Trying to time a market crash or correction is pretty much impossible, and trying to estimate how much will be lost in that crash is even more difficult. If you had listened to David Haggith’s  doom and gloom warnings back in 2012, you would have missed out on one of the greatest bull runs in history. You also have to realise that permabear “experts” such as Marc Faber exist and that they will constantly make predictions about how the next big market crash is just seconds away. To sum it up: Nobody really knows when it’s going to happen or if it’s worth staying on the sidelines while the market continues to grow upwards. Well, everyone except me of course. I’m 100% certain that a market crash is going to happen in 2018.
Housing supply is also an important dynamic to consider when looking at a then-and-now analysis of the housing market. Since mortgages were being given out with little regard to the borrower’s ability to pay back the loan, new home building skyrocketed to meet the new demand. In 2005, new home sales hit a 52 year high with 1.28 million new homes being built. Ten years later, only 500,000 new homes were constructed, dropping 61 percent from the peak ten years prior. An overall lack of inventory continues to be a driver in price appreciation.

The S&P BSE Sensex surged 368 points on Friday, the recovery after 970-point fall in this week earlier, to a day's high of 37,489.24 tracking the strongness in Indian rupee value against US dollar, lower crude oil prices, government's directive to oil marketers to book future prices of crude oil and positive Asian cues. Shares of ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ITC, Axis Bank, HDFC and SBI were the biggest positive point contributors to the benchmark index, as these stocks collectively added about 350 points. 
At first, while the regulatory agencies and the United States Congress announced investigations into the crash,[16] no specific reason for the six hundred point plunge was identified. Investigators focused on a number of possible causes, including a confluence of computer-automated trades, or possibly an error by human traders. By the first weekend, regulators had discounted the possibility of trader error and focused on automated trades conducted on exchanges other than the NYSE. However, CME Group, a large futures exchange, stated that, insofar as stock index futures traded on CME Group were concerned, its investigation found no evidence for this or that high-frequency trading played a role, and in fact concluded that automated trading had contributed to market stability during the period of the crash.[17] Others speculate that an intermarket sweep order may have played a role in triggering the crash.[18]
So, the way to prepare for a market crash is not necessarily to artfully predict in advance, and step aside when the crash comes. That's virtually impossible. Rather, it can be useful to consider your overall investment strategy ahead of time, so that you know you could stomach the next inevitable crash when it comes. Ideally, through proper diversification and forethought you'll have an investment approach that will enable you to ride out a crash, rather than turning you into another panicked seller. If you only act on these issues when the crash comes, it will likely be too late.
In my previous article entitled “Why Are So Many People Talking About The Potential For A Stock Market Crash In October?”, I noted that this has been the month with the most market volatility ever since the Dow was first established.  Absent some kind of major event, the stock market usually gets kind of sleepy around Thanksgiving and does not really spring to life again until after the new year has begun.
The last week of January 2018 and the first week of February 2018, the Dow Jones dropped several hundred points. It looks to close out February 2 down hundreds of points, with other indexes (S&P 500, NASDAQ) to follow. While this may seem like a crisis, it is more than likely to reflect short-term investors taking their profits (in the long run up to this point) and shuffling them to other types of investments to prepare for improved bond yields.
In the US, news on the trade dispute with China will remain a focus. Beyond that, the focus will be the US Federal Reserve (Fed) (Wednesday) which is expected to raise interest rates for the eighth time for this cycle taking the Fed Funds rate range to 2-2.25% and signal that more gradual rate hikes are likely. Markets have already fully factored this in, so the interest will be on the Fed’s commentary about the outlook and its “dot plot” of future rate hikes. While the Fed may remove its description of policy as being “accommodative” its economic commentary is likely to be upbeat and the dot plot is likely to remain consistent with more gradual rate hikes, ultimately taking the Fed Funds rate above the Fed’s currently assessed long run “neutral rate” of around 2.75-3%. This will likely mean more rate hikes over the next two years than the three and a half the market is currently allowing for. On the data front in the US, expect ongoing home price gains and another strong consumer confidence reading (both Tuesday), slight gains in new home sales (Wednesday) and pending home sales (Thursday), ongoing strength in durable goods orders (also Thursday) continued strength in consumer spending but a fall back in core private consumption deflator inflation to 1.9% year-on-year for August (Friday).
However, there are a few qualifications to this: there is some risk that the migrant intake may be cut; while accelerating population growth in Queensland will support Brisbane property prices, population growth is slowing in NSW and Victoria so it’s becoming a bit less supportive of property prices in those states; and the supply of new dwellings has been catching up to strong population growth so undersupply is giving way to oversupply in some areas. The risk of the latter is highlighted by the continuing very high residential crane count which is still dominated by Sydney and Melbourne, indicating that there is still of lot of supply to hit the market ahead. Out of interest, Australia’s total residential crane count alone of 528 cranes is way above the total crane count (ie residential and non-residential) in the US of 300 and Canada of 123!
