Indian stock markets witnessed a steep and sudden sell-off in the afternoon deals on Friday. Rajat Sharma of Sana Securities told FE Online that stock markets are "extremely overvalued" and Sensex can fall even 2,000 points from here while NSE Nifty can correct by about 1,000 points. "Nothing has changed fundamentally, I mean we have the same macro-economic situation, etc, but when a sell-off happens, nobody can predict, Rajat Sharma said further.
Even better than not selling stocks during a recession is to actually go on the offense. In bull markets, investors can occasionally find reasonably priced, wonderful businesses. But they can rarely find wonderful businesses trading at a significant discount to their fair value. Stock market crashes are the rare times when high-quality businesses can be found in the clearance aisle. Go shopping!
Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests that there is evidence the frequency of stock market crashes follows an inverse cubic power law. This and other studies such as Prof. Didier Sornette's work suggest that stock market crashes are a sign of self-organized criticality in financial markets. In 1963, Mandelbrot proposed that instead of following a strict random walk, stock price variations executed a Lévy flight. A Lévy flight is a random walk that is occasionally disrupted by large movements. In 1995, Rosario Mantegna and Gene Stanley analyzed a million records of the S&P 500 market index, calculating the returns over a five-year period. Researchers continue to study this theory, particularly using computer simulation of crowd behaviour, and the applicability of models to reproduce crash-like phenomena.
The next day, "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, about 16 million shares traded as the panic selling reached its peak. Some stocks actually had no buyers at any price that day ("air pockets"). The Dow lost an additional 30 points, or 12 percent. The volume of stocks traded on October 29, 1929, was a record that was not broken for nearly 40 years.
Last week when we were closing on our house- we were selling-, we were told there was a delay earlier in the day. All house sales and money transactions go through the federal reserve. Luckily it came back up, we sold and “pocketed” our gains in the bank. Now what to do with it!!! I am not sure it is safe in the bank, talking $260,000. We want to move to middle, southern Tn. Living in an apartment till my daughter graduates. Any ideas?
But Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, lists a number of global disputes coming to a head this fall, including tariffs on imports from China, the potential for auto tariffs on other countries, Iran oil sanctions kicking in, Congress facing another budget deadline and the election in November. "The risk calendar gets quite big this fall," he said. "September is part of it, but it's really the whole fall period."
The second biggest crash in global markets occurred in 2008. It was preceded by a housing market crash which led two Wall Street banks, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers declaring bankruptcy. By 2008 the world economy was so interconnected that the market crash led to a global financial crisis. Although it wasn’t the largest crash in percentage terms, it was the largest drop in terms of value in the history of the New York Stock Exchange.
The bigger they come, the harder they fall. Currently, we are in the terminal phase of an “everything bubble” which has had ten years to grow. It is the biggest financial bubble that our country has ever seen, and experts are warning that when it finally bursts we will experience an economic downturn that is even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Of course many of us in the alternative media have been warning about what is coming for quite some time, but now even many in the mainstream media have jumped on the bandwagon. The Economist is one of the most prominent globalist mouthpieces in the entire world, and so I was stunned when I came across one of their articles earlier today that was entitled “Another economic downturn is just a matter of time”. When the alternative media and globalist media outlets are both preaching economic doom, that is a very clear sign that big trouble is imminent.
We are humbled by the overwhelming response we received for the "Invest Like a Pro" Virtual Stock Contest. We hope the last three months were as exciting for you as they were for us. Our goal was to take you on an eventful journey where you could mimic a real trading experience without any risk but at the same time win real cash prizes. In the process we hope you were able to brush up on your stock picking skills.
