The un prepared survivors become canibals and begin to eat each other for food. Ted Turner and his elite buddies sit back and watch the show go down from satiltes in orbit and the cleansing procees commenses in time for the Hunger Games reset. The survivors run to the outskirts of the city to allow the rotting decalying bodies to finish decomposing, to return to scavange the abundance of resurces, batteries, etc
“Big surprise and a shock to me. Sitting on strong liquidity position. We have been extremely conservative in maintenance of liquidity. There is no default whatsoever. The repayments are not even due yet. There is ample liquidity lying with us in the system to take care of interest as well as the principle payouts over the next couple of quarters. All this what we are seeing is panic-stricken market reaction. Total liability position till 31 March is just Rs 4,800 crore; obviously there is some amount of CP that is there in the system, but it’s not a very big amount. At the same time there is close to Rs 10,000 crore of liquidity available with us in the system other than collections that we accrue on a monthly basis. Those collections are anywhere between 2500-3000 crore. Not to go on a pledge shares; no loan against shares NPA position is strong; asset quality is top notch,” Kapil Wadhawan, MD, DHFL told CNBC TV 18.
Based on interviews and our own independent matching of the 6,438 W&R executions to the 147,577 CME executions during that time, we know for certain that the algorithm used by W&R never took nor required liquidity. It always posted sell orders above the market and waited for a buyer; it never crossed the bid/ask spread. That means that none of the 6,438 trades were executed by hitting a bid. [...] [S]tatements from page 36 of Kirilenko's paper[4] cast serious doubt on the credibility of their analysis. [...] It is widely believed that the "sell program" refers to the algo selling the W&R contracts. However, based on the statements above, this cannot be true. The sell program must be referring to a different algo, or Kirilenko's analysis is fundamentally flawed, because the paper incorrectly identifies trades that hit the bid as executions by the W&R algo.
If you have any doubts do a few minutes of research and to find out how much the total amount of ALL the sub-prime mortgages were at the time of the crash and the government bailout. This is the proof in the pudding. When the government spent money to bail out the banks, they spent literally more than 5 times the total amount of every single sub-prime mortgage in America. That is, if the sub prime mortgages themselves were the problem at all, they could have simply paid off every single one complete and solved the problem for one/fifth the cost.
Sixth, Europe, too, will experience slower growth, owing to monetary-policy tightening and trade frictions. Moreover, populist policies in countries such as Italy may lead to an unsustainable debt dynamic within the eurozone. The still-unresolved “doom loop” between governments and banks holding public debt will amplify the existential problems of an incomplete monetary union with inadequate risk-sharing. Under these conditions, another global downturn could prompt Italy and other countries to exit the eurozone altogether.
Good harvests had built up a mass of 250 million bushels of wheat to be "carried over" when 1929 opened. By May there was also a winter-wheat crop of 560 million bushels ready for harvest in the Mississippi Valley. This oversupply caused a drop in wheat prices so heavy that the net incomes of the farming population from wheat were threatened with extinction. Stock markets are always sensitive to the future state of commodity markets, and the slump in Wall Street predicted for May by Sir George Paish arrived on time. In June 1929, the position was saved by a severe drought in the Dakotas and the Canadian West, plus unfavorable seed times in Argentina and eastern Australia. The oversupply would now be wanted to fill the big gaps in the 1929 world wheat production. From 97¢ per bushel in May, the price of wheat rose to $1.49 in July. When it was seen that at this figure American farmers would get rather more for their smaller crop than for that of 1928, stocks went up again.
Though we don't know what will motivate a future market crash, it's likely to be something that will ultimately be recovered from if history is any guide. The economy and society are very flexible. Industries, and even countries, can rise and fall over time, but if you have a global, well-diversified and lower cost portfolio, then you should be well-positioned. This is an area where diversification helps. If you spread your bets it will likely help. You'll probably find that the next crisis centers on a specific country, part of the globe or investment theme. If you've spread your bets through diversification, then you'll undoubtedly have some assets that fall in value, perhaps alarmingly, but often certain assets can do well during certain crises such as high-quality bonds, more defensive or inexpensive parts of the stock market, or commodities including gold.
But China isn’t the only wild card in the global growth deck of cards. Over in the Eurozone, Italy is brazenly threatening to move forward with a budget proposal that would obscenely breach the European Union’s budget guidelines. The bureaucrats in Brussels are threatening fines. But this doesn’t appear to be enough to inhibit the Italian government, which is intent on increasing social welfare programs, adding to pensions and giving workers a tax cut.
As of July 2011, only one theory on the causes of the flash crash was published by a Journal Citation Reports indexed, peer-reviewed scientific journal.[50] It was reported in 2011 that one hour before its collapse in 2010, the stock market registered the highest reading of "toxic order imbalance" in previous history.[50] The authors of this 2011 paper apply widely accepted market microstructure models to understand the behavior of prices in the minutes and hours prior to the crash. According to this paper, "order flow toxicity" can be measured as the probability that informed traders (e.g., hedge funds) adversely select uninformed traders (e.g., market makers). For that purpose, they developed the Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) Flow Toxicity metric, which delivered a real-time estimate of the conditions under which liquidity is being provided. If the order imbalance becomes too toxic, market makers are forced out of the market. As they withdraw, liquidity disappears, which increases even more the concentration of toxic flow in the overall volume, which triggers a feedback mechanism that forces even more market makers out. This cascading effect has caused hundreds of liquidity-induced crashes in the past, the flash crash being one (major) example of it. One hour before the flash crash, order flow toxicity was the highest in recent history.

