While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices. These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.
Analysts say it's possible about 1 million barrels could be off the market by year-end. A much larger amount would squeeze supply and affect prices, Harris said. Already, companies have announced that they will step back from dealing with Iran, and Harris said the sanctions could create tensions between the U.S. and five countries that remain in the Iran nuclear deal. The U.S. broke from that group and decided on its own to reapply sanctions.
The mathematical description of stock market movements has been a subject of intense interest. The conventional assumption has been that stock markets behave according to a random log-normal distribution. Among others, mathematician Benoît Mandelbrot suggested as early as 1963 that the statistics prove this assumption incorrect. Mandelbrot observed that large movements in prices (i.e. crashes) are much more common than would be predicted from a log-normal distribution. Mandelbrot and others suggested that the nature of market moves is generally much better explained using non-linear analysis and concepts of chaos theory. This has been expressed in non-mathematical terms by George Soros in his discussions of what he calls reflexivity of markets and their non-linear movement. George Soros said in late October 1987, 'Mr. Robert Prechter's reversal proved to be the crack that started the avalanche'.
Ultimately, if there is a going to be a full-blown collapse of the stock market right now, we would need some sort of “kick off event” in order to make that happen. It would have to be something on the scale of another 9/11, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, an unprecedented natural disaster, the start of a major war or something else along those lines.
One disconcerting aspect is that large avalanches, epic earthquakes or giant forest fires do not seem to be very special: They appear to be just less frequent, scaled-up versions of small ones. If this is true, then a stock market crash may not be special at all, but merely a larger-than-usual down day, and just as unpredictable. This would present a big challenge to traditional investment methods.
This also means that it is a mistake to think of investors as a bunch of clueless, greed-driven lemmings falling off a cliff during a market crash. For example, during the real estate boom of the mid-2000s people kept buying homes despite an abundance of media articles pointing out that the property market was swept in a mania. There was no question, even then, that the market was overheated. So why did people continue to buy homes?
The transition to a US centered economy puts the country into a vulnerable period of uncertainty and GDP risk. Companies are hoarding products from China right now while the tariff is 10%, but on January 1st 2019, it will be 25% and that should stop imports completely, especially if the US dollar should weaken. Will companies build factories here or instead hold off and hope for a Trump loss in 2020?
Hi Tamara, a vacation rental property owner in San Diego County I knew did well during the recession. Prices are much higher now and you’ll need to be a very good rental property manager. Take a look at the San Diego Housing market report if you didn’t read it. San Diego’s fantastic and the shortage there will never ease. My opinion is that you need to be a good marketer to keep it rented. If you build up a good database of returning renters, you should be okay. With VRBO and Airbnb, you’ll have extra reach too. With Trump bringing jobs and investment money back home, I can’t see a recession, just volatility and maybe some trade wars!
Investing in the stock market is inherently risky, but what makes for winning long-term returns is the ability to ride out the unpleasantness and remain invested for the eventual recovery (which, historically speaking, is always on the horizon). You’ll be able to do that if you know how much volatility you’re willing to stomach in exchange for higher potential returns.
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The CAPE ratio (also known as Shiller P/E ratio) is a long term cyclically adjusted measure of equity valuations devised by the respected economist Robert Shiller. The CAPE ratio has been at historically high level for several years, although high valuations alone do not mean a crash is imminent. Whether US stock prices today are in a stock bubble or not is debatable. In general, bubbles do not necessarily imply a crash, unless there is a catalyst.
Based on interviews and our own independent matching of the 6,438 W&R executions to the 147,577 CME executions during that time, we know for certain that the algorithm used by W&R never took nor required liquidity. It always posted sell orders above the market and waited for a buyer; it never crossed the bid/ask spread. That means that none of the 6,438 trades were executed by hitting a bid. [...] [S]tatements from page 36 of Kirilenko's paper cast serious doubt on the credibility of their analysis. [...] It is widely believed that the "sell program" refers to the algo selling the W&R contracts. However, based on the statements above, this cannot be true. The sell program must be referring to a different algo, or Kirilenko's analysis is fundamentally flawed, because the paper incorrectly identifies trades that hit the bid as executions by the W&R algo.
However, there are a few qualifications to this: there is some risk that the migrant intake may be cut; while accelerating population growth in Queensland will support Brisbane property prices, population growth is slowing in NSW and Victoria so it’s becoming a bit less supportive of property prices in those states; and the supply of new dwellings has been catching up to strong population growth so undersupply is giving way to oversupply in some areas. The risk of the latter is highlighted by the continuing very high residential crane count which is still dominated by Sydney and Melbourne, indicating that there is still of lot of supply to hit the market ahead. Out of interest, Australia’s total residential crane count alone of 528 cranes is way above the total crane count (ie residential and non-residential) in the US of 300 and Canada of 123!
The Toronto situation is similar to Vancouver’s housing market where prices have really plummeted (43%). With the resolution of trade with the US, it appears no Toronto housing crash is imminent, and prices will return to their upward climb. Inevitably, high interest rates and Canada’s lack of competitiveness will create a new crisis. New listings will likely drop as homeowners feel more comfortable with their employment outlook, and enjoy the housing price rise.
