You’re correct – some are predicting a blood bath – but they have been doing so for years. And I agree some segments of the Sydney property market will fall more than 20% – especially all those new apartments many of which were sold to unsuspecting investors. I’ve read the sources you’ve quoted and I’ve also read the comments from DR Phil Lowe – our RBA Governor – I don’t think he’s a fool – I’ll listen to him
Jump up ^ Lambert, Richard (July 19, 2008). "Crashes, Bangs & Wallops". Financial Times. Retrieved September 30, 2008. At the turn of the 20th century stock market speculation was restricted to professionals, but the 1920s saw millions of 'ordinary Americans' investing in the New York Stock Exchange. By August 1929, brokers had lent small investors more than two-thirds of the face value of the stocks they were buying on margin – more than $8.5bn was out on loan.
Futures and options markets are hedging and risk transfer markets. The report references a series of bona fide hedging transactions, totaling 75,000 contracts, entered into by an institutional asset manager to hedge a portion of the risk in its $75 billion investment portfolio in response to global economic events and the fundamentally deteriorating market conditions that day. The 75,000 contracts represented 1.3% of the total E-Mini S&P 500 volume of 5.7 million contracts on May 6 and less than 9% of the volume during the time period in which the orders were executed. The prevailing market sentiment was evident well before these orders were placed, and the orders, as well as the manner in which they were entered, were both legitimate and consistent with market practices. These hedging orders were entered in relatively small quantities and in a manner designed to dynamically adapt to market liquidity by participating in a target percentage of 9% of the volume executed in the market. As a result of the significant volumes traded in the market, the hedge was completed in approximately twenty minutes, with more than half of the participant's volume executed as the market rallied—not as the market declined. Additionally, the aggregate size of this participant's orders was not known to other market participants.
One of the big drivers of the stock market since 2008 has been monetary policy: in specific, the Quantitative Easing program of the Federal Reserve and the low interest rates. While the former put a lot of new money into bonds (keeping those interest rates low), the latter kept the world's least risky investment paying out very little. As a result, a lot of money chased better returns in the stock market.
TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
In addition, the rapid growth of the video game industry led to an increased demand for video games, but which the manufacturers over-projected. An analyst for Goldman Sachs had stated in 1983 that the demand for video games was up 100% from 1982, but the manufacturing output increased by 175%, creating a surplus in the market.[4] Raymond Kassar, the CEO of Atari, had recognized in 1982 that there would become a point of saturation for the industry, but did not expect this to occur until about half of American households had a video game console; at the time, only about 15 million machines had been sold, far below this expected point.[4]
Accolade achieved a technical victory in one court case against Sega, challenging this control, even though it ultimately yielded and signed the Sega licensing agreement. Several publishers, notably Tengen (Atari), Color Dreams, and Camerica, challenged Nintendo's control system during the 8-bit era by producing unlicensed NES games. The concepts of such a control system remain in use on every major video game console produced today, even with fewer "cartridge-based" consoles on the market than in the 8/16-bit era. Replacing the security chips in most modern consoles are specially encoded optical discs that cannot be copied by most users and can only be read by a particular console under normal circumstances.

