People who were caught in the 2008 crash are spooked that a 2018 bubble will lead to another crash. But that crash was caused by forces that are no longer present. Credit default swaps insured derivatives such as mortgage-backed securities. Hedge fund managers created a huge demand for these supposedly risk-free securities. That created demand for the mortgages that backed them.
Watched CNN and CNBC for first time in years today. Then went over to Fox for a bit.. Very little info on world market crash today.. It is stunning how information is being skewed to the masses. All they were really talking about was Trump and HilLary, and oh yes those brave American terrorist beaters. The depth of denial in our country is breathtaking. I feel like I am living in an alternate reality, the world is crashing around our ears and very few seem to give a rats ass, unbelievable. Went and had two of my rifles bore sighted , zeroing them agian at range tomorrow. Bought 500.00 of emergency food, and ordered a good solar watch I have been looking at.Picking up extra 1000 rounds of Ar, and 250 rounds for my 308. Feel like I have very little time to finish preps. I also ordered a cast iron wood stove and am picking up 4 cords of wood this weekend. I hate feeling this paranoid but damn how can one take a sane look at our world and not be. God bless and protect you all in the coming weeks.
Hey DK. Since your brain is pegged to the 4th dimension. The $30 K I lost was back in 2002 when the dot com blew. I was making $90 K a year. Like spilled beer. Did not affect me. I was trading $20 K blocks at a time day trading. Its called the market maker, making the stock move. These are things you could only dream of. You cant even understand foreign exchange. The Yuan is not pegged to the dollar as you claim. You should stick to simple shit like beans and bullets. Economics is beyond you…
The following day, Black Tuesday, was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The Dow fell 30.57 points to close at 230.07 on that day. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23%.
In 2011 trades by high-frequency traders accounted for 28% of the total volume in the futures markets, which included currencies and commodities, an increase from 22% in 2009. However, the growth of computerized and high-frequency trading in commodities and currencies coincided with a series of "flash crashes" in those markets. The role of human market makers, who match buyers and sellers and provide liquidity to the market, was more and more played by computer programs. If those program traders pulled back from the market, then big "buy" or "sell" orders could have led to sudden, big swings. It would have increased the probability of surprise distortions, as in the equity markets, according to a professional investor. In February 2011, the sugar market took a dive of 6% in just one second. On March 1, 2011, cocoa futures prices dropped 13% in less than a minute on the Intercontinental Exchange. Cocoa plunged $450 to a low of $3,217 a metric ton before rebounding quickly. The U.S. dollar tumbled against the yen on March 16, 2011, falling 5% in minutes, one of its biggest moves ever. According to a former cocoa trader: ' "The electronic platform is too fast; it doesn't slow things down" like humans would. '
Stock up on supplies. Make sure you are prepped. If you’re behind on your preparedness efforts and need to do this quickly, you can order buckets of emergency food just to have some on hand. (Learn how to build an emergency food supply using freeze dried food HERE) Hit the grocery store or wholesale club and stock up there, too, on your way home.
"Maybe it's a calculation that raising the temperature and slapping these tariffs on will play better coming into November, but our view is that's one of the potential headwinds facing the market moving into September," Emanuel said. China is not expected to return to negotiations until after the outcome of the election is clear. "China basically realized ... there's a potential for their negotiating position to improve."
According to data from Equifax in August 2017, deep subprime auto loans -- i.e., loans with an origination VantageScore of 530 or less, on a scale of 300 to 850 -- have hit delinquency rates that hadn’t been seen since 2007. Interestingly enough, when examining the auto market as a whole, no red flags arise in terms of delinquency rates. But if you focus solely on subprime and deep subprime loans, they’ve been deteriorating of late.
The Warren Buffett Indicator is less mysterious than it sounds. It might as well be called the common-sense indicator. It’s simply the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)—or the sum total of a country’s economic activity—and the value of stocks in the S&P 500. So, in simpler terms, the Warren Buffett Indicator in terms of Wall Street measures market capitalization versus U.S. GDP. (Source: “Why Warren Buffett Is Betting Against Warren Buffett,” Seeking Alpha, October 24, 2017.)
