In April 2015, Navinder Singh Sarao, a London-based point-and-click trader, was arrested for his alleged role in the flash crash. According to criminal charges brought by the United States Department of Justice, Sarao allegedly used an automated program to generate large sell orders, pushing down prices, which he then cancelled to buy at the lower market prices. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed civil charges against Sarao. In August 2015, Sarao was released on a £50,000 bail with a full extradition hearing scheduled for September with the US Department of Justice. Sarao and his company, Nav Sarao Futures Limited, allegedly made more than $40 million in profit from trading during the Flash Crash.
You have to pay ~2.5-4% in unavoidable ownership fees as an owner even with your mortgage paid off (property taxes, insurance, maintenance, amortized transaction costs, etc). Even if we’re generous and assume that’s just 2.5%, that means all that that equity is only making you 2.5% (1.5% in Vancouver) in rent savings. If you don’t have the equity, you have to pay more than than to borrow it from the bank (or take on the risk of paying more). If you do and you invest it, then that can be substantial savings.
Nintendo reserved a large part of NES game revenue for itself by limiting most third-party publishers to only five games per year on its systems (some companies tried to get around this by creating additional company labels like Konami's Ultra Games label); Nintendo would ultimately drop this rule by 1993 with the release of the Super Nintendo Entertainment System. It also required all cartridges to be manufactured by Nintendo, and to be paid for in full before they were manufactured. Cartridges could not be returned to Nintendo, so publishers assumed all the financial risk of selling all units ordered. As a result, some publishers lost more money due to distress sales of remaining inventory at the end of the NES era than they ever earned in profits from sales of the games.
While the A$ is working off very negative short positions and oversold conditions resulting in another short-term bounce, it’s still likely to fall to around US$0.70 and maybe into the high US$0.60s as the gap between the RBA’s cash rate and the US Fed Funds rate pushes further into negative territory because the US economy is booming relative to Australia. Being short the A$ remains a good hedge against things going wrong in the global economy.
On August 24, 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at a value of 63.9. By September 3, 1929, it had risen more than sixfold, touching 381.2. It would not regain this level for another 25 years. By the summer of 1929, it was clear that the economy was contracting, and the stock market went through a series of unsettling price declines. These declines fed investor anxiety, and events came to a head on October 24, 28, and 29 (known respectively as Black Thursday, Black Monday, and Black Tuesday).
Stock valuations aren’t extended and can support higher bond yields (the spread between the forward earnings yields and 10-Year Treasury yield is roughly 300 basis points, far above its long-term average). GDP growth is below trend, and every recession since 1970 has been preceded by above-trend GDP growth (GDP has followed a nice trend since World War II, and we are well below that trend currently due to a slow recovery from a big 2008 wipe-out). Debt levels remain reasonable and in line with long-term averages (net corporate debt to GDP is well off record highs, and simply in line with its long-term average).
The 10-year Treasury note – whose key rate impacts the pricing on things ranging from fixed-rate mortgages to stocks to virtually every financial asset on the planet – recently climbed above 3.25 percent for the first time since May 2011. And when you add the threat of higher borrowing costs on things such as houses and cars and corporate debt to the economic obstacles caused by the U.S. trade war with China, all it takes is a whiff of weakness to set a major sell-off in motion.
The next day, "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, about 16 million shares traded as the panic selling reached its peak. Some stocks actually had no buyers at any price that day ("air pockets"). The Dow lost an additional 30 points, or 12 percent. The volume of stocks traded on October 29, 1929, was a record that was not broken for nearly 40 years.
In 2011 high-frequency traders moved away from the stock market as there had been lower volatility and volume. The combined average daily trading volume in the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market in the first four months of 2011 fell 15% from 2010, to an average of 6.3 billion shares a day. Trading activities declined throughout 2011, with April's daily average of 5.8 billion shares marking the lowest month since May 2008. Sharp movements in stock prices, which were frequent during the period from 2008 to the first half of 2010, were in a decline in the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, the VIX, which fell to its lowest level in April 2011 since July 2007.
