That was six years ago. Funnily enough, the author of this blog, David Haggith, recently posted an article titled I Bet My Blog on a 2018 Economic Collapse. Basically, he is going to throw sh*t at the wall until something finally sticks – then he’ll pontificate to everyone about how his prediction was correct. It is worth noting that he also predicted that 2016 would be the year of the economic apocalypse and that he was “fairly sure” that stocks would slump in January, 2017.
In 2011 high-frequency traders moved away from the stock market as there had been lower volatility and volume. The combined average daily trading volume in the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market in the first four months of 2011 fell 15% from 2010, to an average of 6.3 billion shares a day. Trading activities declined throughout 2011, with April's daily average of 5.8 billion shares marking the lowest month since May 2008. Sharp movements in stock prices, which were frequent during the period from 2008 to the first half of 2010, were in a decline in the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, the VIX, which fell to its lowest level in April 2011 since July 2007.[83]
When living in Australia between 1995 and 2005, I worked with someone who was 100% convinced that the Australian house price increases were unsustainable, that the market had peaked, and that selling out and getting back in a couple of years was a brilliant idea. Unfortunately, this was around 2002 or 2003 and all that Australian prices did for the next 7 or 8 years was to continue to increase. Last I heard from her, she and her husband had given up any hope of ever again owning their own house.
The heads of the SEC and CFTC often point out that they are running an IT museum. They have photographic evidence to prove it—the highest-tech background that The New York Times (on September 21, 2010) could find for a photo of Gregg Berman, the SEC’s point man on the Flash, was a corner with five PCs, a Bloomberg, a printer, a fax, and three TVs on the wall with several large clocks.
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As longtime China watchers know, the country’s still-immature markets are in many ways more bubble-prone than their Western counterparts, thanks to heavy involvement from retail investors who often take cues from government policy, rather than quaint notions like earnings. Tanking Chinese stocks—the Shanghai Composite is now down nearly 25% from its January peak—could therefore be taken...
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U.S. stock futures rise sharply, with Wall Street getting a lift from a record Black Friday spending weekend and as oil prices rebound; Cyber Monday is expected to bring in $7.8 billion in sales, according to Adobe Analytics; Mitsubishi Motors dismisses Carlos Ghosn as chairman; General Motors plans to close all operations in Oshawa, Ontario, says a report.
Despite the UK's one-toe-in-the-water approach to the European Union, as evidenced by keeping the British Pound instead of the Euro as prime currency, the current state of the country is still tied to its membership. Trade deals will have to be renegotiated. Tarrifs may be in play. The two year process of political and economic disentangling is unprecedented, and that creates uncertainty.
With the bankers' financial resources behind him, Whitney placed a bid to purchase a large block of shares in U.S. Steel at a price well above the current market. As traders watched, Whitney then placed similar bids on other "blue chip" stocks. This tactic was similar to one that had ended the Panic of 1907. It succeeded in halting the slide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered, closing with it down only 6.38 points for the day. The rally continued on Friday, October 25, and the half day session on Saturday the 26th but, unlike 1907, the respite was only temporary.

Hi Gord. Thanks for this informative piece. Its best info I’ve found on the net. I plan to invest in a $250K – $300K property in Ontario without living in it as I am in UAE. Which town of Ontario do you suggest I should invest in to keep my rental income coming, along with chance of property appreciation. Toronto is surely very expensive now so we are think about these towns: Oshawa, Guelp, berries or Milton…what would you do if you had this much of savings and wanted to invest in Ontario Market for 2 years
Last week when we were closing on our house- we were selling-, we were told there was a delay earlier in the day. All house sales and money transactions go through the federal reserve. Luckily it came back up, we sold and “pocketed” our gains in the bank. Now what to do with it!!! I am not sure it is safe in the bank, talking $260,000. We want to move to middle, southern Tn. Living in an apartment till my daughter graduates. Any ideas?

Did you ever stop to think about how goods and services can’t teleport? We don’t have teleportation technology – or magic, for that matter. So when a president/congress decides to move the economy, it takes *time* for the economy to react. Policies take time to come in force, markets take time to guage impacts and respond accordingly, equilibrium is established only after a long series of interractions. It takes *years* not days or weeks. You don’t judge a president (or congress) by what happens immediately after they take office (read: the economic meltdown during Obama’s first term, or the economic uptick during Trump’s first few months). You look at what happens two years into their term of office, with acknowledgement of the context.

The panic began again on Black Monday (October 28), with the market closing down 12.8 percent. On Black Tuesday (October 29) more than 16 million shares were traded. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost another 12 percent and closed at 198—a drop of 183 points in less than two months. Prime securities tumbled like the issues of bogus gold mines. General Electric fell from 396 on September 3 to 210 on October 29. American Telephone and Telegraph dropped 100 points. DuPont fell from a summer high of 217 to 80, United States Steel from 261 to 166, Delaware and Hudson from 224 to 141, and Radio Corporation of America (RCA) common stock from 505 to 26. Political and financial leaders at first affected to treat the matter as a mere spasm in the market, vying with one another in reassuring statements. President Hoover and Treasury Secretary Andrew W. Mellon led the way with optimistic predictions that business was “fundamentally sound” and that a great revival of prosperity was “just around the corner.” Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly reached the 300 mark again in 1930, it sank rapidly in May 1930. Another 20 years would pass before the Dow average regained enough momentum to surpass the 200-point level.