Conversely, if production issues strike a major producer (imagine, for example, a civil war in Libya), then skyrocketing oil prices could also have a detrimental impact. Rising crude prices could lead to significantly higher inflation levels and sap consumers of discretionary income at the pump or in their homes via fuel oil. We saw something similar to this in 2008, when West Texas Intermediate made a run at $150 per barrel following escalating tensions between Iran and the United States.
1986 and 1987 were banner years for the stock market. These years were an extension of an extremely powerful bull market that had started in the summer of 1982. This bull market had been fueled by low interest rates, hostile takeovers, leveraged buyouts and merger mania. Many companies were scrambling to raise capital to buy each other out. The business philosophy of the time was that companies could grow exponentially simply by constantly acquiring other companies. In a leveraged buyout, a company would raise a massive amount of capital by selling junk bonds to the public. Junk bonds are bonds that pay high interest rates due to their high risk of default. The capital raised through selling junk bonds would go toward the purchase of the desired company. IPOs were also becoming a commonplace driver of market excitement. An IPO or Initial Public Offering is when a company issues stock to the public for the first time. “Microcomputers” now known as personal computers were become a fast growing industry. People started to view the personal computer as a revolutionary tool that would change our way of life, while creating wonderful business opportunities. The investing public eventually became caught up in a contagious euphoria that was similar to that of any other historic bubble and market crash. This euphoria made investors, as usual, believe that the stock market would “always go up.”
When you think of oil production, the Middle East or OPEC is probably what comes to mind. But substantial shale finds in the United States in recent decades have pushed the nation the No. 3 spot in terms of daily production as of 2016, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. At 8.88 million barrels of oil production per day, the U.S. is responsible for more than 10% of global production. 
It's true that higher interest rates preceded the housing collapse in 2006. But that's because of the many borrowers who had interest-only loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. Unlike a conventional loan, the interest rates rise along with the fed funds rate. Many also had introductory teaser rates that reset after three years. When the Federal Reserve raised rates at the same time they reset, borrowers found they could no longer afford the payments. Home prices fell at the same time, so these mortgage-holders couldn't make the payments or sell the house.
The crash on October 19, 1987, a date that is also known as Black Monday, was the climactic culmination of a market decline that had begun five days before on October 14. The DJIA fell 3.81 percent on October 14, followed by another 4.60 percent drop on Friday, October 16. On Black Monday, the Dow Jones Industrials Average plummeted 508 points, losing 22.6% of its value in one day. The S&P 500 dropped 20.4%, falling from 282.7 to 225.06. The NASDAQ Composite lost only 11.3%, not because of restraint on the part of sellers, but because the NASDAQ market system failed. Deluged with sell orders, many stocks on the NYSE faced trading halts and delays. Of the 2,257 NYSE-listed stocks, there were 195 trading delays and halts during the day.[27] The NASDAQ market fared much worse. Because of its reliance on a "market making" system that allowed market makers to withdraw from trading, liquidity in NASDAQ stocks dried up. Trading in many stocks encountered a pathological condition where the bid price for a stock exceeded the ask price. These "locked" conditions severely curtailed trading. On October 19, trading in Microsoft shares on the NASDAQ lasted a total of 54 minutes.
The level of panic that we witnessed on Wall Street on Wednesday was breathtaking.  After a promising start to the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started plunging, and at the close it was down another 608 points.  Since peaking at 26,951.81 on October 3rd, the Dow has now fallen 2,368 points, and all of the gains for 2018 have been completely wiped out.  But things are even worse when we look at the Nasdaq.  The percentage decline for the Nasdaq almost doubled the Dow’s stunning plunge on Wednesday, and it has now officially entered correction territory.  To say that it was a “bloodbath” for tech stocks on Wednesday would be a major understatement.  Several big name tech stocks were in free fall mode as panic swept through the marketplace like wildfire.  As I noted the other day, October 2018 looks a whole lot like October 2008, and many believe that the worst is yet to come.
The turbulence of the election, rising interest rates against overheated housing markets does give some plausibility to a US housing crash in 2018 or 2019. Proponents of an upcoming crash point to too many Americans living lavish lifestyles, still buying expensive foreign luxury cars on a $40,000 salary, while sitting on over-leveraged monster mortgages that could be subject to quickly rising mortgage rates.
The internal reasons included innovations with index futures and portfolio insurance. I've seen accounts that maybe roughly half the trading on that day was a small number of institutions with portfolio insurance. Big guys were dumping their stock. Also, the futures market in Chicago was even lower than the stock market, and people tried to arbitrage that. The proper strategy was to buy futures in Chicago and sell in the New York cash market. It made it hard – the portfolio insurance people were also trying to sell their stock at the same time.[14]
Of course, sometimes something happens. On June 23, 2016, voters in the United Kingdom voted for their country to leave the European Union. Membership in the EU means improved trade policies, less friction around goods and services and people moving across borders, and (despite the economic kerfuffle around different economic strengths and weaknesses between member countries) a general sharing of wealth from multiple countries all working more or less together.
No definitive conclusions have been reached on the reasons behind the 1987 Crash. Stocks had been in a multi-year bull run and market P/E ratios in the U.S. were above the post-war average. The S&P 500 was trading at 23 times earnings, a postwar high and well above the average of 14.5 times earnings.[29] Herd behavior and psychological feedback loops play a critical part in all stock market crashes but analysts have also tried to look for external triggering events. Aside from the general worries of stock market overvaluation, blame for the collapse has been apportioned to such factors as program trading, portfolio insurance and derivatives, and prior news of worsening economic indicators (i.e. a large U.S. merchandise trade deficit and a falling U.S. dollar, which seemed to imply future interest rate hikes).[30]
Jump up ^ Coleco Presents The Adam Computer System. YouTube. May 3, 2016 [1983-09-28]. Event occurs at 1:06:55. Archived from the original on January 3, 2017. IBM is just not another strong company making a positive statement about the home-computer field's future. IBM is a company that knows how to make money. IBM is a company that knows how to make money in hardware, and makes more money in software. What IBM can bring to the home-computer field is something that the field collectively needs, particularly now: A respect for profitability. A capability to earn money. That is precisely what the field needs ... I look back a year or two in the videogame field, or the home-computer field, how much better everyone was, when most people were making money, rather than very few were making money.
On October 19th 1987, $500 billion in market capitalization was evaporated from the Dow Jones stock index. Markets in nearly every country around the world plunged in a similar fashion. When individual investors heard that a massive stock market crash was occurring, they rushed to call their brokers to sell their stocks. This was unsuccessful because each broker had many clients. Many people lost millions of dollars instantly. There are stories of some unstable individuals who had lost large amounts of money who went to their broker’s office with a gun and started shooting. A few brokers were killed despite the fact that they had no control over the market action. The majority of investors who were selling did not even know why they were selling except for the fact that “everyone else was selling.” This emotionally-charged behavior is one of the main reasons that the stock market crashed so dramatically. After the October 19th plunge, many futures and stock exchanges were shut down for a day.
The yuan has fallen nearly 10% against the dollar since April ‘18. The Chinese are currently trying to keep the currency from falling below the key support level of seven to the dollar. The yuan hasn’t traded that low in more than a decade; but holding that line has become more difficult as China dances capriciously from deleveraging to massive stimulus measures. In order to defend the value of the Yuan, China has depleted much of its dollar reserves.
Still lacking sufficient demand from fundamental buyers or cross-market arbitrageurs, HFTs began to quickly buy and then resell contracts to each other—generating a “hot-potato” volume effect as the same positions were rapidly passed back and forth. Between 2:45:13 and 2:45:27, HFTs traded over 27,000 contracts, which accounted for about 49 percent of the total trading volume, while buying only about 200 additional contracts net.
In 2011 high-frequency traders moved away from the stock market as there had been lower volatility and volume. The combined average daily trading volume in the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market in the first four months of 2011 fell 15% from 2010, to an average of 6.3 billion shares a day. Trading activities declined throughout 2011, with April's daily average of 5.8 billion shares marking the lowest month since May 2008. Sharp movements in stock prices, which were frequent during the period from 2008 to the first half of 2010, were in a decline in the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, the VIX, which fell to its lowest level in April 2011 since July 2007.[83]

