Ideally, at the start of your investment journey, you did risk profiling. If you skipped this step and are only now wondering how aligned your investments are to your temperament, that’s OK. Measuring your actual reactions during market agita will provide valuable data for the future. Just keep in mind that your answers may be biased based on the market’s most recent activity.
Benjamin Graham once observed that in the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. That's what it did today. It went up or went down based mostly on popular opinion, blown by the wind. In the long term, it's a weighing machine, which reflects the true value of businesses in their stock prices. That's why it's so important to think like an owner, and not just a trader.
The turbulence of the election, rising interest rates against overheated housing markets does give some plausibility to a US housing crash in 2018 or 2019. Proponents of an upcoming crash point to too many Americans living lavish lifestyles, still buying expensive foreign luxury cars on a $40,000 salary, while sitting on over-leveraged monster mortgages that could be subject to quickly rising mortgage rates.
You’re correct – some are predicting a blood bath – but they have been doing so for years. And I agree some segments of the Sydney property market will fall more than 20% – especially all those new apartments many of which were sold to unsuspecting investors. I’ve read the sources you’ve quoted and I’ve also read the comments from DR Phil Lowe – our RBA Governor – I don’t think he’s a fool – I’ll listen to him
It's not enough to have a pile of cash to spend when the market crashes if you end up having no idea what to buy. So build and maintain a stock watch list. Start by jotting down the names of companies you read or hear about that seem like promising investments. You could do so on paper, but maintaining a list online is better. You can set up an online watch list or "portfolio" full of stocks of interest at sites such as finance.yahoo.com, morningstar.com, marketwatch.com and others. You might pretend that you bought one or more shares of each at the stock price at which you first noticed the company. That way, the portfolio will always reflect how much the stock has risen or fallen since then.
As an investment banker who buys blocks of mortgages around America this is an important subject as to whether the value of my collateral will deteriorate. Talbott does a good job presenting his case that there is a relationship between household income and housing prices. His point is well taken that low interest rates have fueled this boom and that when rates rise, housing prices will have to come down. So, from the perspective of his thesis, I found this to be well written and well documented even if I agree there is a risk but do not believe that it will be significant.
The Indian rupee strengthened further against US dollar in the early afternoon deals on Friday following the sustained weakness in the crude oil prices. The domestic currency (rupee) extended morning gains on Friday and hit a fresh 2-week high at 71.7663, up 62 paise per unit US dollar, the Bloomberg data showed. The rupee is trading 120 paise higher from the all-time low of 72.97 apiece US dollar. Earlier on Tuesday this week, the rupee went very close to hitting 73/$ and made a record low at 72.9675 against US dollar.
Meanwhile, research and follow the companies on your list and get to know them well. Develop a strong understanding of just how they make their money, what their sustainable competitive advantages are, what their competition looks like, what their growth potential looks like, and how financially strong they are, such as in terms of cash and debt. When the market crashes, you'll be familiar with a bunch of companies and will have a sense of which are most compelling, growing most briskly and priced attractively. Monitoring your list regularly can help you notice when a company of interest, but not the overall market, falls in price significantly, presenting a possibly great buying opportunity.
When legions of investors try to sell, that causes further panic in the markets, and can lead to investment companies issuing "margin calls" -- calling in money lent to investors so they can buy stocks and funds -- which forces those investors to sell at current (usually low) prices to get their cash reserves to satisfactory levels to meet those demands. Over the decades, many investors have gone bust over stock market crashes --when supply trumps demand and there are more sellers than buyers.
Tech stocks, this year’s best-performing industry, will be in the spotlight, as executives from Twitter, Facebook and Google’s parent Alphabet begin testimony to Congress on Wednesday while Trump blasts about antitrust. Friday’s monthly payrolls data precedes a policy meeting by Federal Reserve later in the month, when the central bank is expected to raise interest rates for an eighth time since 2015.