Usually, HFT programs and computer trading works without a hitch. But once in a while problems do crop up. Back on Aug. 24, 2015, the United States’ three major stock indexes plunged on the open, but would recover much of their losses by midday. Among the reasons blamed for the dip were market makers and HFT traders. With so many stocks within the S&P 500 failing to open on time, and a number of exchange-traded funds under trading halts, HFTs and other high-speed traders shut down their systems, removing much-needed liquidity from the marketplace and exacerbating the early-day decline.
With IL&FS getting closer to an absolute liquidity crunch and defaulting on its ICDs and CPs, the RBI has started tightening the vigilance on banks and other financial institutions. For starters, the RBI asked banks to be cautious about buying HFC bonds considering their exposure to IL&FS debt. IL&FS has outstanding debt to the tune of $12.5 billion and the market is rife with news that most of the HFCs have large exposure to IL&FS debt. Of course, the promoters of Indiabulls and DHFL have denied any exposure but the news refuses to go away. The mood was also sourced by a large Indian mutual fund selling DHFL bonds in the market at an above-market yield of almost 11%. That also took its toll on the markets.
Finally, don't think you can avoid market crashes by getting out of stocks before one. That's "market timing," and it rarely works. Index-fund pioneer John Bogle has quipped, "Sure, it'd be great to get out of stocks at the high and jump back in at the low... [but] in 55 years in the business, I not only have never met anybody who knew how to do it, I've never met anybody who had met anybody who knew how to do it."
Each of these consoles had its own library of games produced by the console maker, and many had large libraries of games produced by third-party developers. In 1982, analysts noticed trends of saturation, mentioning that the amount of new software coming in will only allow a few big hits, that retailers had too much floor space for systems, along with price drops for home computers could result in an industry shakeup.
While there are risks for local bubbles in markets experiencing inorganic growth, like the Miami condo market for example, it’s wise for investors to focus more on their own investment strategy and less on speculation of the overall market. If able to identify and clearly understand a market and its economy, investors can find success with single-family investments.
The crash followed an asset bubble. Since 1922, the stock market had gone up by almost 20 percent a year. Everyone invested, thanks to a financial invention called buying "on margin." It allowed people to borrow money from their broker to buy stocks. They only needed to put down 10-20 percent. Investing this way contributed to the irrational exuberance of the Roaring Twenties.
The joint 2010 report "portrayed a market so fragmented and fragile that a single large trade could send stocks into a sudden spiral", and detailed how a large mutual fund firm selling an unusually large number of E-Mini S&P contracts first exhausted available buyers, and then how high-frequency traders (HFT) started aggressively selling, accelerating the effect of the mutual fund's selling and contributing to the sharp price declines that day.
But a substantial minority of us have shares. According to a study by the ASX, 31 per cent of Aussies owned shares in 2017. That’s millions of people who watch Alan Kohler do the Finance news each night with a knot in their stomach. Are they a bit more tight-fisted if the finance news is bad? Some will be, especially if they are close to retirement.
Thank you Dan. Congrats on the new member of the family. Yes, so many people are facing the decision to leave the GTA entirely. Might be agonizing at first, but it might be better for your kids. With the Internet, they won’t miss much. What do you think of Calgary? Buy low and and wait for oil to come back? Isn’t that how big fortunes are made? I don’t know of any such lists but perhaps I should make one:). What’s the first place that comes to mind when you think about moving?
The bottom line for macro-investors is that rising rates may slow an already-sluggish economy, which, in turn may depress corporate earnings. Normally that would be a paramount concern, but with corporations swimming in record amounts of cash - with more on the way from the business-friendly GOP tax law - the market's extreme reaction may be overstated.
The Last Days Warrior Summit is the premier online event of 2018 for Christians, Conservatives and Patriots. It is a premium members-only international event that will empower and equip you with the knowledge and tools that you need as global events begin to escalate dramatically. The speaker list includes Michael Snyder, Mike Adams, Dave Daubenmire, Ray Gano, Dr. Daniel Daves, Gary Kah, Justus Knight, Doug Krieger, Lyn Leahz, Laura Maxwell and many more. Full summit access will begin on October 25th, and if you would like to register for this unprecedented event you can do so right here.
Note: The statements and information presented in this post is not intended as professional investment advice. It is solely an exploration of stock investing and the risks, perils, and behavior of stock markets and the economy. No one should rely on a single source of information or a single stock market and investing professional’s advice. The overall message of the post might be to diversify stock, real estate, and cash/gold holdings as a hedge against stock market crashes. Investors should look into hedging strategies but be aware that even hedging may provide limited protection from a crash.