It is not a big surprise, however, that many investors today remain interested in the forecasts of financial analysts regardless of their success. Humans in the past consulted oracles, crystal balls and tea leaves. It’s in our nature: As the proverb goes, “tell me a fact, and I'll learn; tell me a truth, and I’ll believe; but tell me a story and it will live in my heart forever.” We are attracted to story-telling, and when it comes to investing we seem to be searching for the most compelling narratives about the unknowable future, regardless of how accurate they turn out to be.


You’re correct – some are predicting a blood bath – but they have been doing so for years. And I agree some segments of the Sydney property market will fall more than 20% – especially all those new apartments many of which were sold to unsuspecting investors. I’ve read the sources you’ve quoted and I’ve also read the comments from DR Phil Lowe – our RBA Governor – I don’t think he’s a fool – I’ll listen to him

Our deficit and debt as numbers alone are kind of meaningless.. It only matters relative to other countries and relative to our GDP. For better or worse current economic theory under globalization seems to expect every country to grow and amass more debt while keeping those two values in some kind of balance. So it is hard even for an economist to say how relevant the size of the number is. And a lot of that theory is working out rather poorly for many Euro countries right now.

The SEC and CFTC joint 2010 report itself says that "May 6 started as an unusually turbulent day for the markets" and that by the early afternoon "broadly negative market sentiment was already affecting an increase in the price volatility of some individual securities". At 2:32 p.m. (EDT), against a "backdrop of unusually high volatility and thinning liquidity" that day, a large fundamental trader (known to be Waddell & Reed Financial Inc.[23]) "initiated a sell program to sell a total of 75,000 E-Mini S&P contracts (valued at approximately $4.1 billion) as a hedge to an existing equity position". The report says that this was an unusually large position and that the computer algorithm the trader used to trade the position was set to "target an execution rate set to 9% of the trading volume calculated over the previous minute, but without regard to price or time".[41]