The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing. As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate and US housing crash post, orecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:
In a 2011 article that appeared on the Wall Street Journal on the eve of the anniversary of the 2010 "flash crash", it was reported that high-frequency traders were then less active in the stock market. Another article in the journal said trades by high-frequency traders had decreased to 53% of stock-market trading volume, from 61% in 2009. Former Delaware senator Edward E. Kaufman and Michigan senator Carl Levin published a 2011 op-ed in The New York Times a year after the Flash Crash, sharply critical of what they perceived to be the SEC's apparent lack of action to prevent a recurrence.
When you think of oil production, the Middle East or OPEC is probably what comes to mind. But substantial shale finds in the United States in recent decades have pushed the nation the No. 3 spot in terms of daily production as of 2016, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. At 8.88 million barrels of oil production per day, the U.S. is responsible for more than 10% of global production.
For a few years now, the reason for fast rising home prices have been blamed on tight inventory. After seeing what has happened in Toronto, I’m starting to question these claims of tight inventory in almost all major housing markets (US and globally). In Toronto, within two weeks, they went from having very low inventory to having a 50% increase. Where did all of their extra inventory come from? Could the same happen to other major cities as well? It’s possible that there are low inventory in so many places due to aggressive investor speculation, which is then causing locals to panic buy. Very similar to the irrational exuberance happening before the housing crash 10 years ago. Something can trigger these property investors to sell all at the same time, and cause buyers to pull back, similar to what’s happening in Toronto. Another housing crash is possible, and it doesn’t have to be caused by bad loans like last time.
During the 1920s, the U.S. stock market underwent rapid expansion, reaching its peak in August 1929, after a period of wild speculation. By then, production had already declined and unemployment had risen, leaving stocks in great excess of their real value. Among the other causes of the eventual market collapse were low wages, the proliferation of debt, a struggling agricultural sector and an excess of large bank loans that could not be liquidated.
Bond strategists have been warning that the second half of September could bring a slight jump in yields because pension funds have been loading up on Treasurys and other bonds before the Sept. 15 deadline for a change in tax laws for corporate sponsors of funds. They believe that buying has depressed yields, which move opposite prices, and the end of those purchases could send yields higher.
Selling your home in 2018? Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo? Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.
In a less extreme market—for example, one where the Warren Buffett Indicator is around 100 or less—the risks are easier to identify, count, and classify. But in a situation where this indicator is approaching 140%, it’s clear that we’re long past the realm of logic. The markets are ignoring all risks while the Dow keeps climbing. Yet, there is one major risk at the macro level that could slam open the doors for a crash.
"I think we're going to work through this continued intersection of domestic and international political risk, with the fact the economy is very good and the earnings projection is very good, and the valuations are creeping up, but they're by no means excessive, with interest rates at this level," said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG. "But our view has been all along that basically you've got to fix the relationship with China in order to really make material further upside progress."
U.S. stock futures rise sharply, with Wall Street getting a lift from a record Black Friday spending weekend and as oil prices rebound; Cyber Monday is expected to bring in $7.8 billion in sales, according to Adobe Analytics; Mitsubishi Motors dismisses Carlos Ghosn as chairman; General Motors plans to close all operations in Oshawa, Ontario, says a report.
The bottom line: As a sandpile grows, all sort of sand “avalanches” take place, but it is impossible to predict how big or how often they occur. Sometimes a few grains roll down the slope, while occasionally a large avalanche carves a big section of the sandpile. The size and frequency of those avalanches, mathematically speaking, bear a notable resemblance to the size and frequency of earthquakes, solar flares, river floods, forest fires, and stock market returns. Intriguingly, all of them have defied attempts at prediction. The question is why.
Having been suspended for three successive trading days (October 9, 10, and 13), the Icelandic stock market reopened on 14 October, with the main index, the OMX Iceland 15, closing at 678.4, which was about 77% lower than the 3,004.6 at the close on October 8. This reflected that the value of the three big banks, which had formed 73.2% of the value of the OMX Iceland 15, had been set to zero.
