"Charlie and I view the marketable common stocks that Berkshire owns as interests in businesses, not as ticker symbols to be bought or sold based on their 'chart' patterns, the 'target' prices of analysts or the opinions of media pundits. Instead, we simply believe that if the businesses of the investees are successful (as we believe most will be) our investments will be successful as well."

We are humbled by the overwhelming response we received for the "Invest Like a Pro" Virtual Stock Contest. We hope the last three months were as exciting for you as they were for us. Our goal was to take you on an eventful journey where you could mimic a real trading experience without any risk but at the same time win real cash prizes. In the process we hope you were able to brush up on your stock picking skills.

I am very frightened. This past June, I allowed a financial advisor to convince me that my portfolio made up of primarily stocks was risky for a retiree. I have been retired since 2005 and had held the same stocks since then. These stocks included 2 Canadian banks, BCE, TransAlta, and Emera. I was receiving dividends o $4,800 per year and all the stocks consistently raised their dividends. The financial advisor put me in2 costly mutual funds which proceeded to lose me $ 1800 within days and also swallowed up up my incoming dividends from the former portfolio. By the time I was down $6,000 I panicked and pulled out of the mutual funds. And! This was in 2017. What I have left and what I thought would carry me through my retirement is now in a money market making very little and I am terrified daily as to reinvesting it.

This was an attempt to hedge a 20% decline in $100,000 of equities so it performed pretty well in our hypothetical crash, protecting against nearly the entire loss. And you could also work backwards, as Spitznagel suggests in the second strategy described above, using this calculator. This way, you might say I want to protect against a $20,000 loss so I need to buy 61 put options ($20,000 divided by $328.10) rather than just the 55 we bought using the first strategy.

"Charlie and I view the marketable common stocks that Berkshire owns as interests in businesses, not as ticker symbols to be bought or sold based on their 'chart' patterns, the 'target' prices of analysts or the opinions of media pundits. Instead, we simply believe that if the businesses of the investees are successful (as we believe most will be) our investments will be successful as well."
It is not a big surprise, however, that many investors today remain interested in the forecasts of financial analysts regardless of their success. Humans in the past consulted oracles, crystal balls and tea leaves. It’s in our nature: As the proverb goes, “tell me a fact, and I'll learn; tell me a truth, and I’ll believe; but tell me a story and it will live in my heart forever.” We are attracted to story-telling, and when it comes to investing we seem to be searching for the most compelling narratives about the unknowable future, regardless of how accurate they turn out to be.
US data remains strong. Manufacturing conditions remained strong in the New York and Philadelphia regions and the Markit manufacturing PMI rose, the Conference Board’s leading indicator is continuing to rise, and jobless claims fell further. Housing-related data, like starts, permits and sales, doesn’t have a lot of momentum but it’s consistent with a flat/modest contribution to economic growth and at least it’s a long way from the pre-GFC housing boom that went bust.
Soaring home prices, combined with 50-year low interest rates, have lulled U.S. homebuyers into a false sense of security. But current economic conditions, combined with the actions of overly aggressive lenders, leave the housing market ripe for a major crash. The Coming Crash in the Housing Market is the first rational, unbiased examination of the dangers homeowners face in today's climate of overpriced housing and overextended credit. Asking and answering questions that have for too long been ignored, respected economic consultant John Talbott provides:
With a Real Wealth Strategist subscription Matt will be your guide to making the kinds of profits many investors only dream about. You’ll get access to his education and experience: Over 20 years in the natural resource industry, expertise in mining, industry and agriculture, and the chance to travel with him as he visits mines, oil projects and company headquarters, in search of the perfect investment idea. Real Wealth Strategist’s portfolio focuses on all natural resources. Essentially, if there’s a way to maximize profits, he’s going to find it and recommend it.
Till August 1987 markets were favorable. In fact, as per the records of 25th August 1987, the Dow was of a 2722.44, which was almost a record hike. But after that, it only started to depreciate. An 8.4% drop was recorded on September 22nd, 1987. But then there was an increase of Dow again. A 5.9% increase was recorded on the 2nd of October 1987. But that was only for the time being. Once again the Dow started to fall and by October 19th the market had badly crashed; so much so that the Dow had dropped to 508. That would be almost a 22.6% drop on that single day. And if the drop had to be measured from the peak on 25th August, it was a whopping 36.7%. October 19th has since been referred to as the Black Monday.
The big banks expect interest rates to continue to rise to between 2.25 per cent and 2.75 per cent by the end of 2019. And that will keep turning the screws on Canadians’ budgets, with more money going toward mortgage and other debt payments and less left as disposable income. Climbing rates will also continue to raise the bar for wannabe homeowners who to pass the federal mortgage stress test in order to qualify for a new mortgage.
Eighth, once a correction occurs, the risk of illiquidity and fire sales/undershooting will become more severe. There are reduced market-making and warehousing activities by broker-dealers. Excessive high-frequency/algorithmic trading will raise the likelihood of “flash crashes.” And fixed-income instruments have become more concentrated in open-ended exchange-traded and dedicated credit funds.

