Finally, once the perfect storm outlined above occurs, the policy tools for addressing it will be sorely lacking. The space for fiscal stimulus is already limited by massive public debt. The possibility for more unconventional monetary policies will be limited by bloated balance sheets and the lack of headroom to cut policy rates. And financial-sector bailouts will be intolerable in countries with resurgent populist movements and near-insolvent governments.

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“I think as Americans lose their jobs, they are going to see the cost of living going up rather dramatically, and so this is going to make it particularly painful,” Schiff said. “This is a bubble not just in the stock market, but the entire economy,” he told Fox News Business. Schiff is predicting a recession, accompanied by rising consumer prices, that will be “far more painful” than the 2007-2009 Great Recession.
US data remains strong. Manufacturing conditions remained strong in the New York and Philadelphia regions and the Markit manufacturing PMI rose, the Conference Board’s leading indicator is continuing to rise, and jobless claims fell further. Housing-related data, like starts, permits and sales, doesn’t have a lot of momentum but it’s consistent with a flat/modest contribution to economic growth and at least it’s a long way from the pre-GFC housing boom that went bust.
The stock market crash of 1929 – considered the worst economic event in world history – began on Thursday, October 24, 1929, with skittish investors trading a record 12.9 million shares. On October 28, dubbed “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 13 percent. The market fell another 12 percent the next day, “Black Tuesday.” While the crisis send shock waves across the financial world, there were numerous signs that a stock market crash was coming. What exactly caused the crash – and could it have been prevented?

Greed and only greed caused the crashes. Investing is the attempt to make a financial killing, in other words, bigger profits and less work. Why else would anyone with their head on straignt want to make a profit on the backs of others? Thousands of years ago it was determined by one nation that debts should be forgiven every 7 years. Lending money with large interest rates was unfair. It’s in Egyptian and Abrahamic history. But GAMBLERS saw the same things as unconcerned individuals see today. Morality be dammed and me first.


These countries are full of boastful bravado about their ability to stand on their own two feet without the US, the reality is the abruptness of the protectism wave might be too much. If these economies collapse, including a China housing market collapse would a Tsunamai be sent toward US shores that would send into recession.  Right now, this could be the number one threat.
Canada, along with Australia, stands out both for its sky-high housing prices and its gargantuan household debt levels. Home prices have grown by 24 per cent since 1999, compared to 18 per cent in Australia, 13 per cent in the U.S. and 12 per cent in the U.K. The amount that Canadian families owe, meanwhile, is as big as this country’s GDP, a level surpassed only in Australia, where household debt is now larger the size of the economy.
I agree with the first posting. Interesting synopsis of the real estate market but your support of trump is really misplaced. He is a liar and cannot be trusted in ANYTHING he does. The 90s under Clinton and the GOP congress was the best economic expansion in our country’s history, period. Opportunity everywhere. Taxes were high, but we were more balanced. The Obama years were more about the Tea Party than anything. And guess what. Unless Trump solves this dilemma, he’s done and we’re done too. The FED is the only thing that has kept us from roiling over the edge for the last 8+ years. And I’m guessing under Trump after a few years of super heating the economy again, like under Way, we’ll be looking at another speculative crash. Why? Because the GOP has sold us down the river. NO? Everything in our lives now reflects business and speculative interests? Who benefits? Gee I don’t know. Maybe rich people that can speculate on everything that touches us. Time to leave. You stay in the game and keep preaching growth instead of stability. Let’s see how it all works out.
The New York Times then noted, "Automatic computerized traders on the stock market shut down as they detected the sharp rise in buying and selling".[25] As computerized high-frequency traders exited the stock market, the resulting lack of liquidity "caused shares of some prominent companies like Procter & Gamble and Accenture to trade down as low as a penny or as high as $100,000".[25] These extreme prices also resulted from "market internalizers",[44][45][46] firms that usually trade with customer orders from their own inventory instead of sending those orders to exchanges, "routing 'most, if not all,' retail orders to the public markets—a flood of unusual selling pressure that sucked up more dwindling liquidity".[26]

Did you ever stop to think about how goods and services can’t teleport? We don’t have teleportation technology – or magic, for that matter. So when a president/congress decides to move the economy, it takes *time* for the economy to react. Policies take time to come in force, markets take time to guage impacts and respond accordingly, equilibrium is established only after a long series of interractions. It takes *years* not days or weeks. You don’t judge a president (or congress) by what happens immediately after they take office (read: the economic meltdown during Obama’s first term, or the economic uptick during Trump’s first few months). You look at what happens two years into their term of office, with acknowledgement of the context.