You are obviously a banker of some sort. The bankers and the bank owners are fucking greedy bastards. PERIOD. Look at the situation. They make billions but cant provide benefits. It is the obligation of owners and investors to provide for workers. Its is supposed to work that way. But they and you KEEP it all and give the people swill. You al suck and have been compared to serial killers on a psychological level.. Stop defending the indefensible! you bought the bailout in 08 and the took bonuses for causing it. You put people and kids in th street then went sailing. So fuck you and your bastard cronies!!!!!
Now the stock market needed to be revived. And hence lots of fresh reforms were started to stabilize the market once again. As already mentioned one supposed reason for the stock market crash of 2000 was the advent of the internet and online trading in such a huge number. To see that just about anyone doesn’t jump into stock trading a rule was formed for these Daytraders. Going by these rules, an individual had to have a minimum of $25000 to their name in any bank account. That would ensure that the person is not insolvent. Other than this very basic rule, lots of other rules were laid which could restrict the previous marketing methods which led to losses.
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You are obviously a banker of some sort. The bankers and the bank owners are fucking greedy bastards. PERIOD. Look at the situation. They make billions but cant provide benefits. It is the obligation of owners and investors to provide for workers. Its is supposed to work that way. But they and you KEEP it all and give the people swill. You al suck and have been compared to serial killers on a psychological level.. Stop defending the indefensible! you bought the bailout in 08 and the took bonuses for causing it. You put people and kids in th street then went sailing. So fuck you and your bastard cronies!!!!!
One of the more predominant effects of the 1983 crash was on Atari. In 1982, it had published large volumes of Atari 2600 games that they had expected to sell well, including a port of Pac-Man and game adaption of the film E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial. However, due to the quality of these games and other market factors, much of Atari's production did not get sold. In September 1983, Atari discreetly buried much of this excess stock, as well as unsold stock of earlier games, in a landfill near Alamogordo, New Mexico, though Atari did not comment about their activity at the time. Misinformation related to sales of Pac-Man and E.T. led to an urban legend of the Atari video game burial that millions of unsold cartridges were buried there. Gaming historians received permission to dig up the landfill as part of a documentary in 2014, during which former Atari executives clarified that only about 700,000 cartridges had been buried in 1982, backed by estimates made during the excavation, and disproving the scale of the urban legend. Despite this, Atari's burial remains an iconic representation of the 1983 video game crash.[32][33][34]
The S&P BSE Sensex surged 368 points on Friday, the recovery after 970-point fall in this week earlier, to a day's high of 37,489.24 tracking the strongness in Indian rupee value against US dollar, lower crude oil prices, government's directive to oil marketers to book future prices of crude oil and positive Asian cues. Shares of ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ITC, Axis Bank, HDFC and SBI were the biggest positive point contributors to the benchmark index, as these stocks collectively added about 350 points. 
The major factors that drive housing demand growth to Toronto: immigrant investors, better economy, low interest rates, increasing numbers of buyers in their home home buying years (millennials), and optimism all look on the upswing.  As mentioned in the Los Angeles Real Estate and US housing crash post, orecast post, here are the key factors that affect home prices:
Buffett is being optimistic. In fact, if history can offer any lessons, note that the Dow Jones 100 years ago, in 1917, stood at 1,328 points. That would be less than 20 times the current number. But Buffett probably doesn’t have to worry too much about the events that may or may not occur in the 22nd century. Now, as far as the present is concerned, you can be sure that Buffett chooses his words and predictions more carefully, as it were.
Homeowners are not taking as much equity out of their homes. Home equity rose to $85 billion in 2006. It collapsed to less than $10 billion in 2010. It remained there until 2015. By 2017, it had only risen to $14 billion. Obamacare is one reason for that. Bankruptcy filings have fallen 50 percent since the ACA was passed. In 2010, 1.5 million people filed. In 2016, only 770,846 did. 
While the A$ is working off very negative short positions and oversold conditions resulting in another short-term bounce, it’s still likely to fall to around US$0.70 and maybe into the high US$0.60s as the gap between the RBA’s cash rate and the US Fed Funds rate pushes further into negative territory because the US economy is booming relative to Australia. Being short the A$ remains a good hedge against things going wrong in the global economy.
Nintendo reserved a large part of NES game revenue for itself by limiting most third-party publishers to only five games per year on its systems (some companies tried to get around this by creating additional company labels like Konami's Ultra Games label); Nintendo would ultimately drop this rule by 1993 with the release of the Super Nintendo Entertainment System.[50] It also required all cartridges to be manufactured by Nintendo, and to be paid for in full before they were manufactured. Cartridges could not be returned to Nintendo, so publishers assumed all the financial risk of selling all units ordered. As a result, some publishers lost more money due to distress sales of remaining inventory at the end of the NES era than they ever earned in profits from sales of the games.