Sixth, Europe, too, will experience slower growth, owing to monetary-policy tightening and trade frictions. Moreover, populist policies in countries such as Italy may lead to an unsustainable debt dynamic within the eurozone. The still-unresolved “doom loop” between governments and banks holding public debt will amplify the existential problems of an incomplete monetary union with inadequate risk-sharing. Under these conditions, another global downturn could prompt Italy and other countries to exit the eurozone altogether.
Marc, I hope you and your kids can stay in So Cal, but can you see how the money and people are being vilified for wanting to be part of California’s successful economy and lifestyle. The real villains are those who are preventing development. And that new development really drives the economy, thus giving California a chance to compete in the global age. Other cities in Canada and the UK have the same problem and in each case it’s politicians squeezing supply. And the actions they’re taking does point to a recession eventually. If California’s polticians remove constraints, you’ll have lower prices in San Diego, LA and the SF Bay Area. The market alway solves itself.
Whether Professor Sornette is right or not that a critical point can be anticipated, the entire concept of market self-organization deals a blow to the “fundamental” approach to investing in equity markets – the idea that opinion-based research can lead to investment success when it seems quite apparent that outcomes cannot be predicted even when initial conditions are known.
DSP Mutual Fund sold Dewan Housing bonds this week to boost its cash holdings before an expected tightening of market liquidity in September, Kalpen Parekh, president of DSP, said in an interview. The firm sold 3 billion rupees ($41.6 million) of the bonds to express “our interest view, not a credit view,” Parekh said. “This has been done across issuers over last few days.”
“My sense is that the bottom that we were unable to find, chances are that we have found it. Often things tend to panic and sell of, unless it’s a black swan event My sense is that whatever information is there is not so serious; may be a couple of stocks may remain dicey but overall if there is no systemic risk, what we are doing is we are buying back nifty now; because it’s not like the whole world is coming to an end May be there is a problem; it can be contained; but once the news is out that news is irrelevant. Given that we are now near the 200-DMA, we could now have that sustainable rally. There is no value in worrying about what’s gone wrong. Try to buy because prices tend to factor in most things. My sense is that by the close we should recover some more Buy the good quality NBFCs, such as Bajaj Finance, L&T finance I would be a buyer now that the fall is already over,” investment advisor Ashwini Gujral told CNBC TV18.
Prices began to decline in September and early October, but speculation continued, fueled in many cases by individuals who had borrowed money to buy shares—a practice that could be sustained only as long as stock prices continued rising. On October 18 the market went into a free fall, and the wild rush to buy stocks gave way to an equally wild rush to sell. The first day of real panic, October 24, is known as Black Thursday; on that day a record 12.9 million shares were traded as investors rushed to salvage their losses. Still, the Dow average closed down only six points after a number of major banks and investment companies bought up great blocks of stock in a successful effort to stem the panic that day. Their attempts, however, ultimately failed to shore up the market.
It looks like it could be another tough week for global financial markets. As the week began, markets were down all over the world, and relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia have taken a sudden turn for the worse. That could potentially mean much, much higher oil prices, and needless to say that would be a very bad thing for the U.S. economy. It has really surprised many of us how dramatically events have begun to accelerate here in the month of October, and the mood on Wall Street has taken a decidedly negative turn. Yes, U.S. stocks did bounce back a bit on Friday (as I correctly anticipated), but it was much less of a bounce than many investors were hoping for. And this week got off to a rough start with all of the major markets in Asia down significantly…
"Dollar dominated the last 24 hours as the rupee collapsed to a fresh all-time low on spot. Policymakers tried everything, monetary intervention, and verbal steroids and even tried to circulate rumours about an "oil window". Nothing worked," said a Kotak Securities report. "The RBI added fuel to fire by denying any attempts to introduce special dollar window for the oil marketing companies." Moreover, rising Italian credit spreads whacked the euro, further pressuring the rupee.
“Hedging” simply means protecting your portfolio from just this sort of “fat tail” event. Taleb is an advisor to a hedge fund which specializes in “tail hedging.” The fund is run by Mark Spitznagel who wrote a book a few years ago called “The Dao of Capital” in which he argues there are times when stocks present very poor potential returns along with very high risk. His preferred gauge for this is Tobin’s Q (see: Why ‘Tobin’s Q’ Should Make You More Cautious Towards The Stock Market Today).