It is believed that Khashoggi was dismembered after being abducted by the Saudis, and all of the major western powers have expressed major concern about his fate. But the Saudis insist that they didn’t have anything to do with his disappearance, and they are threatening “greater action” if any sanctions are imposed upon them. The following comes from USA Today…
Despite the dangers of speculation, it was widely believed that the stock market would continue to rise forever. On March 25, 1929, after the Federal Reserve warned of excessive speculation, a mini crash occurred as investors started to sell stocks at a rapid pace, exposing the market's shaky foundation. Two days later, banker Charles E. Mitchell announced that his company, the National City Bank, would provide $25 million in credit to stop the market's slide. Mitchell's move brought a temporary halt to the financial crisis, and call money declined from 20 to 8 percent. However, the American economy showed ominous signs of trouble: steel production declined, construction was sluggish, automobile sales went down, and consumers were building up high debts because of easy credit. Despite all these economic trouble signs and the market breaks in March and May 1929, stocks resumed their advance in June and the gains continued almost unabated until early September 1929 (the Dow Jones average gained more than 20% between June and September). The market had been on a nine-year run that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average increase in value tenfold, peaking at 381.17 on September 3, 1929. Shortly before the crash, economist Irving Fisher famously proclaimed, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." The optimism and financial gains of the great bull market were shaken after a well publicized early September prediction from financial expert Roger Babson that "a crash was coming". The initial September decline was thus called the "Babson Break" in the press. This was the start of the Great Crash, although until the severe phase of the crash in October, many investors regarded the September "Babson Break" as a "healthy correction" and buying opportunity.
There are numerous housing crash factors discussed below from geopolitical events to trade related to rising interest rates, the end of stimulus spending, and excessively high home prices. A trade war with China could be crash factor #1. Will debt, deficits, and tariff barriers be the issues that start bursting housing bubbles? Will it be political opposition by the democrats and meddling within the US?
In 2013, the stock market finally recovered. In the first six months, it gained more points than in any year on record. Stock prices rose faster than earnings, creating an asset bubble. The Dow set over 250 closing records until February 2018. Fears of inflation and higher interest rates almost sent the Dow into a correction. Like many other past stock market crashes, it did not lead to a recession.
Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc.2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.
IMF has cut global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, saying that the US-China trade war was taking a toll and emerging markets were struggling with tighter liquidity and capital outflows. IMF in an update to its World Economic Outlook predicted a 3.7 per cent global growth in 2018 and 2019, down from its July forecast of 3.9 per cent growth for both years.
However, Lee stressed that institutional cryptocurrency investors are “not necessarily getting hurt” by the recent market downturn, even as Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply to as low as $4,237 today. In this regard, the investor emphasized the crucial role of institutional participation in the industry, claiming that specifically this part of the market will pull the “next wave of the adoption.”
When Tobin’s Q is in its uppermost quartile, as it is today, it suggests this reward/risk equation is not at all favorable for investors. In other words, these “fat tails” get even fatter during these periods thus investors should look to hedge their portfolios against large declines. And this is precisely the “asset inflation” Taleb was referring to in the interview mentioned at the top of this post.
But it's during those times when you need to guard against overriding the rational process you went through to build your portfolio. If you want to re-evaluate the portfolio mix you arrived at earlier just to confirm that it's right for you and even possibly make a small tweak or two, fine. But you don't want to let fear and emotions dictate your investing strategy and lead you to make impulsive decisions you may rue later.
The Dow opened the year at 12,459.54. It rose despite growing concerns about the subprime mortgage crisis. On November 17, 2006, the Commerce Department warned that October's new home permits were 28 percent lower than the year before. But economists didn't think the housing slowdown would affect the rest of the economy. In fact, they were relieved that the overheated real estate market appeared to be returning to normal.
A stock market anomaly, the major market indexes dropped by over 9% (including a roughly 7% decline in a roughly 15-minute span at approximately 2:45 p.m., on May 6, 2010) before a partial rebound. Temporarily, $1 trillion in market value disappeared. While stock markets do crash, immediate rebounds are unprecedented. The stocks of eight major companies in the S&P 500 fell to one cent per share for a short time, including Accenture, CenterPoint Energy and Exelon; while other stocks, including Sotheby's, Apple Inc. and Hewlett-Packard, increased in value to over $100,000 in price. Procter & Gamble in particular dropped nearly 37% before rebounding, within minutes, back to near its original levels. The drop in P&G was broadcast live on CNBC at the time, with commentator Jim Cramer commenting:
So many people blindly put money into their 401k and assume it will grow into something they can retire on. This is an extremely bad plan for one main reason, lack of diversification. Sure, they might have money in three or four different funds, but it’s still fully invested in stocks and is entirely dependent on market growth. In the event of a crash, they’re absolutely screwed.
