The Warren Buffett Indicator is less mysterious than it sounds. It might as well be called the common-sense indicator. It’s simply the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)—or the sum total of a country’s economic activity—and the value of stocks in the S&P 500. So, in simpler terms, the Warren Buffett Indicator in terms of Wall Street measures market capitalization versus U.S. GDP. (Source: “Why Warren Buffett Is Betting Against Warren Buffett,” Seeking Alpha, October 24, 2017.)
The macros continue to be a worry for the markets. The trade deficit is consistent at around $18 billion per month and CAD is likely to get closer to 3% of GDP by year end. Oil prices are close to $80/bbl while the INR has already cracked close to 73/$. All these factors may force the RBI to hike the repo rates by 25 basis points to 50 basis points which is likely to be a negative factor for the stock markets. That risk also got factored into the markets on Friday. In a nutshell, with all the macro uncertainties, most traders were trying to go into the week end as light as possible.

“I think as Americans lose their jobs, they are going to see the cost of living going up rather dramatically, and so this is going to make it particularly painful,” Schiff said. “This is a bubble not just in the stock market, but the entire economy,” he told Fox News Business. Schiff is predicting a recession, accompanied by rising consumer prices, that will be “far more painful” than the 2007-2009 Great Recession.


“I think as Americans lose their jobs, they are going to see the cost of living going up rather dramatically, and so this is going to make it particularly painful,” Schiff said. “This is a bubble not just in the stock market, but the entire economy,” he told Fox News Business. Schiff is predicting a recession, accompanied by rising consumer prices, that will be “far more painful” than the 2007-2009 Great Recession.


According to data from Equifax in August 2017, deep subprime auto loans -- i.e., loans with an origination VantageScore of 530 or less, on a scale of 300 to 850 -- have hit delinquency rates that hadn’t been seen since 2007. Interestingly enough, when examining the auto market as a whole, no red flags arise in terms of delinquency rates. But if you focus solely on subprime and deep subprime loans, they’ve been deteriorating of late. 
Did you ever stop to think about how goods and services can’t teleport? We don’t have teleportation technology – or magic, for that matter. So when a president/congress decides to move the economy, it takes *time* for the economy to react. Policies take time to come in force, markets take time to guage impacts and respond accordingly, equilibrium is established only after a long series of interractions. It takes *years* not days or weeks. You don’t judge a president (or congress) by what happens immediately after they take office (read: the economic meltdown during Obama’s first term, or the economic uptick during Trump’s first few months). You look at what happens two years into their term of office, with acknowledgement of the context.
Other scientists disagree with this notion, and note that market crashes are indeed “special.” Professor Didier Sornette, for example, a physicist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, argued that a market crash is not simply a scaled-up version of a normal down day but a true outlier to market behavior. In fact, he claims that ahead of critical points the market starts giving off some clues. His work focuses on interpreting these clues and identify when a bubble may be forming and, crucially, when it ends.

However, if China’s economy falters it might. Geopolitical turmoil concerning North Korea, Iran, Syria or Russia could also become a catalyst if things escalate enough. It’s most likely that the next market crash, whenever it occurs, will be the result of a perfect storm caused by several factors. But, since it’s not something anyone can predict, it’s best to concentrate on being prepared for a crash whenever it may occur.


Maybe Coca-Cola announced record earnings. Maybe it's the middle of the month, and your 401(k) contribution has just come out of your paycheck, so you automatically bought a fund or individual stocks. Maybe you've just retired, and you'd like to take 40 years of profits to pay off your mortgage, so you're selling some stocks. Maybe a stock hasn't gone anywhere for you, and you don't mind taking a little loss for the tax break. Maybe you found a bargain and you just can't wait to snap up a few shares. Maybe it's a stock bubble or stock valuations are running high.
However, the psychological effects of the crash reverberated across the nation as businesses became aware of the difficulties in securing capital market investments for new projects and expansions. Business uncertainty naturally affects job security for employees, and as the American worker (the consumer) faced uncertainty with regards to income, naturally the propensity to consume declined. The decline in stock prices caused bankruptcies and severe macroeconomic difficulties, including contraction of credit, business closures, firing of workers, bank failures, decline of the money supply, and other economically depressing events.