“There’s no question when you look at last week, some of the selling is the result of programmatic selling because as volatility goes up, some of these algorithms force people to sell,” Solomon told CNBC’s Wilfred Frost. “Market structure can, at times, contribute to volatility and one of the things that we’re spending a bunch of time thinking about at the firm is how changes in market structure over the course of the last 10 years will affect market activity.”


In a 2011 article that appeared on the Wall Street Journal on the eve of the anniversary of the 2010 "flash crash", it was reported that high-frequency traders were then less active in the stock market. Another article in the journal said trades by high-frequency traders had decreased to 53% of stock-market trading volume, from 61% in 2009.[81] Former Delaware senator Edward E. Kaufman and Michigan senator Carl Levin published a 2011 op-ed in The New York Times a year after the Flash Crash, sharply critical of what they perceived to be the SEC's apparent lack of action to prevent a recurrence.[82]

Even after the turnaround began in March 2009, it's not as if investors knew the bear had run its course. The S&P dropped by more than 15% in 2010 and by almost 20% in 2011. We know now that these setbacks were temporary speed bumps (albeit scary ones) within a new bull market. But investors back then didn't have the advantage of being able to consult a stock chart, as we can today, that showed them how it all played out.
I find it hard to believe inventory increased by 50 percent, do you have any numbers on that? To see why inventory is low you need to look at the number of sales as well. If we were selling many more homes that would indicate inventory is low because people are buying everything up, but sales are down. That indicates it is not investors buying everything, but there are simply not enough houses for sale. That is what I see in most markets. There are not enough houses for everyone who wants to buy.
Scenario:  Big money chases few homes, and when governments persist in stopping or not supporting land development, speculators become more confident prices will rise further. Then a politician or FED president steps in with their reactive solution, at the end of the business cycle where employment and profits will begin to drop. Speculators/investors pull out fast, and the slide begins.
“Do you remember how fragile the world seemed in 2008 when banks were collapsing and the stock market was in free fall? When you pictured the future, did it seem dark and dangerous? Or did it seem like the good times were just around the corner and the party was about to begin? The fact is, once a bear market ends, the following 12 months can see crucial market gains.”
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The cost of ownership in the most high priced markets is going up even more. Why? The limitation on the mortgage interest deduction to $750K and the limitation on the sales and property tax deduction to $10K. With the increase in interest rates, the partial non deductibility of interest and taxes, the overall cost of ownership is going up. Most people will feel the punch in their guts next year when they file the 2018 taxes. That is when most folks would realize what hit them was not a pleasant surprise!
By the end of the weekend of November 11, the index stood at 228, a cumulative drop of 40% from the September high. The markets rallied in succeeding months, but it was a temporary recovery that led unsuspecting investors into further losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 89% of its value before finally bottoming out in July 1932. The crash was followed by the Great Depression, the worst economic crisis of modern times, which plagued the stock market and Wall Street throughout the 1930s.
Some enduring red flags, Filia said, are in the form of politics and geopolitics — growing populism across Europe as well as Middle East and Asian tensions. But more than that he sees shrinking liquidity — central bank spending flows in reverse for the first time in a decade — as the "first real crash test" for momentum and volatility, as well as rising interest rates.
In finance, Black Monday refers to Monday, October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already sustained significant declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell exactly 508 points to 1,738.74 (22.61%).[1] In Australia and New Zealand, the 1987 crash is also referred to as "Black Tuesday" because of the time zone difference.
It is not just the uber rish who lose the most. It is the middle class workers. Those of us who have worked hard and survied years of down sizing in larger corporations who will lose a great deal…along with all those who also benifit from our generosity over the years. All the school supply drives, blood drives, holliday food drives to name a few. We try to contribute the amount to our 401’s to earn the companies matching benifits. We are pentalized for taking out our money until we reach the age of 59. Those of us who are to close to retiring don’t have the opportunity to recoup our money. So we will be faced with working to a much older age then we planned. So in reality…while we may be middle income…we don’t have the ability to just put out our money. If we lose a great portion of our 401’s and there is another housing market crash they have managed to chip away yet another chuck of middle imcome households. Sooner or later it will only be the very poor and the very rich! We need a solution to bring back the middle income and a solution for more and more folks to have the opportunity to move beyond lower income! We have done our best to prepare for what life might throw at us short term and long time, but I do believe it is going to be a bummpy ride, so buckle up my prepper friends.