Jump up ^ Lambert, Richard (July 19, 2008). "Crashes, Bangs & Wallops". Financial Times. Retrieved September 30, 2008. At the turn of the 20th century stock market speculation was restricted to professionals, but the 1920s saw millions of 'ordinary Americans' investing in the New York Stock Exchange. By August 1929, brokers had lent small investors more than two-thirds of the face value of the stocks they were buying on margin – more than $8.5bn was out on loan.
Dennis Cisterna III was kind enough to provide this article that discusses the key factors that drive the housing market. Dennis is Chief Revenue Officer of Investability Real Estate, Inc. and an expert on housing trends and economic indicators. I chose Dennis to write this piece because I was so impressed with his podcast interview on my show. Dennis talks about the actual numbers when it comes to new house builds, lending guidelines, and if we are in fact due for another housing crash anytime soon. I also did a lot of research on my own about lending guidelines, affordability, building starts, and other issues affecting the housing market.
The portfolio I am testing in this study purchases 2-month 0.5 delta puts on the S&P 500 Composite Index (approximately 30 percent out of the money, in the case of a 40 percent implied volatility) at the start of each strategy period at an assumed 40 percent volatility level…. After every month, the 2-month put options position is rolled (the existing options are sold and new 2-month puts are purchased, which resets the position every month)… Each month the portfolio spends one half of one percent on puts, and the remaining 99.5 percent stays invested in the S&P index.

Some of these motivations come from people all following each other, trying to predict the exact economic actions of other people all engaged in the same activity. (People who bought a stock at too high a price are looking for greater fools to unload it on.) While the market's open, everyone's trying to figure out the optimal value for the price of every stock everywhere. It's exhausting to think about the trillion or so variables that go into that immense labor of capitalism. It's crazy to consider how complicated the chains of cause and effect and overthinking are.

On September 20, the London Stock Exchange crashed when top British investor Clarence Hatry and many of his associates were jailed for fraud and forgery.[8] The London crash greatly weakened the optimism of American investment in markets overseas.[8] In the days leading up to the crash, the market was severely unstable. Periods of selling and high volumes were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery.

Other scientists disagree with this notion, and note that market crashes are indeed “special.” Professor Didier Sornette, for example, a physicist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, argued that a market crash is not simply a scaled-up version of a normal down day but a true outlier to market behavior. In fact, he claims that ahead of critical points the market starts giving off some clues. His work focuses on interpreting these clues and identify when a bubble may be forming and, crucially, when it ends.
If you could only listen to one person's advice during a stock market crash, let that person be famed investor, Warren Buffett. Not only will the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) (NYSE: BRK-A) chairman and CEO's advice serve you well, but his knack for keeping a clear head -- and even getting a bit greedy (more on that later) -- when everyone else is selling, may make his the only advice you need to navigate uncertain times.
On Black Monday, the markets were a bit different than today. That’s the explanation that many market optimists like to offer when they explain why another Black Monday can’t happen. That is, the market cannot lose some 23% of its value in a single trading session. They might be right, but in the opposite direction. The markets now have human as well as computer input through so-called robot trading. They have more variables and are more complicated. But information and risks travel much faster. If anything, the risks of a major market crash are higher today.
Hi Christine, I can’t offer advice. There is a lot of risk in 2020. Trudeau may botch the trade negotiations and that could could start a Toronto slide. Without the auto sector, Whitby and Oshawa could get hit hard. Good thing is Trudeau could be gone next year and the Americans might listen to a new conservative government. Harper’s already visited the back door at the white house. From here to 2020 could be rough in Canada. Good luck with your sale.