The bigger they come, the harder they fall. Currently, we are in the terminal phase of an “everything bubble” which has had ten years to grow. It is the biggest financial bubble that our country has ever seen, and experts are warning that when it finally bursts we will experience an economic downturn that is even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Of course many of us in the alternative media have been warning about what is coming for quite some time, but now even many in the mainstream media have jumped on the bandwagon. The Economist is one of the most prominent globalist mouthpieces in the entire world, and so I was stunned when I came across one of their articles earlier today that was entitled “Another economic downturn is just a matter of time”. When the alternative media and globalist media outlets are both preaching economic doom, that is a very clear sign that big trouble is imminent.
We haven’t had an October like this in a very long time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down another 327 points on Thursday, and overall the Dow is now down close to 1,500 points from the peak of the market. Unlike much of the rest of the world, it is still too early to say that the U.S. is facing a new “financial crisis”, but if stocks continue to plunge like this one won’t be too far away. And as you will see below, many believe that what we have seen so far is just the start of a huge wave of selling. Of course it would be extremely convenient for Democrats if stocks did crash, because it would give them a much better chance of doing well in the midterm elections. This is the most heated midterm election season that I can ever remember, and what U.S. voters choose to do at the polls in November is going to have very serious implications for the immediate future of our country.
Maybe Coca-Cola announced record earnings. Maybe it's the middle of the month, and your 401(k) contribution has just come out of your paycheck, so you automatically bought a fund or individual stocks. Maybe you've just retired, and you'd like to take 40 years of profits to pay off your mortgage, so you're selling some stocks. Maybe a stock hasn't gone anywhere for you, and you don't mind taking a little loss for the tax break. Maybe you found a bargain and you just can't wait to snap up a few shares. Maybe it's a stock bubble or stock valuations are running high.
Obviously, if the market crashes, it's a good time to go shopping for bargains. The stocks tied to lots of wonderful businesses are likely to be depressed -- perhaps significantly so. But if you don't have some ready cash (or access to cash) to take advantage of that, you could be out of luck. Or you might find yourself selling out of some stocks at depressed prices (thus realizing losses or shrunken gains) in order to snap up shares of more compelling stocks. That's not ideal.
The effect was worse in the United Kingdom, particularly on the London Stock Exchange's FT 30, which lost 73% of its value during the crash. From a rate of 5.1% real GDP growth in 1972, the UK went into recession in 1974, with GDP falling by 1.1%. At the time, the UK's property market was going through a major crisis, and a secondary banking crisis forced the Bank of England to bail out a number of lenders. In the United Kingdom, the crash ended after the rent freeze was lifted on 19 December 1974, allowing a readjustment of property prices; over the following year, stock prices rose by 150%. The definitive market low for the FT30 Index (a forerunner of the FTSE100 today) came on 6 January 1975, when the index closed at 146 (having reached a nadir of 145.8 intra-day). The market then practically doubled in just over 3 months. However, unlike in the United States, inflation continued to rise, to 25% in 1975, giving way to the era of stagflation. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index also fell from 1,800 in early 1973 to close to 300.
Our deficit and debt as numbers alone are kind of meaningless.. It only matters relative to other countries and relative to our GDP. For better or worse current economic theory under globalization seems to expect every country to grow and amass more debt while keeping those two values in some kind of balance. So it is hard even for an economist to say how relevant the size of the number is. And a lot of that theory is working out rather poorly for many Euro countries right now.
The 1987 Stock Market Crash was really huge and resulted in millions of people to lose wealth. The reforms that were introduced needed to be strictly followed so that the market could get over the losses soon. To date, the 1987 stock market crash is mentioned to be one of worst crashes in the history of stock trading. After the 1929 stock market crash this was the biggest crash to occur resulting in a huge loss.
Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc.2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.
The GTA market is still a big market and only the Montreal housing market has a chance to outperform the GTA housing market through 2020. Housing markets in Calgary and Vancouver are down significantly. However, the fall market is normally subdued, and buyers are likely waiting to see how the US elections pan out and whether the US housing market and economy will continue growing.