Can I guarantee this approach will lead to the best results over the long-term? Of course not. But at least you'll be following a disciplined rational strategy rather than engaging in a never-ending guessing game of trying to decide when to get out of the market (and where to put your money once you do) and then trying to figure out when to get back in. That's a game you can't consistently win.
According to the NYSE TICK, or uptick minus downtick, index, at precisely 2:43pm, the selling order flood was so big it not only surpassed the acute liquidation that was observed around 3PM on Wednesday, but the -1,793 print was one that had not been seen for 8 years: as Bay Crest Partners technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky wrote, the sudden and violent surge in selling as measured by the TICK index, when downtick volume overpowered upticks, was the lowest reading since the May 6, 2010 “flash crash” when liquidity dried up in markets, sending the market plummeting for a few minutes, as HFT briefly went haywire (or when a spoofer outsmarted the algos, depending on what version of events one believes).
The level of panic that we witnessed on Wall Street on Wednesday was breathtaking.  After a promising start to the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started plunging, and at the close it was down another 608 points.  Since peaking at 26,951.81 on October 3rd, the Dow has now fallen 2,368 points, and all of the gains for 2018 have been completely wiped out.  But things are even worse when we look at the Nasdaq.  The percentage decline for the Nasdaq almost doubled the Dow’s stunning plunge on Wednesday, and it has now officially entered correction territory.  To say that it was a “bloodbath” for tech stocks on Wednesday would be a major understatement.  Several big name tech stocks were in free fall mode as panic swept through the marketplace like wildfire.  As I noted the other day, October 2018 looks a whole lot like October 2008, and many believe that the worst is yet to come.
The crucial point of their paper was that sandpile avalanches could not be predicted, and not because of randomness (there was no random component in their model) or because the authors could not figure out how to come up with equations to describe it. Rather, they found it impossible in a fundamental sense to set up equations that would describe the sandpile model analytically, so there was no way to predict what the sandpile would do. The only way to observe its behavior was to set up the model in a computer and let it run.