The loopholes in the accounts of the companies are believed to be a major reason for the crash. The companies weren’t honest about their dealings in the company accounts and hid debts which affected the market. Therefore the rule of CEO and CFO accountability was laid. Under these regulations, all the statements needed to be duly signed by the CEOs or CFOs of the respective companies. That way frauds and loopholes could easily be made out. Also, the prosecution was made stricter. The penalties that would result from frauds or any illegal activity in trading were increased. This was meant to control the losses that the market was suffering.
Finally, don't think you can avoid market crashes by getting out of stocks before one. That's "market timing," and it rarely works. Index-fund pioneer John Bogle has quipped, "Sure, it'd be great to get out of stocks at the high and jump back in at the low... [but] in 55 years in the business, I not only have never met anybody who knew how to do it, I've never met anybody who had met anybody who knew how to do it."
Greed and only greed caused the crashes. Investing is the attempt to make a financial killing, in other words, bigger profits and less work. Why else would anyone with their head on straignt want to make a profit on the backs of others? Thousands of years ago it was determined by one nation that debts should be forgiven every 7 years. Lending money with large interest rates was unfair. It’s in Egyptian and Abrahamic history. But GAMBLERS saw the same things as unconcerned individuals see today. Morality be dammed and me first.

Fourth, other US policies will continue to add stagflationary pressure, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates higher still. The administration is restricting inward/outward investment and technology transfers, which will disrupt supply chains. It is restricting the immigrants who are needed to maintain growth as the US population ages. It is discouraging investments in the green economy. And it has no infrastructure policy to address supply-side bottlenecks.
While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.
I’m a first time buyer and i’m exploring to purchase a condo in downtown Toronto. A one decent 550sqft condo sells for about 450k (which i find absurd). Would you advise waiting till mid 2018, with the new stress test rules, in hopes that the prices will decrease? I can’t justify paying so much, but at the same time the prices seem to be going up every month.
Efforts to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement have proved more problematic than many in markets had hoped. Instead of ending Friday, talks with Canada will continue with expectations a deal could be reached within 90 days. Talks with Mexico had proceeded but the U.S. and Canada, as of Friday, appeared to have reached a sticking point.

In the recent statement, the head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors pointed out two major types of crypto players — those who are “using it and have wallets in crypto,” and those who belong to a speculative side of the market. According to Lee, those two sides of the crypto community should find a way for “sort of interacting with each other” for crypto investors not to get burnt by crashes like this.

I’m a first time buyer and i’m exploring to purchase a condo in downtown Toronto. A one decent 550sqft condo sells for about 450k (which i find absurd). Would you advise waiting till mid 2018, with the new stress test rules, in hopes that the prices will decrease? I can’t justify paying so much, but at the same time the prices seem to be going up every month.


The US Fed meets on September 26th but the CME Fed tool is already indicating a probability of 95% for a rate hike by the Fed. That is not good news for the Indian markets. It will impel the RBI to front end another rate hike to prevent any risk of capital market outflows. Also higher Fed rates will lead to a stronger dollar and that by itself will put pressure on the INR, which is already vulnerable at this point of time.
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Large directional bets: Regulators say a large E-Mini S&P 500 seller set off a chain of events triggering the Flash Crash, but did not identify the firm.[23][24][25][26] Earlier, some investigators suggested that a large purchase of put options on the S&P 500 index by the hedge fund Universa Investments shortly before the crash may have been among the primary causes.[33][34] Other reports have speculated that the event may have been triggered by a single sale of 75,000 E-Mini S&P 500 contracts valued at around $4 billion by the Overland Park, Kansas firm Waddell & Reed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.[35] Others suspect a movement in the U.S. Dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate.[36]
But a substantial minority of us have shares. According to a study by the ASX, 31 per cent of Aussies owned shares in 2017. That’s millions of people who watch Alan Kohler do the Finance news each night with a knot in their stomach. Are they a bit more tight-fisted if the finance news is bad? Some will be, especially if they are close to retirement.