I don’t even know how many records I own, but it’s in the thousands. I have records, tapes, CDs, and computer files going all the way back to the 1880s. I even have one recording from 1869. A scientist was studying sound waves and recorded a woman singing “Clare De Lune.” He recorded it as wavy lines on a soot-covered paper. Someone recently scanned it and converted it back into sound. It doesn’t sound very good, but it’s amazing that you could retrieve sound from marks on a sooty piece of paper.
Finally, higher rates are especially problematic for so-called growth stocks, which includes tech stocks. "The lure for these stocks is growth in earnings down the road, but when interest rates are higher, the future value of those earnings streams declines," Hickey says. On Wednesday, video streamer Netflix fell 8.4 percent, Facebook tumbled 4.1 percent and Apple fell 4.6 percent.
Buy when others sell. Historically, stocks rebound much higher than their price levels just before a bear market. This was the case in 1987, 1990, 2001, and in 2008 (just after the Great Recession began) after severe market collapses in those years. By contributing regularly to your 401k plan, your IRA plan and your stock and mutual fund investments, you're "buying at the dip," as Wall Street traders like to say. That means you're buying when prices are low, thus giving you significantly more bang for your investment buck. Remember, stocks become overpriced as bull markets mature. They become cheap in bear markets.
The Flash Crash: The Impact of High Frequency Trading on an Electronic Market, Andrei A. Kirilenko (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) Albert S. Kyle (University of Maryland; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)) Mehrdad Samadi (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) Tugkan Tuzun (University of Maryland—Robert H. Smith School of Business), October 1, 2010
"I think we're going to work through this continued intersection of domestic and international political risk, with the fact the economy is very good and the earnings projection is very good, and the valuations are creeping up, but they're by no means excessive, with interest rates at this level," said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG. "But our view has been all along that basically you've got to fix the relationship with China in order to really make material further upside progress."
The 2000 stock market crash resulted in a loss of almost $8 trillion of wealth. So what must be the reason for the crash? As has been deduced by market experts, the corporate corruption is believed to be a major reason for the crash to occur. Lots of multinational companies had been drawing profits by engaging in illegal means and frauds. The accounts that they maintained had serious loopholes and the debts were not shown. The stock options that the officers took worked towards diluting the companies. Another probable reason for the 2000 stock market crash was the overvaluation of the stocks and the dot-com bubble burst. Even the companies that had absolutely no hope of earning profits and were consistently losing money had a market capitalization of more than a billion dollar. The stock trading was going on the P/E basis.
It's good to examine your overall portfolio regularly, to make sure it's structured as you want it to be and that you're holding the stocks you want in the proportions you want. For example, if one holding has grown far faster than others, it may now make up a very big portion of your portfolio. Ask yourself if that's OK, and consider paring back that position at least some, especially if the stock seems significantly overvalued. You don't want too many eggs in one basket.
2015–16 stock market selloff 18 August 2015 The Dow Jones fell 588 points during a two-day period, 1,300 points from August 18–21. On Monday, August 24, world stock markets were down substantially, wiping out all gains made in 2015, with interlinked drops in commodities such as oil, which hit a six-year price low, copper, and most of Asian currencies, but the Japanese yen, losing value against the United States dollar. With this plunge, an estimated ten trillion dollars had been wiped off the books on global markets since June 3.   
Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests that there is evidence the frequency of stock market crashes follows an inverse cubic power law. This and other studies such as Prof. Didier Sornette's work suggest that stock market crashes are a sign of self-organized criticality in financial markets. In 1963, Mandelbrot proposed that instead of following a strict random walk, stock price variations executed a Lévy flight. A Lévy flight is a random walk that is occasionally disrupted by large movements. In 1995, Rosario Mantegna and Gene Stanley analyzed a million records of the S&P 500 market index, calculating the returns over a five-year period. Researchers continue to study this theory, particularly using computer simulation of crowd behaviour, and the applicability of models to reproduce crash-like phenomena.
It's true that higher interest rates preceded the housing collapse in 2006. But that's because of the many borrowers who had interest-only loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. Unlike a conventional loan, the interest rates rise along with the fed funds rate. Many also had introductory teaser rates that reset after three years. When the Federal Reserve raised rates at the same time they reset, borrowers found they could no longer afford the payments. Home prices fell at the same time, so these mortgage-holders couldn't make the payments or sell the house.
