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In this example, a tail-hedged portfolio would spend 0.5% of its equity exposure every month buying 2-month put options that are about 30% out-of-the-money. After one month, those put options are sold and new ones bought according to the same methodology. Spitznagel demonstrates the value of this methodology in the chart below. When Tobin’s Q is in its uppermost quartile, the portfolio he describes above outperforms a simple buy-and-hold approach by about 4% per year.
So take this time to go over your holdings and tally up how much you have in stocks and how much in bonds. If you're not sure of the asset make-up in some of your investments — which may be the case if you own funds that invest in a combination of stocks and bonds — plug the names or ticker symbols of your funds into Morningstar's Instant X-Ray tool, and you'll see how your portfolio overall is divvied up between stocks, bonds and cash.
However, independent studies published in 2013 strongly disputed the last claim. In particular, in 2011 Andersen and Bondarenko conducted a comprehensive investigation of the two main versions of VPIN used by its creators, one based on the standard tick-rule (or TR-VPIN) and the other based on Bulk Volume Classification (or BVC-VPIN). They find that the value of TR-VPIN (BVC-VPIN) one hour before the crash "was surpassed on 71 (189) preceding days, constituting 11.7% (31.2%) of the pre-crash sample". Similarly, the value of TR-VPIN (BVC-VPIN) at the start of the crash was "topped on 26 (49) preceding days, or 4.3% (8.1%) of the pre-crash sample."
The affordability index continues to be stacked against potential home buyers. As housing and rental prices steadily increase, wages continue to stay relatively stagnant. Historically, the average income-to-housing cost ratio in the U.S. has hovered near 30 percent, but in some metro areas, that number is currently closer to 40 and even 50 percent! This strips away the opportunity to save money as a significant portion of a person’s monthly income is going to keeping a roof over their head.
Markets can also be stabilized by large entities purchasing massive quantities of stocks, essentially setting an example for individual traders and curbing panic selling. However, these methods are not only unproven, they may not be effective. In one famous example, the Panic of 1907, a 50 percent drop in stocks in New York set off a financial panic that threatened to bring down the financial system. J. P. Morgan, the famous financier and investor, convinced New York bankers to step in and use their personal and institutional capital to shore up markets.
“My view is that the markets are extremely overvalued, and can fall even 2,000 points from here. (Sensex). The Nifty can correct by about 1,000 points. Nothing has changed fundamentally, I mean we have the same macro-economic situation, etc, but when a sell-off happens, nobody can predict. Financials, especially NBFCs are overvalued,” Rajat Sharma, founder, Sana Securities told FE Online.
It’s not over. The worst October stock market crash since 2008 got even worse on Friday. The Dow was down another 296 points, the S&P 500 briefly dipped into correction territory, and it was another bloodbath for tech stocks. On Wednesday, I warned that there would be a bounce, and we saw that happen on Thursday. But the bounce didn’t extend into Friday. Instead, we witnessed another wave of panic selling, and that has many investors extremely concerned about what will happen next week. Overall, global stocks have now fallen for five weeks in a row, and during that time more than 8 trillion dollars in global wealth has been wiped out. That is the fastest plunge in global stock market wealth since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and it is yet another confirmation that a major turning point has arrived.
Though we don't know what will motivate a future market crash, it's likely to be something that will ultimately be recovered from if history is any guide. The economy and society are very flexible. Industries, and even countries, can rise and fall over time, but if you have a global, well-diversified and lower cost portfolio, then you should be well-positioned. This is an area where diversification helps. If you spread your bets it will likely help. You'll probably find that the next crisis centers on a specific country, part of the globe or investment theme. If you've spread your bets through diversification, then you'll undoubtedly have some assets that fall in value, perhaps alarmingly, but often certain assets can do well during certain crises such as high-quality bonds, more defensive or inexpensive parts of the stock market, or commodities including gold.