Tom Lee had reduced his year-end Bitcoin price prediction from $25,000 to $15,000 last week, Nov. 16, following a massive decline on the markets that started on Nov. 14, with Bitcoin hitting yearly lows. Previously, the crypto bull had, several times, predicted that Bitcoin’s price would rise above $20,000 for the year’s end. Lee announced his first prediction in January this year, advising “aggressive buying,” while considering the $9,000 price point as “the biggest buying opportunity in 2018.”
Housing has typically been a hedge against inflation. This time it will be inflation that kills the housing market. President Bush recently spent 800 Billion in 2 days. Federal spending is up over 30%. The Medicare bill will cost the US between 2 and 3 TRILLION dollars in the next 20 years. Only through devaluing the dollar (which has already begun) and massive tax increases, can the government hope to pay its bills. This means inflation, and lots of it. The people that are investing in real estate have a chronic myopia when it comes to economic history.
I am very frightened. This past June, I allowed a financial advisor to convince me that my portfolio made up of primarily stocks was risky for a retiree. I have been retired since 2005 and had held the same stocks since then. These stocks included 2 Canadian banks, BCE, TransAlta, and Emera. I was receiving dividends o $4,800 per year and all the stocks consistently raised their dividends. The financial advisor put me in2 costly mutual funds which proceeded to lose me $ 1800 within days and also swallowed up up my incoming dividends from the former portfolio. By the time I was down $6,000 I panicked and pulled out of the mutual funds. And! This was in 2017. What I have left and what I thought would carry me through my retirement is now in a money market making very little and I am terrified daily as to reinvesting it.
Investors bore the emotional scars from the crash for the next four years. On June 1, 2012, they panicked over a poor May jobs report and the eurozone debt crisis. The Dow dropped 275 points. The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield dropped to 1.443 during intraday trading. This was the lowest rate in more than 200 years. It signaled that the confidence that evaporated during 2008 had not quite returned to Wall Street.
On April 21, 2015, nearly five years after the incident, the U.S. Department of Justice laid "22 criminal counts, including fraud and market manipulation"  against Navinder Singh Sarao, a trader. Among the charges included was the use of spoofing algorithms; just prior to the Flash Crash, he placed thousands of E-mini S&P 500 stock index futures contracts which he planned on canceling later. These orders amounting to about "$200 million worth of bets that the market would fall" were "replaced or modified 19,000 times" before they were canceled. Spoofing, layering, and front running are now banned.
A second, highly visible result of the crash was the advancement of measures to control third-party development of software. Using secrecy to combat industrial espionage had failed to stop rival companies from reverse engineering the Mattel and Atari systems and hiring away their trained game programmers. While Mattel and Coleco implemented lockout measures to control third-party development (the ColecoVision BIOS checked for a copyright string on power-up), the Atari 2600 was completely unprotected and once information on its hardware became available, little prevented anyone from making games for the system. Nintendo thus instituted a strict licensing policy for the NES that included equipping the cartridge and console with lockout chips, which were region-specific, and had to match in order for a game to work. In addition to preventing the use of unlicensed games, it also was designed to combat software piracy, rarely a problem in the United States or Western Europe, but rampant in East Asia.
Note: The statements and information presented in this post is not intended as professional investment advice. It is solely an exploration of stock investing and the risks, perils, and behavior of stock markets and the economy. No one should rely on a single source of information or a single stock market and investing professional’s advice. The overall message of the post might be to diversify stock, real estate, and cash/gold holdings as a hedge against stock market crashes. Investors should look into hedging strategies but be aware that even hedging may provide limited protection from a crash.
The bottom line: As a sandpile grows, all sort of sand “avalanches” take place, but it is impossible to predict how big or how often they occur. Sometimes a few grains roll down the slope, while occasionally a large avalanche carves a big section of the sandpile. The size and frequency of those avalanches, mathematically speaking, bear a notable resemblance to the size and frequency of earthquakes, solar flares, river floods, forest fires, and stock market returns. Intriguingly, all of them have defied attempts at prediction. The question is why.