Since February 2013, the broad market has three circuit breakers tied to the performance of the S&P 500 index. If it loses 7%, 13%, or 20% of its value compared to the previous days close, trading halts for a period of time. If anything can be considered a stock market crash, it's hitting these circuit breakers.Remember, Black Monday (October 19, 1987) saw the DJIA lose 22.6% in a single day.
We want to hear from you and encourage a lively discussion among our users. Please help us keep our site clean and safe by following our posting guidelines, and avoid disclosing personal or sensitive information such as bank account or phone numbers. Any comments posted under NerdWallet's official account are not reviewed or endorsed by representatives of financial institutions affiliated with the reviewed products, unless explicitly stated otherwise.
The May 6, 2010, Flash Crash, also known as the Crash of 2:45, the 2010 Flash Crash or simply the Flash Crash, was a United States trillion-dollar stock market crash, which started at 2:32 p.m. EDT and lasted for approximately 36 minutes.:1 Stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite, collapsed and rebounded very rapidly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its second biggest intraday point drop (from the opening) up to that point, plunging 998.5 points (about 9%), most within minutes, only to recover a large part of the loss. It was also the second-largest intraday point swing (difference between intraday high and intraday low) up to that point, at 1,010.14 points. The prices of stocks, stock index futures, options and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were volatile, thus trading volume spiked.:3 A CFTC 2014 report described it as one of the most turbulent periods in the history of financial markets.:1
As of July 2011, only one theory on the causes of the flash crash was published by a Journal Citation Reports indexed, peer-reviewed scientific journal. It was reported in 2011 that one hour before its collapse in 2010, the stock market registered the highest reading of "toxic order imbalance" in previous history. The authors of this 2011 paper apply widely accepted market microstructure models to understand the behavior of prices in the minutes and hours prior to the crash. According to this paper, "order flow toxicity" can be measured as the probability that informed traders (e.g., hedge funds) adversely select uninformed traders (e.g., market makers). For that purpose, they developed the Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) Flow Toxicity metric, which delivered a real-time estimate of the conditions under which liquidity is being provided. If the order imbalance becomes too toxic, market makers are forced out of the market. As they withdraw, liquidity disappears, which increases even more the concentration of toxic flow in the overall volume, which triggers a feedback mechanism that forces even more market makers out. This cascading effect has caused hundreds of liquidity-induced crashes in the past, the flash crash being one (major) example of it. One hour before the flash crash, order flow toxicity was the highest in recent history.
Are you among the millions of Americans who lost thousands in the tech-stock crash of 2000? Do you wish somebody had said something about the dangers of staking your future on overpriced, risky investments? Today's housing market faces a similar crisis, and John Talbott is saying something about it. Find out about the price risks inherent in home ownership in today's economy, and steps you can take to protect yourself and your family from financial hardship, in Talbott's cautionary but convincing The Coming Crash in the Housing Market.
Fifth, growth in the rest of the world will likely slow down – more so as other countries will see fit to retaliate against US protectionism. China must slow its growth to deal with overcapacity and excessive leverage; otherwise a hard landing will be triggered. And already-fragile emerging markets will continue to feel the pinch from protectionism and tightening monetary conditions in the US.
NR, still stacking myself. Picked up some more .22 and .30 Carbine at the last gun show a month ago. My next big purchase is a new 12-ga. pump, Mossberg 500 or 590. 6 cords of wood are stacked at the BOL now. My cousin just got finished replacing the batteries for the solar system and installed a new Flojak hand pump for the well. Still have the creek out back as a backup source of water. What I have left to move now is just enough to fill up the truck for bugout. The woodstove at the cabin was just replaced 2 years ago along with the pipe. Cabin was totally remodeled 3 years ago. everything is in top condition there. Bugout time can’t come soon enough for me.
Many factors likely contributed to the collapse of the stock market. Among the more prominent causes were the period of rampant speculation (those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their investment, they also owed money to the entities that had granted the loans for the stock purchases), tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve (in August 1929 the discount rate was raised from 5 percent to 6 percent), the proliferation of holding companies and investment trusts (which tended to create debt), a multitude of large bank loans that could not be liquidated, and an economic recession that had begun earlier in the summer.