The last week of January 2018 and the first week of February 2018, the Dow Jones dropped several hundred points. It looks to close out February 2 down hundreds of points, with other indexes (S&P 500, NASDAQ) to follow. While this may seem like a crisis, it is more than likely to reflect short-term investors taking their profits (in the long run up to this point) and shuffling them to other types of investments to prepare for improved bond yields.
The Toronto situation is similar to Vancouver’s housing market where prices have really plummeted (43%). With the resolution of trade with the US, it appears no Toronto housing crash is imminent, and prices will return to their upward climb.  Inevitably, high interest rates and Canada’s lack of competitiveness will create a new crisis. New listings will likely drop as homeowners feel more comfortable with their employment outlook, and enjoy the housing price rise.
Using a simple options calculator (like that available at options-price.com) we can calculate how our put options purchased in the example above would perform after a 20% decline in the span of just a month. In this hypothetical example, SPY drops to 175 and implied volatility rises to 55 (for this example I took the VIX level of 45 in October 2002, as suggested by Spitznagel, and added 10 points for 10% out-of-the-money put options). Our puts have gone from $9 each in value to $328.10. We own 55 of them so they are now worth just over $18,000 in total.
For a few years now, the reason for fast rising home prices have been blamed on tight inventory. After seeing what has happened in Toronto, I’m starting to question these claims of tight inventory in almost all major housing markets (US and globally). In Toronto, within two weeks, they went from having very low inventory to having a 50% increase. Where did all of their extra inventory come from? Could the same happen to other major cities as well? It’s possible that there are low inventory in so many places due to aggressive investor speculation, which is then causing locals to panic buy. Very similar to the irrational exuberance happening before the housing crash 10 years ago. Something can trigger these property investors to sell all at the same time, and cause buyers to pull back, similar to what’s happening in Toronto. Another housing crash is possible, and it doesn’t have to be caused by bad loans like last time.
The level of panic that we witnessed on Wall Street on Wednesday was breathtaking.  After a promising start to the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started plunging, and at the close it was down another 608 points.  Since peaking at 26,951.81 on October 3rd, the Dow has now fallen 2,368 points, and all of the gains for 2018 have been completely wiped out.  But things are even worse when we look at the Nasdaq.  The percentage decline for the Nasdaq almost doubled the Dow’s stunning plunge on Wednesday, and it has now officially entered correction territory.  To say that it was a “bloodbath” for tech stocks on Wednesday would be a major understatement.  Several big name tech stocks were in free fall mode as panic swept through the marketplace like wildfire.  As I noted the other day, October 2018 looks a whole lot like October 2008, and many believe that the worst is yet to come.
Despite fears of a repeat of the 1930s Depression, the market rallied immediately after the crash, posting a record one-day gain of 102.27 the very next day and 186.64 points on Thursday October 22. It took only two years for the Dow to recover completely; by September 1989, the market had regained all of the value it had lost in the 1987 crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained six-tenths of a percent during the calendar year 1987.
With a Real Wealth Strategist subscription Matt will be your guide to making the kinds of profits many investors only dream about. You’ll get access to his education and experience: Over 20 years in the natural resource industry, expertise in mining, industry and agriculture, and the chance to travel with him as he visits mines, oil projects and company headquarters, in search of the perfect investment idea. Real Wealth Strategist’s portfolio focuses on all natural resources. Essentially, if there’s a way to maximize profits, he’s going to find it and recommend it.
The Indian rupee jumped as much as 55 paise against the US dollar in the opening trade at the interbank foreign exchange market on Friday. The rupee regained a level of 71.8288, up 55 paise per unit US dollar, the Bloomberg data showed. India's government is planning to ask state oil firms to lock in their crude futures purchase prices, Reuters reported citing an unidentified government source, anticipating a spike when US sanctions on Iran snap back again in November. The move would be another step to tackle a slide in the rupee, as oil prices are putting pressure on India, the report added. 
“Do you remember how fragile the world seemed in 2008 when banks were collapsing and the stock market was in free fall? When you pictured the future, did it seem dark and dangerous? Or did it seem like the good times were just around the corner and the party was about to begin? The fact is, once a bear market ends, the following 12 months can see crucial market gains.”
6750 ft up on top of a mountain lends some perspective that’s for sure, The quiet is great for the sole. We still have to work during the week. On the weekends we work for ourselves, gathering firewood learning how to grow food etc. Freedom at least for me is eliminating the need for outside inputs. We have just enough solar power to be comfortable running our house. Woodstove for heat, well for our water. Growing some vegetables for food. Every year is easier than the year before.