Canada, along with Australia, stands out both for its sky-high housing prices and its gargantuan household debt levels. Home prices have grown by 24 per cent since 1999, compared to 18 per cent in Australia, 13 per cent in the U.S. and 12 per cent in the U.K. The amount that Canadian families owe, meanwhile, is as big as this country’s GDP, a level surpassed only in Australia, where household debt is now larger the size of the economy.
The Wall Street Crash had a major impact on the U.S. and world economy, and it has been the source of intense academic debate—historical, economic, and political—from its aftermath until the present day. Some people believed that abuses by utility holding companies contributed to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Depression that followed.[33] Many people blamed the crash on commercial banks that were too eager to put deposits at risk on the stock market.[34]
In March 2017, William Poole, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, warned of another subprime crisis. He warned that 35 percent of Fannie Mae's loans required mortgage insurance. That's about the level in 2006. In some ways, these loans are worse. Fannie and Freddie lowered their definition of subprime from 660 to 620. The banks are no longer calling borrowers with scores between 620 and 660 subprime. Poole was the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas who warned of the subprime crisis in 2005.

Good harvests had built up a mass of 250 million bushels of wheat to be "carried over" when 1929 opened. By May there was also a winter-wheat crop of 560 million bushels ready for harvest in the Mississippi Valley. This oversupply caused a drop in wheat prices so heavy that the net incomes of the farming population from wheat were threatened with extinction. Stock markets are always sensitive to the future state of commodity markets, and the slump in Wall Street predicted for May by Sir George Paish arrived on time. In June 1929, the position was saved by a severe drought in the Dakotas and the Canadian West, plus unfavorable seed times in Argentina and eastern Australia. The oversupply would now be wanted to fill the big gaps in the 1929 world wheat production. From 97¢ per bushel in May, the price of wheat rose to $1.49 in July. When it was seen that at this figure American farmers would get rather more for their smaller crop than for that of 1928, stocks went up again.
As a Young Family (married with one child) home buyer, we made a loss when we sold out to move to the Toronto area and currently rent. Our landlord is selling up a the Townhouses in our area have grown from $280,000 10 years ago to one just selling a few days ago for $630,000. Last month they were selling for $450,000. We now have no option but to continue renting and are now looking at the city for a Rental Condo (which is now cheaper than the 3 hour daily �suburb commute) . We didn’t even have the money to buy when it was worth $280,000. Our house hold income is around $80,000 a year. The reality is, the average Canadian has a debt load at a level even higher than the unsustainable US pre 2008 crash.
On August 24, 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at a value of 63.9. By September 3, 1929, it had risen more than sixfold, touching 381.2. It would not regain this level for another 25 years. By the summer of 1929, it was clear that the economy was contracting, and the stock market went through a series of unsettling price declines. These declines fed investor anxiety, and events came to a head on October 24, 28, and 29 (known respectively as Black Thursday, Black Monday, and Black Tuesday).

