foothold in the video game market.
I’m ready, but nervous. IF, this is the big one, and you are wanting this or think you will pop some corn and enjoy the show, then you are unaware of the big picture. Yes it may be enjoyable for a while (I get no joy from this BTW), it WILL effect you in ways you haven’t yet thought of. Yes those of us that are prepared will weather it better than those not prepared, but this isn’t going to be fun in the long run.
The joint 2010 report "portrayed a market so fragmented and fragile that a single large trade could send stocks into a sudden spiral", and detailed how a large mutual fund firm selling an unusually large number of E-Mini S&P contracts first exhausted available buyers, and then how high-frequency traders (HFT) started aggressively selling, accelerating the effect of the mutual fund's selling and contributing to the sharp price declines that day.
The video game crash of 1983 (known as the Atari shock in Japan) was a large-scale recession in the video game industry that occurred from 1983 to 1985, primarily in North America. The crash was attributed to several factors, including market saturation in the number of game consoles and available games, and waning interest in console games in favor of personal computers. Revenues peaked at around $3.2 billion in 1983, then fell to around $100 million by 1985 (a drop of almost 97 percent). The crash was a serious event that brought an abrupt end to what is retrospectively considered the second generation of console video gaming in North America.
Another thing you can do if you're anticipating a market crash is to include a bunch of defensive stocks in your portfolio, as they tend to get less punished during a market downturn. Defensive stocks belong to companies whose fortunes aren't very tied to the economy's movements. For example, people might put off buying refrigerators or cars during a recession, but they'll still buy groceries, socks, soaps, gas, medicine, electricity and diapers. Thus, food, tobacco, energy, and pharmaceuticals are some defensive industries, seen as more stable than their "cyclical" counterparts, such as the homebuilding, steel, automobile, and airline industries. You don't have to avoid cyclical industries in your investing, but know that they can move sharply in relationship to the economy.