Jump up ^ Coleco Presents The Adam Computer System. YouTube. May 3, 2016 [1983-09-28]. Event occurs at 1:06:55. Archived from the original on January 3, 2017. IBM is just not another strong company making a positive statement about the home-computer field's future. IBM is a company that knows how to make money. IBM is a company that knows how to make money in hardware, and makes more money in software. What IBM can bring to the home-computer field is something that the field collectively needs, particularly now: A respect for profitability. A capability to earn money. That is precisely what the field needs ... I look back a year or two in the videogame field, or the home-computer field, how much better everyone was, when most people were making money, rather than very few were making money.
The Canadian government hasn’t come up with a plan to stop investment money fleeing to “low tax” United States. The US economy and the US stock market and USD have all soared with Trump’s strategy. With the border blocked, there will be no reason to invest in Canada. Trudeau has refused to look at tax reductions. That has severe implications for the financial markets here.
If the market went down, is it because one company changed its business model or its forecasts? Because a mutual fund changed its strategy? Because a glitch triggered a wave of selling? Because yesterday it went up a lot and people decided to take their profits and invest elsewhere? Because one large investor decided to cash out on high valuations? Because another round of stock options for Facebook employees matured, and they sold? On the whole, we can't say why the market went down today is due to a single reason.
“My view is that the markets are extremely overvalued, and can fall even 2,000 points from here. (Sensex). The Nifty can correct by about 1,000 points. Nothing has changed fundamentally, I mean we have the same macro-economic situation, etc, but when a sell-off happens, nobody can predict. Financials, especially NBFCs are overvalued,” Rajat Sharma, founder, Sana Securities told FE Online.
When asked if today’s stock market carnage could be a contagion effect of IL&FS default, Deven Choksey, Managing Director of KRChoksey Shares & Securities Private Ltd told CNBC TV18,”It is an asset-liability mismatch. The fear you have a money recovery taking place; the government of India is required to pay off the money pertaining to the projects, and particularly i think the road projects, where I think a question of Rs 10,000 crore of collection is required to be taken care of. According to me it’s a temporary mismatch, and I don’t think they are undercover on debt. We have sufficient amount of cover as far as the assets are concerned; may be they have defaulted on their payments, and as a result the ratings agencies have downgraded them, and that has led to this kind of a cascading effect. But to me, as I understand, this money should come back to IL&FS and that should ultimately help them in resolving the asset liability mismatch situation or a liquidity situation in which they are right now.”
As longtime China watchers know, the country’s still-immature markets are in many ways more bubble-prone than their Western counterparts, thanks to heavy involvement from retail investors who often take cues from government policy, rather than quaint notions like earnings. Tanking Chinese stocks—the Shanghai Composite is now down nearly 25% from its January peak—could therefore be taken...
I have been an agent and real estate investor since 2001. I have seen the good times in the early 2000’s, worked through the housing crash, and the good times again. A lot of people think we are due for anther housing market crash because housing prices have increased in many areas of the country. Besides prices, there are many things that drive the housing market. In fact, prices cannot be used as an indicator of what the market will do because they are just a result of many other factors. Supply and demand are what push prices up or down. Supply is affected by foreclosures, homeowners’ willingness to move, new construction, and many other factors. Demand is driven by the economy, lending guidelines, potential homeowners confidence, wages, and much more. I believe the supply and demand affecting today’s’ housing market is much different than what drove the last housing boom. While prices could level out or decrease in some areas, I do not think we are in for a nationwide crash.
Flooding has hit U.S. coastal towns three to nine times more often than they did 50 years ago. In Miami, Florida, the ocean floods the streets during high tide. Harvard researchers found that home prices in lower-lying areas of Miami-Dade County and Miami Beach are rising more slowly than the rest of Florida. A study using Zillow found that properties at risk of rising sea levels sell at a 7 percent discount to comparable properties. By 2030, Miami Beach homes could pay $17 million in higher property taxes due to flooding by 2030.
That's a short term shock which makes a lot of people catch their breath. When a country as big as China has a short term shock (even in stocks), a lot of people in other countries get nervous. It's not just stocks, either; the price of oil has dropped dramatically in recent months—good for a lot of people who consume oil (airlines, transportation, individuals), but bad for people who produce oil (oil-rich countries, petrochemical refineries).