Since Trump has already started a trade war with China and wouldn’t dare attack nuclear-armed North Korea, his last best target would be Iran. By provoking a military confrontation with that country, he would trigger a stagflationary geopolitical shock not unlike the oil-price spikes of 1973, 1979 and 1990. Needless to say, that would make the oncoming global recession even more severe.
Ultimately, if there is a going to be a full-blown collapse of the stock market right now, we would need some sort of “kick off event” in order to make that happen. It would have to be something on the scale of another 9/11, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, an unprecedented natural disaster, the start of a major war or something else along those lines.
But what drives the Toronto housing market? Will it succumb to the same fate as Vancouver or worse? If you’re a buyer, you’re wondering which neighbourhoods and towns to focus on and whether this market will tank. If you’re a seller, you’re wondering if you’re going to miss the biggest payday of your life by not selling. If you’re close to retirement, you may want to carefully review your choice not to sell. 2017 is a grand time for you to sell and move onto a better life.
Fast forward thirty years. I’ve discovered an analog chart model that correlates the markets of the 1980s to the markets of the 2010s. Specifically, it correlates the S&P 500 from 1978 to 1987 to the S&P 500 from 2010 to 2018. The correlation rate? 94%. In other words, this model shows that the stock market of the past eight years is trading similar to the stock market of the 1980s.
Shares of tech companies, including the so-called FAANG stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet – have been market darlings for years. So when a sell-off gains steam, the stocks with the biggest gains are among the ones that investors sell first to lock in profits. Tech stocks have also been caught in the trade fight with China, as Trump's tough stance on Beijing is causing disruptions in their supply chain. Technology companies such as Facebook, Twitter and Alphabet are also facing intense regulatory scrutiny from the U.S. government.
Over time, we can correlate historical trends in the stock market to the global business cycle. When times are good, stocks as a whole tend to go up—bull markets. When times are bad, stocks as a whole tend to go down—bear markets. This doesn't predict the behavior of any individual company's stock over time, however, nor does it suggest what any stock will do on any given day.
The new companies reduced Atari's share of the cartridge-game market from 75% in 1981 to less than 40% in 1982. David Crane, one of the founders of Activision after leaving Atari, recalled that during the six months between two consecutive Consumer Electronic Shows, the number of third-party developers jumped from 3 to 30. Attempting to imitate Activision, the new companies attempted to use programmers unfamiliar with game development to produce, Crane said, "the worst games you can imagine". Companies lured away each other's programmers or used reverse engineering to learn how to make games for proprietary systems. Atari even hired several programmers from Mattel's Intellivision development studio, prompting a lawsuit by Mattel against Atari that included charges of industrial espionage.
Hi Claudette, Yes, Ford’s in but he didn’t say what he would do. Everyone was so desperate to get rid of Wynne they didn’t bother asking. Until he says something, we don’t know. He’s still small patatos compared to Trump and the cancelled NAFTA. I guess the question is, can he do anything about fast rising unemployment, interest rates, and no export markets?
Having said that, it does seem like Buffett himself is paying attention and agrees that the market is generally expensive. After all, the lack of attractive investment opportunities has resulted in Berkshire Hathaway accumulating nearly $110 billion of cash and equivalents on its balance sheet. Plus, Buffett has specifically cited valuation when discussing the absence of major acquisitions lately.
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I don’t even know how many records I own, but it’s in the thousands. I have records, tapes, CDs, and computer files going all the way back to the 1880s. I even have one recording from 1869. A scientist was studying sound waves and recorded a woman singing “Clare De Lune.” He recorded it as wavy lines on a soot-covered paper. Someone recently scanned it and converted it back into sound. It doesn’t sound very good, but it’s amazing that you could retrieve sound from marks on a sooty piece of paper.
So it's nothing to do with the fact that you treated us with contempt. Took our money and when asked for some concessions you sent Cameron packing?Then you have tried to extort 39 billion form the British tax payer, rip Northern Ireland from the Uk to placate the ROI. You have threatened and punished your way throughout these negotiationsand you wonder why the majority in this country new it was time to leave?The booze has addled your brain pal if you think we can't get away from you quick enough.
According to The Economic Times, as many as 41 stocks on the Nifty are in the red, with Eicher Motors, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra, TCS and GAIL falling 2-5 per cent. Of course, some companies bucked the trend, like Yes Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel and Vedanta, which advanced 0.53-2.11 per cent, but the mood in the market is decidedly cautious ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision on the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy. The pundits are all predicting a repo rate hike - the third this year - to be announced tomorrow.