If you could only listen to one person's advice during a stock market crash, let that person be famed investor, Warren Buffett. Not only will the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) (NYSE: BRK-A) chairman and CEO's advice serve you well, but his knack for keeping a clear head -- and even getting a bit greedy (more on that later) -- when everyone else is selling, may make his the only advice you need to navigate uncertain times.
Any of the measurements people quote—any of the stock market indexes which go up and down—are just measurements. They're averages. They're big bundles of numbers all mixed together. In all truth, they only reflect a snapshot of a point in time. They're numbers that stocks happened to end on when trading stopped for the day (or, at least, paused until after hours trading took over).
However, the psychological effects of the crash reverberated across the nation as businesses became aware of the difficulties in securing capital market investments for new projects and expansions. Business uncertainty naturally affects job security for employees, and as the American worker (the consumer) faced uncertainty with regards to income, naturally the propensity to consume declined. The decline in stock prices caused bankruptcies and severe macroeconomic difficulties, including contraction of credit, business closures, firing of workers, bank failures, decline of the money supply, and other economically depressing events.
The following day, Black Tuesday, was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The Dow fell 30.57 points to close at 230.07 on that day. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23% – from Wikipedia
The video game crash of 1983 (known as the Atari shock in Japan) was a large-scale recession in the video game industry that occurred from 1983 to 1985, primarily in North America. The crash was attributed to several factors, including market saturation in the number of game consoles and available games, and waning interest in console games in favor of personal computers. Revenues peaked at around $3.2 billion in 1983, then fell to around $100 million by 1985 (a drop of almost 97 percent). The crash was a serious event that brought an abrupt end to what is retrospectively considered the second generation of console video gaming in North America.
After Black Monday, regulators overhauled trade-clearing protocols to bring uniformity to all prominent market products. They also developed new rules, known as "trading curbs" or colloquially as circuit breakers, allowing exchanges to temporarily halt trading in instances of exceptionally large price declines in some indexes; for instance, the DJIA.
Consequently, we believe, that irrespective of technology, markets can become fragile when imbalances arise as a result of large traders seeking to buy or sell quantities larger than intermediaries are willing to temporarily hold, and simultaneously long-term suppliers of liquidity are not forthcoming even if significant price concessions are offered.
The housing market peaked somewhere in 2006. We were beginning to see some of the early signs of trouble when some types of subprime loans started to go into default. There wasn’t worry at that time since never in history have prices for housing market gone down nationally. Once the credit markets froze in summer 2007, things began to deteriorate rapidly. Subprime credit stopped completely and interest rates for credit for other types of borrowing including corporate loans as well as consumer loans rose dramatically.
Prices began to decline in September and early October, but speculation continued, fueled in many cases by individuals who had borrowed money to buy shares—a practice that could be sustained only as long as stock prices continued rising. On October 18 the market went into a free fall, and the wild rush to buy stocks gave way to an equally wild rush to sell. The first day of real panic, October 24, is known as Black Thursday; on that day a record 12.9 million shares were traded as investors rushed to salvage their losses. Still, the Dow average closed down only six points after a number of major banks and investment companies bought up great blocks of stock in a successful effort to stem the panic that day. Their attempts, however, ultimately failed to shore up the market.
A popular explanation for the 1987 crash was computerized selling dictated by portfolio insurance hedges. However, economist Dean Furbush pointed out that the biggest price drops occurred during light trading volume. In program trading, computers execute rapid stock trades based on external inputs, such as the price of related securities. Common strategies implemented by program trading involve an attempt to engage in arbitrage and portfolio insurance strategies. As computer technology became widespread, program trading grew dramatically within Wall Street firms. After the crash, many blamed program trading strategies for blindly selling stocks as markets fell, exacerbating the decline. Some economists theorized that the speculative boom leading up to October was caused by program trading, and that the crash was merely a return to normalcy. Either way, program trading ended up taking the majority of the blame in the public eye for the 1987 stock market crash. U.S. Congressman Edward J. Markey, who had been warning about the possibility of a crash, stated that "Program trading was the principal cause."
Recently, Netherlands-based “Big Four” auditor KPMG has released another bullish stance on crypto, claiming that the industry needs institutional investors’ participation in order to “realize its potential.” Earlier last week, CoinShares CSO Meltem Demirors claimed that the the recent collapse of the markets is caused by institutions“taking money off the table” due to Bitcoin Cash’s (BCH) hard fork.
The 1973–74 stock market crash caused a bear market between January 1973 and December 1974. Affecting all the major stock markets in the world, particularly the United Kingdom, it was one of the worst stock market downturns in modern history. The crash came after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system over the previous two years, with the associated 'Nixon Shock' and United States dollar devaluation under the Smithsonian Agreement. It was compounded by the outbreak of the 1973 oil crisis in October of that year. It was a major event of the 1970s recession.