"Dollar dominated the last 24 hours as the rupee collapsed to a fresh all-time low on spot. Policymakers tried everything, monetary intervention, and verbal steroids and even tried to circulate rumours about an "oil window". Nothing worked," said a Kotak Securities report. "The RBI added fuel to fire by denying any attempts to introduce special dollar window for the oil marketing companies." Moreover, rising Italian credit spreads whacked the euro, further pressuring the rupee.
These volumes of trading activity in 2011, to some degree, were regarded as more natural levels than during the financial crisis and its aftermath. Some argued that those lofty levels of trading activity were never an accurate picture of demand among investors. It was a reflection of computer-driven traders passing securities back and forth between day-trading hedge funds. The flash crash exposed this phantom liquidity. In 2011 high-frequency trading firms became increasingly active in markets like futures and currencies, where volatility remains high.
It’s also important to remember that the real value in this strategy is only during times of extreme overvaluation in the stock market. Most of the time “tail hedging” in this way does not add any real benefit and can actually be a major hindrance to overall performance. That said, the stock market currently meets Spitznagel’s uppermost threshold for hedging so, according to both him and Taleb, it’s probably something most investors ought to consider right now.
The difficulty in getting a mortgage combined with extremely high student debt strapping down the millennial generation continues to nudge people toward renting. Americans don’t have the savings they used to have that allowed them to put a down payment on a home. Historically, the average savings rate of a person’s income was 8.3 percent, but today that number is 5.5 percent. Rising education and housing costs continue to burden the new generation of potential home buyers, driving down home ownership rates in the U.S.
But you should also crunch a few numbers and then do a little soul searching. Estimate how Vanguard's suggested mix would have performed during the late 2007-through-early 2009 slump, when stock prices declined nearly 60% in value and investment-grade bonds gained about 7%. If you think you would cave and begin selling in the face of such a loss, you might want to dial back your target stock position a bit.
The North American video game crash had two long-lasting results. The first result was that dominance in the home console market shifted from the United States to Japan. By 1986, three years after its introduction, 6.5 million Japanese homes—19% of the population—owned a Family Computer, and Nintendo began exporting it to the U.S.; by 1987 the Nintendo Entertainment System was very popular in North America. When the U.S. video game market recovered in the late 1980s the NES was by far the dominant console, leaving only a fraction of the market to a resurgent Atari. By 1989, home video game sales in the United States had reached $5 billion, surpassing the 1982 peak of $3 billion during the previous generation. A large majority of the market was controlled by Nintendo; it sold more than 35 million units in the United States, exceeding the sales of other consoles and personal computers by a considerable margin. Other Japanese companies also rivaled Nintendo's success in the United States, with Sega's Mega Drive/Genesis in 1989 and NEC's PC Engine/TurboGrafx 16 released the same year.
On the other hand, tax increases can have the opposite effect. One potential way to fix the Social Security funding problem would be to raise payroll taxes on employees and employers. There are several ways this could happen, but this would mean lower paychecks for workers and higher expenses for employers, and could certainly be a negative catalyst.
Another thing you can do if you're anticipating a market crash is to include a bunch of defensive stocks in your portfolio, as they tend to get less punished during a market downturn. Defensive stocks belong to companies whose fortunes aren't very tied to the economy's movements. For example, people might put off buying refrigerators or cars during a recession, but they'll still buy groceries, socks, soaps, gas, medicine, electricity and diapers. Thus, food, tobacco, energy, and pharmaceuticals are some defensive industries, seen as more stable than their "cyclical" counterparts, such as the homebuilding, steel, automobile, and airline industries. You don't have to avoid cyclical industries in your investing, but know that they can move sharply in relationship to the economy.
If you had reasonably good timing and sold out of the US in 2004-2007, you’d be well ahead by now, but only around now-ish might you be looking to buy back in: ~6-8 years. The bust from Toronto’s 1989 peak came a little quicker, but you still had 5-6 years to sit out — and if you decided to get cozy in your rental and make it an even decade, you only missed the bottom by about 10%.
I find it hard to believe inventory increased by 50 percent, do you have any numbers on that? To see why inventory is low you need to look at the number of sales as well. If we were selling many more homes that would indicate inventory is low because people are buying everything up, but sales are down. That indicates it is not investors buying everything, but there are simply not enough houses for sale. That is what I see in most markets. There are not enough houses for everyone who wants to buy.