Stock market crashes are usually caused by more than one factor. In fact, there are often two sets of reasons for a crash. One set of conditions creates the environment for the sell-off, and another set of factors triggers the beginning of the sell-off. Just because there is a market bubble, it doesn’t mean the market will crash. Usually something needs to occur to cause investors to begin selling and buyers to step away from the stock market.
For example, we have around 20,000 days of trading date over the last century to help us understand day to day movements in stocks. Yet, for crashes there are only around ten to twenty events over the past century depending on how a crash is defined, so there’s simply less data to look at. More worryingly, at times of market stress the market's behavior seems to change.
Hey DK. Since your brain is pegged to the 4th dimension. The $30 K I lost was back in 2002 when the dot com blew. I was making $90 K a year. Like spilled beer. Did not affect me. I was trading $20 K blocks at a time day trading. Its called the market maker, making the stock move. These are things you could only dream of. You cant even understand foreign exchange. The Yuan is not pegged to the dollar as you claim. You should stick to simple shit like beans and bullets. Economics is beyond you…
Jump up ^ Coleco Presents The Adam Computer System. May 3, 2016 [1983-09-28]. Event occurs at 44:30. Archived from the original on January 3, 2017. We're doing that with five new television commercials, which have just been completed, and which will be shown in conjunction with the Adam launch date. These commercials are each directed to our target audience, which is composed of our friendly neighborhood children, boys age 8 to 16 and their fathers. We believe those are the two groups that really fuel computer purchases, [boos] and we've directed right at 'em [more boos] - oh, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. Women, we've a commercial for you, trust me, but the key point is that our research, which is consumer research, directed that thought [inaudible] from the research, and we've directed our commercials at that target user group.
The NASDAQ has surged by a similar percentage. In other words, the winds that brought Trump to the White House fueled some $5.0 trillion into Wall Street’s market capitalization. How much more energy can this already remarkable—and improbable—rally have? Chances are the rally will taper off. It could do this gradually or with a bang—that is, a crash.
The Roaring Twenties, the decade that followed World War I that led to the crash, was a time of wealth and excess. Building on post-war optimism, rural Americans migrated to the cities in vast numbers throughout the decade with the hopes of finding a more prosperous life in the ever-growing expansion of America's industrial sector. While the American cities prospered, the overproduction of agricultural produce created widespread financial despair among American farmers throughout the decade. This would later be blamed as one of the key factors that led to the 1929 stock market crash.
Our tail-hedged portfolio consists of S&P 500 and out-of-the-money put options (specifically one delta which has a strike roughly 30% to 35% below spot) on the S&P 500. At the beginning of every calendar month, using actual option prices, the number of third-month options (with a maturity from 11 to 12 weeks, and also carrying over the payoff from unexpired options) is determined such that the tail-hedged portfolio breaks even for a down 20% move in the S&P 500 over a month. From practice, for scaling the payoff, we can safely assume the S&P 500 options’ implied volatility, or IVol, surface would look similar to the one observed after the lows of the October 2002 crash.
The transition to a US centered economy puts the country into a vulnerable period of uncertainty and GDP risk. Companies are hoarding products from China right now while the tariff is 10%, but on January 1st 2019, it will be 25% and that should stop imports completely, especially if the US dollar should weaken. Will companies build factories here or instead hold off and hope for a Trump loss in 2020?
The difficulty in getting a mortgage combined with extremely high student debt strapping down the millennial generation continues to nudge people toward renting. Americans don’t have the savings they used to have that allowed them to put a down payment on a home. Historically, the average savings rate of a person’s income was 8.3 percent, but today that number is 5.5 percent. Rising education and housing costs continue to burden the new generation of potential home buyers, driving down home ownership rates in the U.S.
It now looks like the secular bull market in stocks is turning into a secular bear market that could last for several years if not decades. The stock market acts as a sentiment indicator for what happens in the real economy. No indicator is perfect and stock market moves will be exaggerated in both directions. It is now likely that the world is starting an economic downturn of epic proportions.