Shares in public companies can be traded. The stock market is just like any market. Think of the ASX as Gumtree, but for pieces of ownership of massive companies. When shares change hands, the buyer and seller agree on a price, and we find out the share price. We get a new share price every time a new trade happens (which can be hundreds of times a minute). Over time that share price can go up or down.
As you can see from the numbers Dennis has on the housing market, things are much better than they were before the last crash. Lending guidelines are much tougher no matter what you hear. I see posts on Facebook all the time about how people can get low-money-down loans now, and that means the housing crash is coming. Low-money-down loans have been available for decades, and that is not what caused the housing crash. Really bad loans to people who should not buy houses is what caused the housing crisis. Those loans do not exist anymore, as you can see by the data Dennis provided. Yes, it is possible to get a loan with less than a 600 credit score, but very few people are actually getting those loans. When you look at the housing market, you need to look at the real numbers of how many houses are being built, what kind of loans people are getting, and how much house people can afford. Houses are not being built like they were before. The loans people are getting are much higher quality, and the market is much more stable than it was before.
The Fed didn't realize a collapse was brewing until March 2007. It realized that hedge fund housing losses could threaten the economy. Throughout the summer, banks became unwilling to lend to each other. They were afraid that they would receive bad MBS in return. Bankers didn't know how much bad debt they had on their books. No one wanted to admit it. If they did, then their credit rating would be lowered. Then, their stock price would fall, and they would be unable to raise more funds to stay in business.
The housing market will not grow forever, but it is hard to say when things will change. As Dennis said, real estate trends are very different in various parts of the country. Some parts of the country may see increasing prices for a few more years, while others may see a drop right away. I agree with Dennis that a housing crash like we saw in the mid-2000s is not coming anytime soon. I could see prices steadying out due to the affordability problems in some areas, especially if interest rates rise. Those two factors will not cause a crash when so few homes are being built and the quality of new loans is so high.
Yes, the market will fall by about 10% about once a year on average. However, those bigger crashes where the market just carries on down that are prominent in market memory, are rare events. Since many statistical techniques are reliant on a lot of data for robustness, those same techniques may be out of their depth when examining crashes. In fact, these events seem to break the patterns that seem to govern the market most of the times.
Shares of tech companies, including the so-called FAANG stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet – have been market darlings for years. So when a sell-off gains steam, the stocks with the biggest gains are among the ones that investors sell first to lock in profits. Tech stocks have also been caught in the trade fight with China, as Trump's tough stance on Beijing is causing disruptions in their supply chain. Technology companies such as Facebook, Twitter and Alphabet are also facing intense regulatory scrutiny from the U.S. government.
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In the US, news on the trade dispute with China will remain a focus. Beyond that, the focus will be the US Federal Reserve (Fed) (Wednesday) which is expected to raise interest rates for the eighth time for this cycle taking the Fed Funds rate range to 2-2.25% and signal that more gradual rate hikes are likely. Markets have already fully factored this in, so the interest will be on the Fed’s commentary about the outlook and its “dot plot” of future rate hikes. While the Fed may remove its description of policy as being “accommodative” its economic commentary is likely to be upbeat and the dot plot is likely to remain consistent with more gradual rate hikes, ultimately taking the Fed Funds rate above the Fed’s currently assessed long run “neutral rate” of around 2.75-3%. This will likely mean more rate hikes over the next two years than the three and a half the market is currently allowing for. On the data front in the US, expect ongoing home price gains and another strong consumer confidence reading (both Tuesday), slight gains in new home sales (Wednesday) and pending home sales (Thursday), ongoing strength in durable goods orders (also Thursday) continued strength in consumer spending but a fall back in core private consumption deflator inflation to 1.9% year-on-year for August (Friday).

Eh... Who cares?! I'll pay... a 49 + 1/4 bid for 50,000 Procter, if I were at my hedge fund. I mean, this is ridi... this is a good opportunity. When I walked down here it was at 61—when I walked down here it was at 61, I'm not that interested in it. It's at 47, well that's a different security entirely, so what you have to do, though, you have to use limit orders, because Procter just jumped seven points because I said I liked it at 49.


Take your money out of the bank ASAP.  If you still keep your money in the bank, go there and remove as much as you can while leaving in enough to pay your bills. Although it wasn’t a market collapse in Greece recently, the banks did close and limit ATM withdrawals.  People went for quite some time without being able to access their money, but were able to have a sense of normalcy by transferring money online to pay bills or using their debit cards to make purchases.  Get your cash out. You don’t want to be at the mercy of the banks.
Throughout his presidency, questions arose from his handling of various events, including one self-inflicted crisis after another. Tensions rose as he fired Michael Flynn and then FBI director James Comey. The selloff on the morning of May 17, 2017 occurred after reports that Comey was asked to drop the formal investigation into Flynn. If these allegations are true, this could represent the same sort of obstruction of justice which lead to the impeachment calls and, ultimately, resignation of President Richard Nixon.
The 10-year Treasury note – whose key rate impacts the pricing on things ranging from fixed-rate mortgages to stocks to virtually every financial asset on the planet – recently climbed above 3.25 percent for the first time since May 2011. And when you add the threat of higher borrowing costs on things such as houses and cars and corporate debt to the economic obstacles caused by the U.S. trade war with China, all it takes is a whiff of weakness to set a major sell-off in motion.
Shortly after the crash, the Federal Reserve decided to intervene to prevent an even greater crisis. Short-term interest rates were instantly lowered to prevent a recession and banking crisis. Remarkably, the markets recovered fairly quickly from the worst one day stock market crash. Unlike after the stock market crash of 1929, the stock market quickly embarked on a bull run after the October crash. The post-crash bull market was driven by companies that bought back their stocks that that the considered to be undervalued after the market meltdown. Another reason why stocks continued to rise after the crash was that the Japanese economy and stock market was embarking on its own massive bull market, which helped to pull the U.S. stock market to previously-unforeseen heights. After the 1987 stock market crash, as system of circuit breakers were put into place to electronically halt stocks from trading if they plummet too quickly.
The second reason is that it is impossible to predict the beginning of a bull market. By sitting through the crash, you are basically ensuring that your investments are safe and rolling. History teaches us that stocks rally back to their old levels, given some time. Also, stock crashes in the last 100 years have lasted an average of just over ten months. So if waiting is an option, it would be the best one.
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