Housing has typically been a hedge against inflation. This time it will be inflation that kills the housing market. President Bush recently spent 800 Billion in 2 days. Federal spending is up over 30%. The Medicare bill will cost the US between 2 and 3 TRILLION dollars in the next 20 years. Only through devaluing the dollar (which has already begun) and massive tax increases, can the government hope to pay its bills. This means inflation, and lots of it. The people that are investing in real estate have a chronic myopia when it comes to economic history.


Some of these motivations come from people all following each other, trying to predict the exact economic actions of other people all engaged in the same activity. (People who bought a stock at too high a price are looking for greater fools to unload it on.) While the market's open, everyone's trying to figure out the optimal value for the price of every stock everywhere. It's exhausting to think about the trillion or so variables that go into that immense labor of capitalism. It's crazy to consider how complicated the chains of cause and effect and overthinking are.
My guess is we’ll see a continued decline overall this fall with the luxury market seeing a bigger drop. The liberal’s vacant home tax would be pathetic, just a psychological tactic to scare away Asian buyers. The overall Canadian market isn’t strong which indicates the economy isn’t great. The Toronto market has a lot of downward momentum that could continue right through to spring. Vancouver has bounced back from government meddling so maybe by spring Toronto can do it too. Can Toronto continue to be isolated from the Canadian economy? The NAFTA deal is what could send the Toronto Housing Market and the economy crashing. Overall, homeowners would be wise to sell because prices are high and availability limited. Why wait for lower prices in 6 months?
The crash followed an asset bubble. Since 1922, the stock market had gone up by almost 20 percent a year. Everyone invested, thanks to a financial invention called buying "on margin." It allowed people to borrow money from their broker to buy stocks. They only needed to put down 10-20 percent. Investing this way contributed to the irrational exuberance of the Roaring Twenties.
The Indian rupee strengthened further against US dollar in the early afternoon deals on Friday following the sustained weakness in the crude oil prices. The domestic currency (rupee) extended morning gains on Friday and hit a fresh 2-week high at 71.7663, up 62 paise per unit US dollar, the Bloomberg data showed. The rupee is trading 120 paise higher from the all-time low of 72.97 apiece US dollar. Earlier on Tuesday this week, the rupee went very close to hitting 73/$ and made a record low at 72.9675 against US dollar. 