Thank you Dan. Congrats on the new member of the family. Yes, so many people are facing the decision to leave the GTA entirely. Might be agonizing at first, but it might be better for your kids. With the Internet, they won’t miss much. What do you think of Calgary? Buy low and and wait for oil to come back? Isn’t that how big fortunes are made? I don’t know of any such lists but perhaps I should make one:). What’s the first place that comes to mind when you think about moving?
Stock market downturn of 2002 9 Oct 2002 Downturn in stock prices during 2002 in stock exchanges across the United States, Canada, Asia, and Europe. After recovering from lows reached following the September 11 attacks, indices slid steadily starting in March 2002, with dramatic declines in July and September leading to lows last reached in 1997 and 1998. See stock market downturn of 2002.
Officials announced that new trading curbs, also known as circuit breakers, would be tested during a six-month trial period ending on December 10, 2010. These circuit breakers would halt trading for five minutes on any S&P 500 stock that rises or falls more than 10 percent in a five-minute period.[76][77] The circuit breakers would only be installed to the 404 New York Stock Exchange listed S&P 500 stocks. The first circuit breakers were installed to only 5 of the S&P 500 companies on Friday, June 11, to experiment with the circuit breakers. The five stocks were EOG Resources, Genuine Parts, Harley Davidson, Ryder System and Zimmer Holdings. By Monday, June 14, 44 had them. By Tuesday, June 15, the number had grown to 223, and by Wednesday, June 16, all 404 companies had circuit breakers installed.[78] On June 16, 2010, trading in the Washington Post Company's shares were halted for five minutes after it became the first stock to trigger the new circuit breakers. Three erroneous NYSE Arca trades were said to have been the cause of the share price jump.[79]
The release of so many new games in 1982 flooded the market. Most stores had insufficient space to carry new games and consoles. As stores tried to return the surplus games to the new publishers, the publishers had neither new products nor cash to issue refunds to the retailers. Many publishers, including Games by Apollo and US Games, quickly folded.[citation needed] Unable to return the unsold games to defunct publishers, stores marked down the titles and placed them in discount bins and sale tables. Recently released games which initially sold for US $35 (equivalent to $92 in 2018) were in bins for $5 ($13 in 2018).[30][31] Crane said that "those awful games flooded the market at huge discounts, and ruined the video game business".[27] By June 1983, the market for the more expensive games had shrunk dramatically and was replaced by a new market of rushed-to-market, low-budget games.
Hi Christine, I can’t offer advice. There is a lot of risk in 2020. Trudeau may botch the trade negotiations and that could could start a Toronto slide. Without the auto sector, Whitby and Oshawa could get hit hard. Good thing is Trudeau could be gone next year and the Americans might listen to a new conservative government. Harper’s already visited the back door at the white house. From here to 2020 could be rough in Canada. Good luck with your sale.
Even better than not selling stocks during a recession is to actually go on the offense. In bull markets, investors can occasionally find reasonably priced, wonderful businesses. But they can rarely find wonderful businesses trading at a significant discount to their fair value. Stock market crashes are the rare times when high-quality businesses can be found in the clearance aisle. Go shopping!
One disconcerting aspect is that large avalanches, epic earthquakes or giant forest fires do not seem to be very special: They appear to be just less frequent, scaled-up versions of small ones. If this is true, then a stock market crash may not be special at all, but merely a larger-than-usual down day, and just as unpredictable. This would present a big challenge to traditional investment methods.
The Warren Buffett Indicator is less mysterious than it sounds. It might as well be called the common-sense indicator. It’s simply the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)—or the sum total of a country’s economic activity—and the value of stocks in the S&P 500. So, in simpler terms, the Warren Buffett Indicator in terms of Wall Street measures market capitalization versus U.S. GDP. (Source: “Why Warren Buffett Is Betting Against Warren Buffett,” Seeking Alpha, October 24, 2017.)
After Black Monday, regulators overhauled trade-clearing protocols to bring uniformity to all prominent market products. They also developed new rules, known as "trading curbs" or colloquially as circuit breakers, allowing exchanges to temporarily halt trading in instances of exceptionally large price declines in some indexes; for instance, the DJIA.[15]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

But Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, lists a number of global disputes coming to a head this fall, including tariffs on imports from China, the potential for auto tariffs on other countries, Iran oil sanctions kicking in, Congress facing another budget deadline and the election in November. "The risk calendar gets quite big this fall," he said. "September is part of it, but it's really the whole fall period."


The Warren Buffett Indicator is less mysterious than it sounds. It might as well be called the common-sense indicator. It’s simply the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)—or the sum total of a country’s economic activity—and the value of stocks in the S&P 500. So, in simpler terms, the Warren Buffett Indicator in terms of Wall Street measures market capitalization versus U.S. GDP. (Source: “Why Warren Buffett Is Betting Against Warren Buffett,” Seeking Alpha, October 24, 2017.)
Stock market crashes are social phenomena where external economic events combine with crowd behavior and psychology in a positive feedback loop where selling by some market participants drives more market participants to sell. Generally speaking, crashes usually occur under the following conditions:[1] a prolonged period of rising stock prices and excessive economic optimism, a market where P/E ratios (Price-Earning ratio) exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants. Other aspects such as wars, large-corporation hacks, changes in federal laws and regulations, and natural disasters of highly economically productive areas may also influence a significant decline in the NYSE value of a wide range of stocks. All such stock drops may result in the rise of stock prices for corporations competing against the affected corporations.