Fourth, other US policies will continue to add stagflationary pressure, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates higher still. The administration is restricting inward/outward investment and technology transfers, which will disrupt supply chains. It is restricting the immigrants who are needed to maintain growth as the US population ages. It is discouraging investments in the green economy. And it has no infrastructure policy to address supply-side bottlenecks.
US data remains strong. Manufacturing conditions remained strong in the New York and Philadelphia regions and the Markit manufacturing PMI rose, the Conference Board’s leading indicator is continuing to rise, and jobless claims fell further. Housing-related data, like starts, permits and sales, doesn’t have a lot of momentum but it’s consistent with a flat/modest contribution to economic growth and at least it’s a long way from the pre-GFC housing boom that went bust.
Since Trump has already started a trade war with China and wouldn’t dare attack nuclear-armed North Korea, his last best target would be Iran. By provoking a military confrontation with that country, he would trigger a stagflationary geopolitical shock not unlike the oil-price spikes of 1973, 1979 and 1990. Needless to say, that would make the oncoming global recession even more severe.
As we mark the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed. But looking ahead, the more relevant question is what actually will trigger the next global recession and crisis, and when.
Thanks for voicing your opinion too Violet. This isn’t Nazi Germany and it’s important that we can all speak freely without feeling threatened. I think my portrayal of Obama and Clinton was generous. I’ve witnessed the downfall of the US in the last 30 years and it’s awful to see. I hope you’ll get a chance to read my other post on the US debt: http://www.gordcollins.com/investment-2/massive-deficit-debt-china/ Do you think Obama generated the results he did get with that $20 trillion debt? If you don’t bring back the good paying jobs and reduce the deficit, how will you pay off that horrible debt? The US needed a strong leader, and although the Tweeting @realDonaldTrump is creating more friction, you have to admire how he’s standing up against the media who have a stake in the status quo. I hope as well that he will level the playing field between multinational corporations and small businesses like yours. My loyalty is with SMBs like your company!
Markets can also be stabilized by large entities purchasing massive quantities of stocks, essentially setting an example for individual traders and curbing panic selling. However, these methods are not only unproven, they may not be effective. In one famous example, the Panic of 1907, a 50 percent drop in stocks in New York set off a financial panic that threatened to bring down the financial system. J. P. Morgan, the famous financier and investor, convinced New York bankers to step in and use their personal and institutional capital to shore up markets.
Hi Kesh. You’re welcome. I can’t advise you however if you check the Toronto condo market during February, you’re giving the market time to bottom out. Anything under $500k will in extreme demand because of the stress test rules. $900 a square foot is scary, especially for a 1 bedroom. However, immigration is rising fast, there’s not much inventory, and there is a lot of reason to consider the possibility of a housing boom rather than a housing crash. The government doesn’t want to sincerely increase supply, so they’re going to try to kill demand. That’s where they run the risk of killing an economy that’s still dependent on real estate. But Millennials need somewhere to live as do all these new immigrants. The question you should consider before buying is will Trudeau and Wynne get routed out of office before they create a recession? Are you investing or do you need to live in the unit?

While the note's warnings are ominous and contradict many other more rosy outlooks for the current bull market, the London-based fund was on point in calling February's market correction weeks before it happened. Filia told CNBC in late January that stock valuations were in "bitcoin territory," "totally disconnected from fundamentals," and that markets were on the "edge of chaos."


Benjamin Graham once observed that in the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. That's what it did today. It went up or went down based mostly on popular opinion, blown by the wind. In the long term, it's a weighing machine, which reflects the true value of businesses in their stock prices. That's why it's so important to think like an owner, and not just a trader.
The turbulence of the election, rising interest rates against overheated housing markets does give some plausibility to a US housing crash in 2018 or 2019. Proponents of an upcoming crash point to too many Americans living lavish lifestyles, still buying expensive foreign luxury cars on a $40,000 salary, while sitting on over-leveraged monster mortgages that could be subject to quickly rising mortgage rates.
Also, be sure you're focused on percentages, not points, when thinking about stock market movements. This is something the media doesn't sufficiently understand, often reporting market drops in points instead of percentages. As an example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by a whopping 1,175 points in a single day in February 2018, which sure sounds like a lot -- especially compared with 1987's "Black Monday," when the Dow fell 508 points. But in percentage points, it was a meaningful yet not catastrophic 4.6% decline -- while 1987's drop wiped out 22.6% of the market's value at the time. The Dow was near 26,000 at the time of this writing, and the S&P 500 was around 2,800. At those levels, if the Dow "plunges" by 260 points, remember that it would be just a 1% move. Even a 1,000-point drop would be just a 3.85% decline.
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