Since the crashes of 1929 and 1987, safeguards have been put in place to prevent crashes due to panicked stockholders selling their assets. Such safeguards include trading curbs, or circuit breakers, which prevent any trade activity whatsoever for a certain period of time following a sharp decline in stock prices, in hopes of stabilizing the market and preventing it from falling further.
Free movement of people was only one aspect of why people voted to leave the eu. There is another even more pressing, that of regaining sovereignty given away by those who thought nothing of betraying it in the first place. Yes the Gov. could be brought down by the latest betrayal of sovereignty, not only the Gov but the Tory Party itself, with no chance of a come back for decades to come, if ever.
Not only has subprime lending seen a major decline, but mortgages have also become much harder to attain due to stringent lending standards. According to CoreLogic’s Housing Credit Index, loans originated in 2016 were among the highest quality originated in the last 15 years. This is greatly due to the type of borrowers able to qualify for loans. The current average credit score for borrowers being granted mortgages is 739. In October 2009, the average FICO score was 686, according to Fair Isaac. The lowest one percent of mortgages issued have credit scores averaging 622-624. Compared to the average range in 2001 of 490-510, the standard to get financing has risen substantially, and as a result, the likelihood of default has dropped. Lenders have done this to ensure the economy doesn’t again become propped on bad loans like it was leading up to the Great Recession.
The crash shook the then-booming industry, and led to the bankruptcy of several companies producing home computers and video game consoles in the region. It lasted about two years. Analysts of the time expressed doubts about the long-term viability of video game consoles and software. The North American video game console industry recovered a few years later, mostly due to the widespread success of the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) in 1985; Nintendo designed the NES as the Western branding for its Famicom console originally released in 1983 to avoid the missteps that caused the 1983 crash and avoid the stigma that video games had at that time.
After a one-day recovery on October 30, where the Dow regained an additional 28.40 points, or 12 percent, to close at 258.47, the market continued to fall, arriving at an interim bottom on November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. The market then recovered for several months, starting on November 14, with the Dow gaining 18.59 points to close at 217.28, and reaching a secondary closing peak (i.e., bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930. The following year, the Dow embarked on another, much longer, steady slide from April 1931 to July 8, 1932, when it closed at 41.22—its lowest level of the 20th century, concluding an 89 percent loss rate for all of the market's stocks.
Accolade achieved a technical victory in one court case against Sega, challenging this control, even though it ultimately yielded and signed the Sega licensing agreement. Several publishers, notably Tengen (Atari), Color Dreams, and Camerica, challenged Nintendo's control system during the 8-bit era by producing unlicensed NES games. The concepts of such a control system remain in use on every major video game console produced today, even with fewer "cartridge-based" consoles on the market than in the 8/16-bit era. Replacing the security chips in most modern consoles are specially encoded optical discs that cannot be copied by most users and can only be read by a particular console under normal circumstances.

Oil futures inched up on Friday amid concerns over supply as U.S. sanctions on Iran's crude exports loom, although calls by U.S. President Donald Trump for lower oil prices dragged, a Reuters report said. Brent crude for November delivery was up 26 cents, or 0.33%, at $78.96 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery was up 7 cents, or 0.10%, at $70.39 a barrel, the report added. 
"We don't know who is to blame here; it's a little like trying to find what or who is responsible for the dangerous hurricane in Florida today," says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG, a Tokyo-based global bank with offices in New York. "But make no mistake about it, the stock market decline, triggered perhaps by rising bond yields, is just as dangerous."
Since the Great Recession, the financial system of the country has somewhat matured, thanks to the introduction of tight regulations including Dodd Frank and Basel III with the sole agenda of preventing bundling of mortgages, and in turn another crisis. While there still are plenty of risky loans today, these are not big enough to cause an economic meltdown.
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