If you had reasonably good timing and sold out of the US in 2004-2007, you’d be well ahead by now, but only around now-ish might you be looking to buy back in: ~6-8 years. The bust from Toronto’s 1989 peak came a little quicker, but you still had 5-6 years to sit out — and if you decided to get cozy in your rental and make it an even decade, you only missed the bottom by about 10%.
Unemployment is near record lows. Corporations are bringing money from offshore accounts back into the U.S. Technology is driving thousands of new innovations. Of course, none of these conditions for prosperity will last forever, and there's certainly pockets of the U.S. still experiencing job loss and poverty. I loath being a cheerleader for stocks or the economy, but it's not as bad as it seems.
But Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, lists a number of global disputes coming to a head this fall, including tariffs on imports from China, the potential for auto tariffs on other countries, Iran oil sanctions kicking in, Congress facing another budget deadline and the election in November. "The risk calendar gets quite big this fall," he said. "September is part of it, but it's really the whole fall period."
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Ninth, Trump was already attacking the Fed when the growth rate was recently 4%. Just think about how he will behave in the 2020 election year, when growth likely will have fallen below 1% and job losses emerge. The temptation for Trump to “wag the dog” by manufacturing a foreign-policy crisis will be high, especially if the Democrats retake the House of Representatives this year.
Eh... Who cares?! I'll pay... a 49 + 1/4 bid for 50,000 Procter, if I were at my hedge fund. I mean, this is ridi... this is a good opportunity. When I walked down here it was at 61—when I walked down here it was at 61, I'm not that interested in it. It's at 47, well that's a different security entirely, so what you have to do, though, you have to use limit orders, because Procter just jumped seven points because I said I liked it at 49.
If you doubt that, go back to the last major slump, the near 60% decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 index from early October, 2007 to early March, 2009. It's easy to see with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight that it would have been smart to get out of the market the first week of October. But that was hardly obvious in real time. In fact, after dropping by almost 20% from October to early March 2008, stocks rallied for a 12% gain into the middle of May. We know now that this was just a brief respite from what would turn out to be a gut-wrenching bear market. But for all investors knew at the time, that 12% rebound could have signaled the end of the selloff and a resumption of the market's advance.
The share price of DHFL plunged as much as 60 percent to hit a fresh 52-week low of Rs 246.25 amid high volumes before paring losses to end down 43 percent. Yes Bank slumped as much as 34 percent before recovering to close down 29 percent. Stocks of Indiabulls Housing Finance and LIC Housing Finance were also down by over 20 percent and 15 percent, respectively, at one point. Shares of Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv too took a hit.
The mathematical description of stock market movements has been a subject of intense interest. The conventional assumption has been that stock markets behave according to a random log-normal distribution.[9] Among others, mathematician Benoît Mandelbrot suggested as early as 1963 that the statistics prove this assumption incorrect.[10] Mandelbrot observed that large movements in prices (i.e. crashes) are much more common than would be predicted from a log-normal distribution. Mandelbrot and others suggested that the nature of market moves is generally much better explained using non-linear analysis and concepts of chaos theory.[11] This has been expressed in non-mathematical terms by George Soros in his discussions of what he calls reflexivity of markets and their non-linear movement.[12] George Soros said in late October 1987, 'Mr. Robert Prechter's reversal proved to be the crack that started the avalanche'.[13][14]
Stock valuations aren’t extended and can support higher bond yields (the spread between the forward earnings yields and 10-Year Treasury yield is roughly 300 basis points, far above its long-term average). GDP growth is below trend, and every recession since 1970 has been preceded by above-trend GDP growth (GDP has followed a nice trend since World War II, and we are well below that trend currently due to a slow recovery from a big 2008 wipe-out). Debt levels remain reasonable and in line with long-term averages (net corporate debt to GDP is well off record highs, and simply in line with its long-term average).
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