No expert prediction or technical indicator is necessary. The makings of the next crash are already clear. Whether it’s Janet Yellen or Jerome Powell who will head the Federal Reserve after February 2018, interest rates can only move higher. At the current rate of debt, even 100 basis points (one percent) higher interest will mean $200.0 billion in additional (not all, mind you, just the extra bit) in debt.
Also, be sure you're focused on percentages, not points, when thinking about stock market movements. This is something the media doesn't sufficiently understand, often reporting market drops in points instead of percentages. As an example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by a whopping 1,175 points in a single day in February 2018, which sure sounds like a lot -- especially compared with 1987's "Black Monday," when the Dow fell 508 points. But in percentage points, it was a meaningful yet not catastrophic 4.6% decline -- while 1987's drop wiped out 22.6% of the market's value at the time. The Dow was near 26,000 at the time of this writing, and the S&P 500 was around 2,800. At those levels, if the Dow "plunges" by 260 points, remember that it would be just a 1% move. Even a 1,000-point drop would be just a 3.85% decline.
Hi Lavanya. Some believe the sky over Toronto will fall in 2018, but with rentals disappearing, it’s safe to say rental income property owners will get their price. Prices won’t go down, and may actually boom if the economy takes off in 2018. Buying a rental income property, living in the upper floor and getting tenants to help with the mortgage is just plain smart. That helps with the housing crisis as well! Good luck with your rental property.
I’m ready, but nervous. IF, this is the big one, and you are wanting this or think you will pop some corn and enjoy the show, then you are unaware of the big picture. Yes it may be enjoyable for a while (I get no joy from this BTW), it WILL effect you in ways you haven’t yet thought of. Yes those of us that are prepared will weather it better than those not prepared, but this isn’t going to be fun in the long run.
"Charlie and I view the marketable common stocks that Berkshire owns as interests in businesses, not as ticker symbols to be bought or sold based on their 'chart' patterns, the 'target' prices of analysts or the opinions of media pundits. Instead, we simply believe that if the businesses of the investees are successful (as we believe most will be) our investments will be successful as well."
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Since February 2013, the broad market has three circuit breakers tied to the performance of the S&P 500 index. If it loses 7%, 13%, or 20% of its value compared to the previous days close, trading halts for a period of time. If anything can be considered a stock market crash, it's hitting these circuit breakers.Remember, Black Monday (October 19, 1987) saw the DJIA lose 22.6% in a single day.
HELL ONFRICKING EARTH AND THE END OF ALL LIFE ON EARTH AS WE KNOW IT IS NOW LITERALLY UP IN OUR FACES, JESUS HELP OUR SORRY ASSES THAT WE are in the 3-5,000,000 shtf survivors. Then comes Planet X, Nibiru showing up in April 2016, tips the poles on the plante 24′, erases the planets magnetic field, meltdown the ice caps and causes 1000 mph fu.///i…g winds trashing up the entire city centers of the all countries of the globe. Flooding, windstorm, hail, Hurricane, sunamis, etc, Crop destruction, anmimals running and migrating to the center of the Country to safe areas, futher depleting animal stocks in coastline cites, leaving the only avaible meat source to eat, fat, larger over women and men who did not prep, now the new food source to sustain the Dred Lock and lantino, ganstar drug dealing survivors.
Ultimately, if there is a going to be a full-blown collapse of the stock market right now, we would need some sort of “kick off event” in order to make that happen. It would have to be something on the scale of another 9/11, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, an unprecedented natural disaster, the start of a major war or something else along those lines.
In this book, published in 2003, Talbott predicted a housing crash that would start around 2005. In fact, the peak of the housing market was the summer of 2005. It took longer for the fall in prices to take down the whole economy. Talbott explained in an easy-to-understand way why it was inevitable that housing prices would fall and crash the economy. The advice over what to do about it wasn't as good as the prediction.
3. They also found, to the surprise of some readers I’m sure, “that some widely cited economic variables displayed an unexpected, counterintuitive correlation with future returns. The ratio of govern- ment debt to GDP is an example: Although its R2makes it seem a better performer than others, the reason is actually opposite to what one would expect—the government debt/GDP ratio has had a positive relationship with the long-term realized return. In other words, higher government debt levels have been associated with higher future stock returns, at least in the United States since 1926″.