August has been a study in contrasts, another month in which calm persisted in the U.S. despite jarring news flow. Daily volume dropped to an average of 6.1 billion shares, the second lowest since last October. Negative headlines flashed, from an escalation in trade tensions to emerging market turmoil to continued political chaos in Washington. Yet none was enough to rock the market out of its slumber.


Real estate developers and other investors offer their projects on real estate crowdfunding sites. The platforms have analysts that verify the properties and the developer’s history with only about 5% of submitted deals making it in front of investors. Investors can then pick which deals in which they want to invest, usually as little as $1,000 per investment.
Jet Airways (India) shares slumped more than 7% on Friday to nearly 4-year low after India's biggest full-service airline said that income tax officials were conducting a survey at its premises. The stock of Jet Airways slipped as much as 7.1% to Rs 225.85, its lowest since October 2014. Up until Wednesday's closing price, Jet Airways shares have declined by 70% in the current year so far. "Income Tax officials are conducting a survey at the premises of the company since 19 September 2018. The company is fully cooperating with the authorities and are responding to the queries raised by the Income Tax Authorities," Jet Airways said in an exchange filing.
As a Young Family (married with one child) home buyer, we made a loss when we sold out to move to the Toronto area and currently rent. Our landlord is selling up a the Townhouses in our area have grown from $280,000 10 years ago to one just selling a few days ago for $630,000. Last month they were selling for $450,000. We now have no option but to continue renting and are now looking at the city for a Rental Condo (which is now cheaper than the 3 hour daily �suburb commute) . We didn’t even have the money to buy when it was worth $280,000. Our house hold income is around $80,000 a year. The reality is, the average Canadian has a debt load at a level even higher than the unsustainable US pre 2008 crash.
hcks, we’ve been looking all over Houston for you. We have reserved a seat for you on Niburu when it gets close enough to board via the secret mind control surf boards we’ve stashed away for those of us in the ” know.” We’re making sure you’ll be sitting next to Dave Hodges and your scientist friend, you know, the one whose name can never be mentioned lest the Earth be ravaged by brain eating dreadlock zombies, you know, THAT scientist friend. By the way, we have been able to confirm that Ted Turner is indeed and has been a cannibal for years now, so he’s looking forward to some fine dinning once the shtf next April. Stay on your normal frequency as we may need to transmit additional instructions to you without delay.
In the second half of 1982 the number of cartridges grew from 100 in June to more than 400 in December. Experts predicted a glut in 1983, with 10% of games producing 75% of sales.[23] BYTE stated in December that "in 1982 few games broke new ground in either design or format ... If the public really likes an idea, it is milked for all it's worth, and numerous clones of a different color soon crowd the shelves. That is, until the public stops buying or something better comes along. Companies who believe that microcomputer games are the hula hoop of the 1980s only want to play Quick Profit."[28] Bill Kunkel said in January 1983 that companies had "licensed everything that moves, walks, crawls, or tunnels beneath the earth. You have to wonder how tenuous the connection will be between the game and the movie Marathon Man. What are you going to do, present a video game root canal?"[29]
The new companies reduced Atari's share of the cartridge-game market from 75% in 1981 to less than 40% in 1982.[26] David Crane, one of the founders of Activision after leaving Atari, recalled that during the six months between two consecutive Consumer Electronic Shows, the number of third-party developers jumped from 3 to 30. Attempting to imitate Activision, the new companies attempted to use programmers unfamiliar with game development to produce, Crane said, "the worst games you can imagine".[27] Companies lured away each other's programmers or used reverse engineering to learn how to make games for proprietary systems. Atari even hired several programmers from Mattel's Intellivision development studio, prompting a lawsuit by Mattel against Atari that included charges of industrial espionage.
While the note's warnings are ominous and contradict many other more rosy outlooks for the current bull market, the London-based fund was on point in calling February's market correction weeks before it happened. Filia told CNBC in late January that stock valuations were in "bitcoin territory," "totally disconnected from fundamentals," and that markets were on the "edge of chaos."
Market crashes are far more common in our imagination than in reality. This is because they are vivid and scary events. Given our evolution, we are wired to worry about these sorts of vivid events. While, this may have been useful in helping us avoid getting eaten by tigers, it's less useful for rational, disciplined stock market investing. By thinking this topic through now, hopefully you're a little better prepared when the next crash hits.
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