i would completely disagree with you on the lending to people who should not have gotten loans part. I was a person who got a loan during that time. I made all my payments, but it was a stated income loan with almost no verification of income. I basically said I want to buy a house for this much and they said okay. Things are so much different now.
"Dollar dominated the last 24 hours as the rupee collapsed to a fresh all-time low on spot. Policymakers tried everything, monetary intervention, and verbal steroids and even tried to circulate rumours about an "oil window". Nothing worked," said a Kotak Securities report. "The RBI added fuel to fire by denying any attempts to introduce special dollar window for the oil marketing companies." Moreover, rising Italian credit spreads whacked the euro, further pressuring the rupee.
Bond strategists have been warning that the second half of September could bring a slight jump in yields because pension funds have been loading up on Treasurys and other bonds before the Sept. 15 deadline for a change in tax laws for corporate sponsors of funds. They believe that buying has depressed yields, which move opposite prices, and the end of those purchases could send yields higher.
According to Lee, there are two key factors that will soon bring more institutional interest to the markets. First, it will be the upcoming launch of the digital assets platform Bakkt by the operator of major global exchange New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Announced in August this year, Bakkt recently confirmed a “target” launch date for Jan. 24, 2019.

On Black Monday, the markets were a bit different than today. That’s the explanation that many market optimists like to offer when they explain why another Black Monday can’t happen. That is, the market cannot lose some 23% of its value in a single trading session. They might be right, but in the opposite direction. The markets now have human as well as computer input through so-called robot trading. They have more variables and are more complicated. But information and risks travel much faster. If anything, the risks of a major market crash are higher today.
There's always a chance that the sell-off can morph into a decline of 10 percent or more from the market's September peak, which could thrust the market into its second so-called price correction of the year, Zaccarelli says. Still, he predicts that any downturn won't become a bear market, or 20 percent drop, and will instead turn out to be a good buying opportunity for investors with time to ride out any storm.

Obviously, if the market crashes, it's a good time to go shopping for bargains. The stocks tied to lots of wonderful businesses are likely to be depressed -- perhaps significantly so. But if you don't have some ready cash (or access to cash) to take advantage of that, you could be out of luck. Or you might find yourself selling out of some stocks at depressed prices (thus realizing losses or shrunken gains) in order to snap up shares of more compelling stocks. That's not ideal.
The Fed didn't realize a collapse was brewing until March 2007. It realized that hedge fund housing losses could threaten the economy. Throughout the summer, banks became unwilling to lend to each other. They were afraid that they would receive bad MBS in return. Bankers didn't know how much bad debt they had on their books. No one wanted to admit it. If they did, then their credit rating would be lowered. Then, their stock price would fall, and they would be unable to raise more funds to stay in business.
First, take a look at where you now stand, by which I mean make sure you really know how your money is currently invested. The single most important thing you want to confirm is your asset allocation, or the percentage of your holdings that are invested in stocks vs. bonds. That will determine how your portfolio holds up if the market takes a major dive.
Currently, the U.S. stock market is in the midst of one of the longest bull markets in its history. Since bottoming out in March 2009, the broad-based S&P 500 (INDEX: ^GSPC), led by a strong rally in technology stocks and other growth industries, has surged by more than 325%! Mind you, the stock market has historically returned 7% a year, inclusive of dividend reinvestment and adjusted for inflation. So, to say that things are going well right now would be an understatement.

Everyone seems to have an explanation for why stock prices rise and fall. People are happy about the economy. People are worried about the economy. People want interest rates to rise. People want interest rates to fall. Europe looks good. Europe looks bad. Canada's raising tariffs. Canada reported extraordinary growth. Company A met its earnings goals. Company B didn't. Inflation numbers looked bad. Inflation numbers looked good. Gold is hot. Silver prices fell. Oil supplies are running low—or high. Unemployment numbers changed too much or too little. Euros went up against the dollar. Who knows?
The release of so many new games in 1982 flooded the market. Most stores had insufficient space to carry new games and consoles. As stores tried to return the surplus games to the new publishers, the publishers had neither new products nor cash to issue refunds to the retailers. Many publishers, including Games by Apollo and US Games, quickly folded.[citation needed] Unable to return the unsold games to defunct publishers, stores marked down the titles and placed them in discount bins and sale tables. Recently released games which initially sold for US $35 (equivalent to $92 in 2018) were in bins for $5 ($13 in 2018).[30][31] Crane said that "those awful games flooded the market at huge discounts, and ruined the video game business".[27] By June 1983, the market for the more expensive games had shrunk dramatically and was replaced by a new market of rushed-to-market, low-budget games.

Consider hiring a fee-only financial advisor to kick the tires on your portfolio and provide an independent perspective on your financial plan. In fact, it’s not uncommon for financial planners to have their own financial planner on their personal payroll for the same reason. An added bonus is knowing there’s someone to call to talk you through the tough times.

Hi Kesh. You’re welcome. I can’t advise you however if you check the Toronto condo market during February, you’re giving the market time to bottom out. Anything under $500k will in extreme demand because of the stress test rules. $900 a square foot is scary, especially for a 1 bedroom. However, immigration is rising fast, there’s not much inventory, and there is a lot of reason to consider the possibility of a housing boom rather than a housing crash. The government doesn’t want to sincerely increase supply, so they’re going to try to kill demand. That’s where they run the risk of killing an economy that’s still dependent on real estate. But Millennials need somewhere to live as do all these new immigrants. The question you should consider before buying is will Trudeau and Wynne get routed out of office before they create a recession? Are you investing or do you need to live in the unit?