So, I should go ahead and take that last $15 I have in the bank out?? (better yet ill use it to fill up a gas can) Looks like this isn’t going to end well. The problem is the talking bimbos on the idiot box keep telling the lotus eaters of this world that everything is fine. (And they believe them!!) Have you tried to wake some of these people up to the fact that this will not end well?? My friends all thought I was crazy when I decided to move to the country to an off grid cabin in the woods two years ago, still not 100% ready but at least I don’t have to walk among them. God bless and prep on!
Take your money out of the bank ASAP. If you still keep your money in the bank, go there and remove as much as you can while leaving in enough to pay your bills. Although it wasn’t a market collapse in Greece recently, the banks did close and limit ATM withdrawals. People went for quite some time without being able to access their money, but were able to have a sense of normalcy by transferring money online to pay bills or using their debit cards to make purchases. Get your cash out. You don’t want to be at the mercy of the banks.
To sum it up, while the Buffett Indicator is certainly a great snapshot of stock valuations, it's not a stand-alone metric that you should use to determine when to buy or sell. When asked about the Buffett Indicator and another favorite metric at Berkshire's 2017 annual meeting, Buffett said that, "It's just not quite as simple as having one or two formulas and then saying the market is undervalued or overvalued."
Good harvests had built up a mass of 250 million bushels of wheat to be "carried over" when 1929 opened. By May there was also a winter-wheat crop of 560 million bushels ready for harvest in the Mississippi Valley. This oversupply caused a drop in wheat prices so heavy that the net incomes of the farming population from wheat were threatened with extinction. Stock markets are always sensitive to the future state of commodity markets, and the slump in Wall Street predicted for May by Sir George Paish arrived on time. In June 1929, the position was saved by a severe drought in the Dakotas and the Canadian West, plus unfavorable seed times in Argentina and eastern Australia. The oversupply would now be wanted to fill the big gaps in the 1929 world wheat production. From 97¢ per bushel in May, the price of wheat rose to $1.49 in July. When it was seen that at this figure American farmers would get rather more for their smaller crop than for that of 1928, stocks went up again.
Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.
Benjamin Graham once observed that in the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. That's what it did today. It went up or went down based mostly on popular opinion, blown by the wind. In the long term, it's a weighing machine, which reflects the true value of businesses in their stock prices. That's why it's so important to think like an owner, and not just a trader.
Thanks for writing the article. It makes some sense. but how about if the amounts are very different? I am currently considering selling my home which will now sell for $1.7 mil. when I purchased 6 years ago it was just under $600k. a 20% drop would be a gain of $340k which would be nice. But the main reason I would consider selling is to re purpose the tax free gains and invest in a range of different investments. I never intended for my house to be an investment tool, but as it has given me such large gains it seems foolish not to take them. In the perhaps 5% to 10% chance the housing market does continue to soar upwards then I guess I’ll never own again! but I will still have considerable assets that will secure me for life.
One of the more predominant effects of the 1983 crash was on Atari. In 1982, it had published large volumes of Atari 2600 games that they had expected to sell well, including a port of Pac-Man and game adaption of the film E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial. However, due to the quality of these games and other market factors, much of Atari's production did not get sold. In September 1983, Atari discreetly buried much of this excess stock, as well as unsold stock of earlier games, in a landfill near Alamogordo, New Mexico, though Atari did not comment about their activity at the time. Misinformation related to sales of Pac-Man and E.T. led to an urban legend of the Atari video game burial that millions of unsold cartridges were buried there. Gaming historians received permission to dig up the landfill as part of a documentary in 2014, during which former Atari executives clarified that only about 700,000 cartridges had been buried in 1982, backed by estimates made during the excavation, and disproving the scale of the urban legend. Despite this, Atari's burial remains an iconic representation of the 1983 video game crash.
Since traditional statistical methods are perhaps less appropriate for extreme markets, other paths of examination may be more fruitful. For example the Santa Fe Institute is examining links between different disciplines. Potentially a market crash may have more in common with a growing pile of sand, than how the same market performs outside of a crash environment. When a grain of sand is added to an existing pile so the pile grows ever higher. Most of the time, one more grain will cause the pile to grow in height by a just fraction. However, at other times the addition of a single grain will lead to a collapse and in turn that collapse may be small, large or potentially even massive. Some researchers believe that better understanding these sorts of events hold the key for a better understanding of extreme market events, because today many traditional models simply fail to hold up.
Ultimately, if there is a going to be a full-blown collapse of the stock market right now, we would need some sort of “kick off event” in order to make that happen. It would have to be something on the scale of another 9/11, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, an unprecedented natural disaster, the start of a major war or something else along those lines.