The panic began again on Black Monday (October 28), with the market closing down 12.8 percent. On Black Tuesday (October 29) more than 16 million shares were traded. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost another 12 percent and closed at 198—a drop of 183 points in less than two months. Prime securities tumbled like the issues of bogus gold mines. General Electric fell from 396 on September 3 to 210 on October 29. American Telephone and Telegraph dropped 100 points. DuPont fell from a summer high of 217 to 80, United States Steel from 261 to 166, Delaware and Hudson from 224 to 141, and Radio Corporation of America (RCA) common stock from 505 to 26. Political and financial leaders at first affected to treat the matter as a mere spasm in the market, vying with one another in reassuring statements. President Hoover and Treasury Secretary Andrew W. Mellon led the way with optimistic predictions that business was “fundamentally sound” and that a great revival of prosperity was “just around the corner.” Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly reached the 300 mark again in 1930, it sank rapidly in May 1930. Another 20 years would pass before the Dow average regained enough momentum to surpass the 200-point level.
Interesting points. To say a 2 billion dollar a day trade deficit is meaningless might be understating it. Running trade deficits every year is dangerous and leads to the recession you’re fearing. It’s the trade policies that make it happen. The global economy was highly dependent on US willing to run huge trade deficits and Europe and China are undergoing withdrawal problems.

Hi Skylar, I can’t offer advice unfortunately. Availability in Northern Virginia is very constrained, so the question is whether new homes are being built. People aren’t selling their homes, listings down 4%, and the economy is strong. It’s risky which is why governments are amending financing rules. Did you consider buying a property with a rental income unit?
It is believed that Khashoggi was dismembered after being abducted by the Saudis, and all of the major western powers have expressed major concern about his fate.  But the Saudis insist that they didn’t have anything to do with his disappearance, and they are threatening “greater action” if any sanctions are imposed upon them.  The following comes from USA Today…
Economic effects of the September 11 attacks (2001) Stock market downturn of 2002 Chinese stock bubble of 2007 United States bear market of 2007–09 Financial crisis of 2007–08 Dubai debt standstill European debt crisis 2010 Flash Crash 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami (Aftermath) August 2011 stock markets fall 2011 Bangladesh share market scam 2015–16 Chinese stock market turbulence 2015–16 stock market crash 2016 United Kingdom EU referendum (Aftermath) 2018 Cryptocurrency crash
On the other hand, tax increases can have the opposite effect. One potential way to fix the Social Security funding problem would be to raise payroll taxes on employees and employers. There are several ways this could happen, but this would mean lower paychecks for workers and higher expenses for employers, and could certainly be a negative catalyst.

This crisis is rooted in the failure to learn the lessons of 2008 and of every other recession since the Fed’s creation: A secretive central bank should not be allowed to manipulate interest rates and distort economic signals regarding market conditions. Such action leads to malinvestment and an explosion of individual, business, and government debt. This may cause a temporary boom, but the boom soon will be followed by a bust. The only way this cycle can be broken without a major crisis is for Congress both to restore people’s right to use the currency of their choice and to audit and then end the Fed.