Having been suspended for three successive trading days (October 9, 10, and 13), the Icelandic stock market reopened on 14 October, with the main index, the OMX Iceland 15, closing at 678.4, which was about 77% lower than the 3,004.6 at the close on October 8. This reflected that the value of the three big banks, which had formed 73.2% of the value of the OMX Iceland 15, had been set to zero.
In Australia, ABS data confirmed that home prices fell again in the June quarter, skilled vacancies rose slightly and population growth remained strong in the March quarter. In terms of house prices, our assessment remains that the combination of tighter bank lending standards, rising supply, poor affordability and falling capital growth expectations point to more falls ahead, with Melbourne and Sydney likely to see top to bottom home price falls of around 15% out to 2020.
The American mobilization for World War II at the end of 1941 moved approximately ten million people out of the civilian labor force and into the war. World War II had a dramatic effect on many parts of the economy, and may have hastened the end of the Great Depression in the United States. Government-financed capital spending accounted for only 5 percent of the annual U.S. investment in industrial capital in 1940; by 1943, the government accounted for 67 percent of U.S. capital investment.
It is not just the uber rish who lose the most. It is the middle class workers. Those of us who have worked hard and survied years of down sizing in larger corporations who will lose a great deal…along with all those who also benifit from our generosity over the years. All the school supply drives, blood drives, holliday food drives to name a few. We try to contribute the amount to our 401’s to earn the companies matching benifits. We are pentalized for taking out our money until we reach the age of 59. Those of us who are to close to retiring don’t have the opportunity to recoup our money. So we will be faced with working to a much older age then we planned. So in reality…while we may be middle income…we don’t have the ability to just put out our money. If we lose a great portion of our 401’s and there is another housing market crash they have managed to chip away yet another chuck of middle imcome households. Sooner or later it will only be the very poor and the very rich! We need a solution to bring back the middle income and a solution for more and more folks to have the opportunity to move beyond lower income! We have done our best to prepare for what life might throw at us short term and long time, but I do believe it is going to be a bummpy ride, so buckle up my prepper friends.
From October 6–10 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed lower in all five sessions. Volume levels were record-breaking. The DJIA fell over 1,874 points, or 18%, in its worst weekly decline ever on both a points and percentage basis. The S&P 500 fell more than 20%. The week also set 3 top ten NYSE Group Volume Records with October 8 at #5, October 9 at #10, and October 10 at #1.
In a less extreme market—for example, one where the Warren Buffett Indicator is around 100 or less—the risks are easier to identify, count, and classify. But in a situation where this indicator is approaching 140%, it’s clear that we’re long past the realm of logic. The markets are ignoring all risks while the Dow keeps climbing. Yet, there is one major risk at the macro level that could slam open the doors for a crash.
When markets are very volatile, the overall trend tends to be down. So what investors should be hoping for are extremely boring days on Wall Street when not much happens. That has been the usual state of affairs for much of the past decade, but now volatility has returned with a vengeance. The following is how CNBC summarized the carnage that we witnessed on Friday…
Forthcoming state elections are being pitched as Modi’s acid test before the parliamentary elections scheduled for May. As the Opposition seeks to cobble together a coalition against the Modi-led BJP and raise fresh controversies to corner his administration, analysts and political observers are losing their earlier confidence about Modi’s chances of winning a second term. An adverse election result may bring in temporary uncertainty over policy continuity and make investors nervous.
Together, the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression formed the largest financial crisis of the 20th century. The panic of October 1929 has come to serve as a symbol of the economic contraction that gripped the world during the next decade. The falls in share prices on October 24 and 29, 1929 were practically instantaneous in all financial markets, except Japan.
Japanese asset price bubble 1991 Lasting approximately twenty years, through at least the end of 2011, share and property price bubble bursts and turns into a long deflationary recession. Some of the key economic events during the collapse of the Japanese asset price bubble include the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the Dot-com bubble. In addition, more recent economic events, such as the late-2000s financial crisis and August 2011 stock markets fall have prolonged this period.