Interesting points. To say a 2 billion dollar a day trade deficit is meaningless might be understating it. Running trade deficits every year is dangerous and leads to the recession you’re fearing. It’s the trade policies that make it happen. The global economy was highly dependent on US willing to run huge trade deficits and Europe and China are undergoing withdrawal problems.
Thanks for voicing your opinion too Violet. This isn’t Nazi Germany and it’s important that we can all speak freely without feeling threatened. I think my portrayal of Obama and Clinton was generous. I’ve witnessed the downfall of the US in the last 30 years and it’s awful to see. I hope you’ll get a chance to read my other post on the US debt: http://www.gordcollins.com/investment-2/massive-deficit-debt-china/ Do you think Obama generated the results he did get with that $20 trillion debt? If you don’t bring back the good paying jobs and reduce the deficit, how will you pay off that horrible debt? The US needed a strong leader, and although the Tweeting @realDonaldTrump is creating more friction, you have to admire how he’s standing up against the media who have a stake in the status quo. I hope as well that he will level the playing field between multinational corporations and small businesses like yours. My loyalty is with SMBs like your company!
Although we’ve seen more recognition of cryptocurrencies as investment vehicle, they’re still considered high-risk investments. Some see Bitcoin as safe-haven in case of a global crash due to its decentralized nature, the low correlation with the stock markets and the limited supply. Though, there is no reliable data available on how cryptocurrencies behave during a stock market crash. However, if you’re willing to take the risk, adding a small percentage of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency stocks to a diversified portfolio could be a worthwhile investment decision.
But if U.S. GDP growth were to falter -- let’s say dip to 1% or lower on an annual basis -- then it would be really difficult to support existing valuations for companies in the technology and biotech arenas. And since tech and biotech have played such a critical role over the past nine-plus years in pushing stocks higher, they could easily be responsible for dragging the stock market into a correction.

If you break up the components of the correction, the entire fall was concentrated in financials and other sectors where there are valuation concerns. Even within the large cap space, the correction was sharpest in stocks like Kotak Bank, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance etc where there already are valuation concerns. The basket selling was largely restricted to stocks like Yes Bank, Indiabulls and DHFL, which were in the news as well as stocks where valuation concerns have been around for quite some time.
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Also, be sure you're focused on percentages, not points, when thinking about stock market movements. This is something the media doesn't sufficiently understand, often reporting market drops in points instead of percentages. As an example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by a whopping 1,175 points in a single day in February 2018, which sure sounds like a lot -- especially compared with 1987's "Black Monday," when the Dow fell 508 points. But in percentage points, it was a meaningful yet not catastrophic 4.6% decline -- while 1987's drop wiped out 22.6% of the market's value at the time. The Dow was near 26,000 at the time of this writing, and the S&P 500 was around 2,800. At those levels, if the Dow "plunges" by 260 points, remember that it would be just a 1% move. Even a 1,000-point drop would be just a 3.85% decline.
In 2011 trades by high-frequency traders accounted for 28% of the total volume in the futures markets, which included currencies and commodities, an increase from 22% in 2009. However, the growth of computerized and high-frequency trading in commodities and currencies coincided with a series of "flash crashes" in those markets. The role of human market makers, who match buyers and sellers and provide liquidity to the market, was more and more played by computer programs. If those program traders pulled back from the market, then big "buy" or "sell" orders could have led to sudden, big swings. It would have increased the probability of surprise distortions, as in the equity markets, according to a professional investor.[citation needed] In February 2011, the sugar market took a dive of 6% in just one second. On March 1, 2011, cocoa futures prices dropped 13% in less than a minute on the Intercontinental Exchange. Cocoa plunged $450 to a low of $3,217 a metric ton before rebounding quickly. The U.S. dollar tumbled against the yen on March 16, 2011, falling 5% in minutes, one of its biggest moves ever. According to a former cocoa trader: ' "The electronic platform is too fast; it doesn't slow things down" like humans would. '[81]

The trouble began a week ago in the West, where in the early evening a single grain of sand fell on a portion of our pile that was already very steep. This triggered a small avalanche, as a few grains toppled downhill toward the East. Unfortunately, the pile hasn’t been managed properly in the West, and these few grains entered into another region of the pile that was also already steep. Soon more grains toppled and throughout the night the avalanche grew in size; by the next morning, it was well out of control. In retrospect, there is nothing surprising. One fateful grain falling a week ago led to a chain of events that swept catastrophe across the pile and into our own backyard here in the East. Had the Western authorities been more responsible, they could have removed some sand from the initial spot, and then none of this would have happened. It is a tragedy that we can only hope will never be repeated."
“My view is that the markets are extremely overvalued, and can fall even 2,000 points from here. (Sensex). The Nifty can correct by about 1,000 points. Nothing has changed fundamentally, I mean we have the same macro-economic situation, etc, but when a sell-off happens, nobody can predict. Financials, especially NBFCs are overvalued,” Rajat Sharma, founder, Sana Securities told FE Online.
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The US Fed meets on September 26th but the CME Fed tool is already indicating a probability of 95% for a rate hike by the Fed. That is not good news for the Indian markets. It will impel the RBI to front end another rate hike to prevent any risk of capital market outflows. Also higher Fed rates will lead to a stronger dollar and that by itself will put pressure on the INR, which is already vulnerable at this point of time.
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