Professor: I certainly believe so, but this will happen with extreme volatility. I am more worried about the retail investor the so called silent majority. With this wild fluctuation, his survival rate in the market is next to zero. He will not easily believe that the market will bounce back in the near term. You cannot blame him. His ability to withstand paper loss (temporary) is very small. So he will easily buckle and sell out. All I can say is that we are slowing moving into a panic mode. We still have to wait a while to see the green shoots. Are we ready to wait?
Secondly, he says, higher interest rates raise borrowing costs for consumers and companies, so auto loans and mortgages become more expensive and companies have a harder time tapping the debt market. "Clearly, higher rates are not good for housing or auto sales," says Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research. And if sales of these big-ticket items slow, so does the broader economy.
John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Netflix. The Motley Fool has the following options: long January 2020 $150 calls on Apple and short January 2020 $155 calls on Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
One of the big drivers of the stock market since 2008 has been monetary policy: in specific, the Quantitative Easing program of the Federal Reserve and the low interest rates. While the former put a lot of new money into bonds (keeping those interest rates low), the latter kept the world's least risky investment paying out very little. As a result, a lot of money chased better returns in the stock market.
I am very frightened. This past June, I allowed a financial advisor to convince me that my portfolio made up of primarily stocks was risky for a retiree. I have been retired since 2005 and had held the same stocks since then. These stocks included 2 Canadian banks, BCE, TransAlta, and Emera. I was receiving dividends o $4,800 per year and all the stocks consistently raised their dividends. The financial advisor put me in2 costly mutual funds which proceeded to lose me $ 1800 within days and also swallowed up up my incoming dividends from the former portfolio. By the time I was down $6,000 I panicked and pulled out of the mutual funds. And! This was in 2017. What I have left and what I thought would carry me through my retirement is now in a money market making very little and I am terrified daily as to reinvesting it.
This is a tricky and unpredictable line of thinking; you can easily get yourself tied up in knots trying to predict what other investors will think about the vague policy pronouncements some member of the Fed has made in a speech here or there. The important takeaway is simple, though: money will flow quickly to where people think they can get the biggest, least risky return. If that's not Treasury bills (and it hasn't been for a long time), it'll go somewhere else. As happened in early September 2016, the suggestion of an interest rate hike by December 2016 led to a selloff on Wall Street.
TREB’s own survey found that foreign buyers actually had little effect on the market, and it was the chilling effect of the fair housing act that destroyed what was a healthy Toronto real estate market. Although Doug Ford originally promised to free up land, lower prices, and cut red tape, he quickly recanted. He has announced a new buck a beer program.
If you’ve gone with a “set it and forget it” strategy — like investing in a target-date retirement fund, as many 401(k) plans allow you to do, or using a robo-advisor — diversification already is built in. In this case, it’s best to sit tight and trust that your portfolio is ready to ride out the storm. You’ll still experience some painful short-term jolts, but this will help you avoid losses from which your portfolio can’t recover.
By September 1983 the Phoenix stated that 2600 cartridges "is no longer a growth industry". Activision, Atari, and Mattel all had experienced programmers, but many of the new companies rushing to join the market did not have the expertise or talent to create quality games. Titles such as Chase the Chuck Wagon (about dogs eating food, funded by the dog food company Purina), Skeet Shoot, and Lost Luggage were examples of games made in the hopes of taking advantage of the video-game boom.
Sensex and Nifty observed a major crash in the afternoon trade today following a sharp fall in housing finance stocks. However, benchmark indices soon rebounded as Sensex recovered nearly 900 points after falling over 1,100 points and Nifty reclaimed 11,100-level within a matter of minutes in afternoon session. The 30-share index fell 1127.58 points, or 3.03 percent, to hit an intra-day low of 35,993.64. The index was trading 171.39 points, or 0.46 percent, lower at 36,949.83 at the time of reporting.
In 2014, Henry Blodget wrote that stocks were 40% overvalued and that he couldn’t find any data to suggest that the market would continue rising. Although he didn’t state that a crash was coming, he did tell us that stocks were likely to give “lousy returns” over the next ten years. He also concluded his article with some technical analysis from John Hussman, which cautioned that the S&P 500 could collapse after it reached 1,900.