During 1930 and 1931 in particular, unemployed workers went on strike, demonstrated in public, and otherwise took direct action to call public attention to their plight. Within the UK, protests often focused on the so-called Means Test, which the government had instituted in 1931 as a way to limit the amount of unemployment payments made to individuals and families. For working people, the Means Test seemed an intrusive and insensitive way to deal with the chronic and relentless deprivation caused by the economic crisis. The strikes were met forcefully, with police breaking up protests, arresting demonstrators, and charging them with crimes related to the violation of public order.
It now looks like the secular bull market in stocks is turning into a secular bear market that could last for several years if not decades. The stock market acts as a sentiment indicator for what happens in the real economy. No indicator is perfect and stock market moves will be exaggerated in both directions. It is now likely that the world is starting an economic downturn of epic proportions.
Think back too about how you handled past downturns or, for that matter, how you reacted when stocks began to dip and dive. You may not be able to nail it exactly, but you want to come as close as you can to a blend of stocks and bonds that you'll be okay holding in a variety of market conditions, and then make whatever adjustments are necessary to get you to that mix.
Although this latest round of fiscal and monetary stimulus has not had the anticipated economic effect to date, it has produced a negative effect on the Chinese yuan. Leaving some to wonder if China is finally losing control over its currency. In August 2015, an unexpected devaluation in the yuan led to a capital flight as Chinese companies, citizens and investors sought to protect themselves from further declines in the currency. If the yuan weakens too quickly again—either naturally or by another planned devaluation—this would add even more chaos to the already fragile global markets.
A bear market evolves, often after a stock market crash, when investors grow pessimistic about the stock market, and as share prices fall as supply begins to outpace demand. Economists usually refer to a bear market as the result of the stock market losing 20% of its value over a 52-week period. They usually last about four years, although many don't last even that long. Historically, bear markets are a great time to buy stocks, as prices are low and value is high, and that's exactly what smart investors do.
Asian stock markets rose on Friday after Wall Street hit a new high and a survey showed Japanese manufacturing accelerating, an AP report said. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 0.5% to 23,793.35, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.9% to 27,712.47, China's Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.3%, erasing earlier losses, to 2,737.27 while Seoul's Kospi was up 0.2% at 2,327.87.
This is a tricky and unpredictable line of thinking; you can easily get yourself tied up in knots trying to predict what other investors will think about the vague policy pronouncements some member of the Fed has made in a speech here or there. The important takeaway is simple, though: money will flow quickly to where people think they can get the biggest, least risky return. If that's not Treasury bills (and it hasn't been for a long time), it'll go somewhere else. As happened in early September 2016, the suggestion of an interest rate hike by December 2016 led to a selloff on Wall Street.
Greed and only greed caused the crashes. Investing is the attempt to make a financial killing, in other words, bigger profits and less work. Why else would anyone with their head on straignt want to make a profit on the backs of others? Thousands of years ago it was determined by one nation that debts should be forgiven every 7 years. Lending money with large interest rates was unfair. It’s in Egyptian and Abrahamic history. But GAMBLERS saw the same things as unconcerned individuals see today. Morality be dammed and me first.
One particular kind of stock to give special consideration to are dividend-paying stocks. That's because they can simply be great investments on their own and also because when they fall in price, their dividend yields get pushed up. That's a matter of simple math, because a dividend yield is just a fraction -- a stock's total annual dividend divided by its recent stock price. As a simple example, imagine a company that pays out $0.25 per quarter per share, or $1 per year per share. Imagine that it's trading for $50 per share pre-crash and that it falls to $40 post-crash. The dividend stays the same -- though companies in deep trouble may indeed cut or eliminate their dividend. Divide $1 by $50 and you'll get 0.02, or a 2% dividend yield. Divide $1 by $40, and you'll get 0.025, or a 2.5% yield. If the stock falls in half, to $25 per share, its dividend yield will be 4%. That's why market downturns can be great for dividend investors -- not only are dividend yields boosted, but depressed stock prices can also be bargains, with the promise of growth when the market recovers.
You haven’t seen the effects of *any* of Trumps decisions yet. And Obama’s decisions had virtually zero impact on creating the Great Recession. There wasn’t time. Unless you believe in teleportation, magic, and instantaneous changes to the marketplace and if that’s the case, I’m a nigerian prince building a bridge and boy have I got a business proposition for you…