Dennis Cisterna III was kind enough to provide this article that discusses the key factors that drive the housing market. Dennis is Chief Revenue Officer of Investability Real Estate, Inc. and an expert on housing trends and economic indicators. I chose Dennis to write this piece because I was so impressed with his podcast interview on my show. Dennis talks about the actual numbers when it comes to new house builds, lending guidelines, and if we are in fact due for another housing crash anytime soon. I also did a lot of research on my own about lending guidelines, affordability, building starts, and other issues affecting the housing market.
In the recent statement, the head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors pointed out two major types of crypto players — those who are “using it and have wallets in crypto,” and those who belong to a speculative side of the market. According to Lee, those two sides of the crypto community should find a way for “sort of interacting with each other” for crypto investors not to get burnt by crashes like this.
A stock market bubble inflates and explodes when investors, acting in a herd mentality, tend to buy stocks en masse, leading to inflated and unrealistically high market prices. In describing market bubbles, former U.S. Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan referred to investors' "irrational exuberance" on the stock market in 1996, although his prophecy didn't really ring true, as the stock market continued to grow before entering into bear market territory in 2000. A stock market bubble's "pop" is often a signal that the stock market is experiencing a crash over the short-term, and is shifting from bull-to-bear-market mode over the long-term.
Unfortunately, the Fed is fallible, just like stock market investors. If inflation -- i.e., the rising price of goods and services -- begins to heat up, the nation’s central bank could choose to get considerably more hawkish with its monetary policy. Or, in plainer English, it could get more aggressive with hiking its benchmark short-term interest rate between banks. Should that happen, interest rates for variable rate loans and mortgages would be expected to rise. This, in turn, could put the brakes on economic growth, as well as increase delinquency rates tied to variable rate loans.
Throughout his presidency, questions arose from his handling of various events, including one self-inflicted crisis after another. Tensions rose as he fired Michael Flynn and then FBI director James Comey. The selloff on the morning of May 17, 2017 occurred after reports that Comey was asked to drop the formal investigation into Flynn. If these allegations are true, this could represent the same sort of obstruction of justice which lead to the impeachment calls and, ultimately, resignation of President Richard Nixon.
Until 1982, few third-party console games existed other than Activision's. Imagic and Games by Apollo demonstrated their own 2600 cartridges in January 1982, and Coleco announced several 2600 and Intellivision games. Parker Brothers, CBS Video Games, and Mattel also announced 2600 cartridges at the February Toy Fair, and Coleco announced the ColecoVision. At the Summer 1982 Consumer Electronics Show, 17 companies including MCA Inc. and Fox Video Games announced 90 new Atari games. By 1983, an estimated 100 companies were vying to get a foothold in the video game market.
Jump up ^ "Ten Facts about the Great Video Game Crash of '83". Archived from the original on May 10, 2015. Around the time home consoles started falling out of favor, home computers like the Commodore Vic-20, the Commodore 64, and the Apple ][ became affordable for the average family. Needless to say, the computer manufacturers of the age seized on the opportunity to ask parents, "Hey, why are you spending money on a game console when a computer can let you play games and prepare you for a job?"
Professor: I certainly believe so, but this will happen with extreme volatility. I am more worried about the retail investor the so called silent majority. With this wild fluctuation, his survival rate in the market is next to zero. He will not easily believe that the market will bounce back in the near term. You cannot blame him. His ability to withstand paper loss (temporary) is very small. So he will easily buckle and sell out. All I can say is that we are slowing moving into a panic mode. We still have to wait a while to see the green shoots. Are we ready to wait?
Preparation is key. The best time to react to any potential market crash is before it occurs. Not after. Reacting in the moment can lead to expensive and costly mistakes. For example, if you saw that socks were on sale, you'd be more interested in buying socks. However, when it comes to stocks, people take a different view. When stocks are on sale, as can occur in a market crash, then often investors' instincts are to run away. Thinking about your strategy ahead of time and writing it down, just in a couple of paragraphs, can be key. Then if the markets do crash, make sure to look at that document before you act.