A bull market -- just like the one the U.S. stock market has experienced since 2009 -- happens when investors are optimistic about the markets and the economy, and when demand outpaces supply, thus driving up share prices. As bull markets peter out -- they can last anywhere from two years to nine years -- all it takes is a significant market event to create a crisis of confidence among investors and draw more sellers into the market. This can create a stock market crash that leads to a bear market.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigation concluded that Sarao "was at least significantly responsible for the order imbalances" in the derivatives market which affected stock markets and exacerbated the flash crash. Sarao began his alleged market manipulation in 2009 with commercially available trading software whose code he modified "so he could rapidly place and cancel orders automatically." Traders Magazine journalist, John Bates, argued that blaming a 36-year-old small-time trader who worked from his parents' modest stucco house in suburban west London for sparking a trillion-dollar stock market crash is a little bit like blaming lightning for starting a fire" and that the investigation was lengthened because regulators used "bicycles to try and catch Ferraris." Furthermore, he concluded that by April 2015, traders can still manipulate and impact markets in spite of regulators and banks' new, improved monitoring of automated trade systems.
Thanks for writing the article. It makes some sense. but how about if the amounts are very different? I am currently considering selling my home which will now sell for $1.7 mil. when I purchased 6 years ago it was just under $600k. a 20% drop would be a gain of $340k which would be nice. But the main reason I would consider selling is to re purpose the tax free gains and invest in a range of different investments. I never intended for my house to be an investment tool, but as it has given me such large gains it seems foolish not to take them. In the perhaps 5% to 10% chance the housing market does continue to soar upwards then I guess I’ll never own again! but I will still have considerable assets that will secure me for life.
“I think as Americans lose their jobs, they are going to see the cost of living going up rather dramatically, and so this is going to make it particularly painful,” Schiff said. “This is a bubble not just in the stock market, but the entire economy,” he told Fox News Business. Schiff is predicting a recession, accompanied by rising consumer prices, that will be “far more painful” than the 2007-2009 Great Recession.
Share Market Live: Indian stock markets (Sensex and Nifty) closed lower on Friday facing a knee-jerk reaction in the intraday deals with Sensex closing 280 points lower and Nifty slipping below 11,150. During the day, a market-wide sell-off was seen in stocks with the benchmark Sensex plummetting 1,128 points and Nifty tripping below 10,900. Shares of Yes Bank, collapsed 34% intraday, settled down 29% while DHFL shares ended down 42% after nosediving 60% intraday.
It's good to examine your overall portfolio regularly, to make sure it's structured as you want it to be and that you're holding the stocks you want in the proportions you want. For example, if one holding has grown far faster than others, it may now make up a very big portion of your portfolio. Ask yourself if that's OK, and consider paring back that position at least some, especially if the stock seems significantly overvalued. You don't want too many eggs in one basket.
In Australia, ABS data confirmed that home prices fell again in the June quarter, skilled vacancies rose slightly and population growth remained strong in the March quarter. In terms of house prices, our assessment remains that the combination of tighter bank lending standards, rising supply, poor affordability and falling capital growth expectations point to more falls ahead, with Melbourne and Sydney likely to see top to bottom home price falls of around 15% out to 2020.
Real estate markets could collapse in coastal regions vulnerable to the effects of rising sea levels. The Union of Concerned Scientists predicts that 170 U.S. coastal cities and towns will be “chronically inundated” in 20 years. Another study found that 300,000 coastal properties will be flooded 26 times a year by 2045. The value of that real estate is $136 billion. By 2100, that number will rise to $1 trillion. At most risk are homes in Miami, New York's Long Island, and the San Francisco Bay area.
Prices began to decline in September and early October, but speculation continued, fueled in many cases by individuals who had borrowed money to buy shares—a practice that could be sustained only as long as stock prices continued rising. On October 18 the market went into a free fall, and the wild rush to buy stocks gave way to an equally wild rush to sell. The first day of real panic, October 24, is known as Black Thursday; on that day a record 12.9 million shares were traded as investors rushed to salvage their losses. Still, the Dow average closed down only six points after a number of major banks and investment companies bought up great blocks of stock in a successful effort to stem the panic that day. Their attempts, however, ultimately failed to shore up the market.