In 2011 high-frequency traders moved away from the stock market as there had been lower volatility and volume. The combined average daily trading volume in the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market in the first four months of 2011 fell 15% from 2010, to an average of 6.3 billion shares a day. Trading activities declined throughout 2011, with April's daily average of 5.8 billion shares marking the lowest month since May 2008. Sharp movements in stock prices, which were frequent during the period from 2008 to the first half of 2010, were in a decline in the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, the VIX, which fell to its lowest level in April 2011 since July 2007.
What triggered the sudden fall in indian market ? From July to September 2018, 2 of IL& FS 256 subsidiaries reported having trouble paying back loans and intercorporate deposits to other banks and lenders , resulting in RBI requesting its major shareholders to rescue it . In July 2018 , Hindu Business line reported that the road arm of IL & FS was having difficulty making payments due on its bonds . In the same month , Business standard reported that it's founder Ravi Parthsarathy would be leaving the firm . In September Economic Times reported that one of the IL & FS group of companies called IL& FS Financial services limited had default on its commercial paper payments .This led to an audit by RBI . IL& FS Financial services limited had defaulted on repaying about 450 Cr worth of intercorporate deposits to Small industrial development bank of India ( SIDBI ) . This created panic in investors and they also doubted other arms of the IL&FS . This resulted in sudden fall in stocks related to financial institutions such as DHFL, Indiabulls housing finance , Canfin homes etc . Not only financial services stocks got butchered but other sectors such as infrastructure stocks also got plummeted as IL& FS deals with funding of many sectors .
They are missing one imprtant thing in their analysis. This time around one can not look a historical data and charts. Market have never before been rigged like they are today. Frequency trading , shorts , naked shorts, fututres(in case of commodities it means unlimited supply of virtual goods) ETFs, etc. Never in historyhedge funds have been so sophisticated in rigging markets so none of the technical data or any fundamentals play a role over here. It's what riggers want to do ..........
Throughout his presidency, questions arose from his handling of various events, including one self-inflicted crisis after another. Tensions rose as he fired Michael Flynn and then FBI director James Comey. The selloff on the morning of May 17, 2017 occurred after reports that Comey was asked to drop the formal investigation into Flynn. If these allegations are true, this could represent the same sort of obstruction of justice which lead to the impeachment calls and, ultimately, resignation of President Richard Nixon.
I have been an agent and real estate investor since 2001. I have seen the good times in the early 2000’s, worked through the housing crash, and the good times again. A lot of people think we are due for anther housing market crash because housing prices have increased in many areas of the country. Besides prices, there are many things that drive the housing market. In fact, prices cannot be used as an indicator of what the market will do because they are just a result of many other factors. Supply and demand are what push prices up or down. Supply is affected by foreclosures, homeowners’ willingness to move, new construction, and many other factors. Demand is driven by the economy, lending guidelines, potential homeowners confidence, wages, and much more. I believe the supply and demand affecting today’s’ housing market is much different than what drove the last housing boom. While prices could level out or decrease in some areas, I do not think we are in for a nationwide crash.
However, independent studies published in 2013 strongly disputed the last claim. In particular, in 2011 Andersen and Bondarenko conducted a comprehensive investigation of the two main versions of VPIN used by its creators, one based on the standard tick-rule (or TR-VPIN) and the other based on Bulk Volume Classification (or BVC-VPIN). They find that the value of TR-VPIN (BVC-VPIN) one hour before the crash "was surpassed on 71 (189) preceding days, constituting 11.7% (31.2%) of the pre-crash sample". Similarly, the value of TR-VPIN (BVC-VPIN) at the start of the crash was "topped on 26 (49) preceding days, or 4.3% (8.1%) of the pre-crash sample."
The trade-sensitive industrial stocks led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record closing high on Thursday, the last of Wall Street's main indexes to fully regain ground since a correction that began in January with all three major US indexes finishing higher as trade worries subsided. Microsoft Corp and Apple Inc rose 1.7% and 0.8%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 251.22 points, or 0.95% to 26,656.98, the S&P 500 gained 22.8 points, or 0.78% to 2,930.75 and the Nasdaq Composite added 78.19 points, or 0.98% to 8,028.23.
Thank you Dan. Congrats on the new member of the family. Yes, so many people are facing the decision to leave the GTA entirely. Might be agonizing at first, but it might be better for your kids. With the Internet, they won’t miss much. What do you think of Calgary? Buy low and and wait for oil to come back? Isn’t that how big fortunes are made? I don’t know of any such lists but perhaps I should make one:). What’s the first place that comes to mind when you think about moving?
3. They also found, to the surprise of some readers I’m sure, “that some widely cited economic variables displayed an unexpected, counterintuitive correlation with future returns. The ratio of govern- ment debt to GDP is an example: Although its R2makes it seem a better performer than others, the reason is actually opposite to what one would expect—the government debt/GDP ratio has had a positive relationship with the long-term realized return. In other words, higher government debt levels have been associated with higher future stock returns, at least in the United States since 1926″.