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You are obviously a banker of some sort. The bankers and the bank owners are fucking greedy bastards. PERIOD. Look at the situation. They make billions but cant provide benefits. It is the obligation of owners and investors to provide for workers. Its is supposed to work that way. But they and you KEEP it all and give the people swill. You al suck and have been compared to serial killers on a psychological level.. Stop defending the indefensible! you bought the bailout in 08 and the took bonuses for causing it. You put people and kids in th street then went sailing. So fuck you and your bastard cronies!!!!!


So aim to build a war chest for a future market meltdown by accumulating cash. It's probably best not to overdo it, though, because the market may not crash for another few years, in which time all the cash you've amassed will not have been growing for you in stocks. You might just accumulate enough cash to establish meaningful positions in a few stocks. In general, it can be good to have no more than 10% of your overall net worth in cash for investments.

In Berkshire's 2017 shareholder letter, Buffett outlined four times when Berkshire stock fell 37% or more, representing what he called "truly major dips." The biggest decline occurred from March 1973 to January 1975, when Berkshire stock declined a whopping 59%. "In the next 53 years our shares (and others) will experience declines resembling those in the table," Buffett said about these four major declines. "No one can tell you when these will happen. The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.

Soaring home prices, combined with 50-year low interest rates, have lulled U.S. homebuyers into a false sense of security. But current economic conditions, combined with the actions of overly aggressive lenders, leave the housing market ripe for a major crash. The Coming Crash in the Housing Market is the first rational, unbiased examination of the dangers homeowners face in today's climate of overpriced housing and overextended credit. Asking and answering questions that have for too long been ignored, respected economic consultant John Talbott provides:


The crash shook the then-booming industry, and led to the bankruptcy of several companies producing home computers and video game consoles in the region. It lasted about two years. Analysts of the time expressed doubts about the long-term viability of video game consoles and software. The North American video game console industry recovered a few years later, mostly due to the widespread success of the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) in 1985; Nintendo designed the NES as the Western branding for its Famicom console originally released in 1983 to avoid the missteps that caused the 1983 crash and avoid the stigma that video games had at that time.
The Fed underestimated the size and impact of the mortgage-backed securities market. Banks had hired "quant jocks" to create these new securities. They wrote computer programs that sorted packages of mortgages into high-risk and low-risk bundles. The high-risk bundles paid more but were more likely to default. The low-risk bundles were safer, but paid less.
Thus, Buffett has not said anything specific to the effect of “the stock market will crash in 2018.” He doesn’t have to make any such statement. An expert prediction is just that: a prediction. The smarter the expert, the less tendency there is to trust forecasts and prophecies. But if you use the expert prediction as a guide to understand what’s happening, you can detect trends. Thus, you can prepare and take appropriate actions that will not leave you stranded. If the negative predictions do materialize, you can take comfort in the fact you were ready. If they don’t, you can enjoy the favorable outcome with everyone else.
Ninth, Trump was already attacking the Fed when the growth rate was recently 4%. Just think about how he will behave in the 2020 election year, when growth likely will have fallen below 1% and job losses emerge. The temptation for Trump to “wag the dog” by manufacturing a foreign-policy crisis will be high, especially if the Democrats retake the House of Representatives this year.
If you’ve gone with a “set it and forget it” strategy — like investing in a target-date retirement fund, as many 401(k) plans allow you to do, or using a robo-advisor — diversification already is built in. In this case, it’s best to sit tight and trust that your portfolio is ready to ride out the storm. You’ll still experience some painful short-term jolts, but this will help you avoid losses from which your portfolio can’t recover.
It’s a sorry reflection of the times we live in when we celebrate the rising cost of providing shelter for your family. The social cost of both parents having to work in order to afford a home – kids in daycare, less disposable income to put to into their development… this is the situation for so many families now. This inconvenient truth is happily ignored by those who profit in the current market, and while money it to be made it is unlikely to change.
In 1987, you had an economy that was slowing from a rapid recovery, Treasury yields that were huge and falling, and an inflation rate that was running around 4%. Today, you have an economy that is just starting to boom, Treasury yields that are low and rising, and an inflation rate running around 2%. In other words, the economic conditions are starkly different.
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