In France, the main French stock index is called the CAC 40. Daily price limits are implemented in cash and derivative markets. Securities traded on the markets are divided into three categories according to the number and volume of daily transactions. Price limits for each security vary by category. For instance, for the more[most?] liquid category, when the price movement of a security from the previous day's closing price exceeds 10%, the quotation is suspended for 15 minutes, and transactions are then resumed. If the price then goes up or down by more than 5%, transactions are again suspended for 15 minutes. The 5% threshold may apply once more before transactions are halted for the rest of the day. When such a suspension occurs, transactions on options based on the underlying security are also suspended. Further, when more than 35% of the capitalization of the CAC40 Index cannot be quoted, the calculation of the CAC40 Index is suspended and the index is replaced by a trend indicator. When less than 25% of the capitalization of the CAC40 Index can be quoted, quotations on the derivative markets are suspended for half an hour or one hour, and additional margin deposits are requested.[43]

However, there are a few qualifications to this: there is some risk that the migrant intake may be cut; while accelerating population growth in Queensland will support Brisbane property prices, population growth is slowing in NSW and Victoria so it’s becoming a bit less supportive of property prices in those states; and the supply of new dwellings has been catching up to strong population growth so undersupply is giving way to oversupply in some areas. The risk of the latter is highlighted by the continuing very high residential crane count which is still dominated by Sydney and Melbourne, indicating that there is still of lot of supply to hit the market ahead. Out of interest, Australia’s total residential crane count alone of 528 cranes is way above the total crane count (ie residential and non-residential) in the US of 300 and Canada of 123!
A bull market -- just like the one the U.S. stock market has experienced since 2009 -- happens when investors are optimistic about the markets and the economy, and when demand outpaces supply, thus driving up share prices. As bull markets peter out -- they can last anywhere from two years to nine years -- all it takes is a significant market event to create a crisis of confidence among investors and draw more sellers into the market. This can create a stock market crash that leads to a bear market.
The SEC and CFTC joint 2010 report itself says that "May 6 started as an unusually turbulent day for the markets" and that by the early afternoon "broadly negative market sentiment was already affecting an increase in the price volatility of some individual securities". At 2:32 p.m. (EDT), against a "backdrop of unusually high volatility and thinning liquidity" that day, a large fundamental trader (known to be Waddell & Reed Financial Inc.[23]) "initiated a sell program to sell a total of 75,000 E-Mini S&P contracts (valued at approximately $4.1 billion) as a hedge to an existing equity position". The report says that this was an unusually large position and that the computer algorithm the trader used to trade the position was set to "target an execution rate set to 9% of the trading volume calculated over the previous minute, but without regard to price or time".[41]

By the end of October, stock markets had fallen in Hong Kong (45.5%), Australia (41.8%), Spain (31%), the United Kingdom (26.45%), the United States (22.68%) and Canada (22.5%). New Zealand's market was hit especially hard, falling about 60% from its 1987 peak, and would take several years to recover.[5][6] The damage to the New Zealand economy was compounded by high exchange rates and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's refusal to loosen monetary policy in response to the crisis, in contrast to countries such as West Germany, Japan and the United States, whose banks increased short-term liquidity to forestall recession and would experience economic growth in the following 2–3 years.[7]
Slingshot, you have me laughing, thats a good one. Hopefully i am not responsible for run on the ammo. Me like everyone else, has heard it from the horses mouth. No one knows the exact date when it will hit in September. I was told by my scientist that by Novermber, people will literally be on the streets in mass, raising hell on earth, and he is not sure why, its just what he was told. Food and water shortage, civil war, revolution, uprising? etc. Who knows. All that crap i am tryping up, its what i am being told is likely to commense.

On September 20, the London Stock Exchange crashed when top British investor Clarence Hatry and many of his associates were jailed for fraud and forgery.[8] The London crash greatly weakened the optimism of American investment in markets overseas.[8] In the days leading up to the crash, the market was severely unstable. Periods of selling and high volumes were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery.
The mathematical description of stock market movements has been a subject of intense interest. The conventional assumption has been that stock markets behave according to a random log-normal distribution.[9] Among others, mathematician Benoît Mandelbrot suggested as early as 1963 that the statistics prove this assumption incorrect.[10] Mandelbrot observed that large movements in prices (i.e. crashes) are much more common than would be predicted from a log-normal distribution. Mandelbrot and others suggested that the nature of market moves is generally much better explained using non-linear analysis and concepts of chaos theory.[11] This has been expressed in non-mathematical terms by George Soros in his discussions of what he calls reflexivity of markets and their non-linear movement.[12] George Soros said in late October 1987, 'Mr. Robert Prechter's reversal proved to be the crack that started the avalanche'.[13][14]
Jesazzzz Koverist. This means that post calapse, the city air will be unbreathable from all the garbage, rotting and decaying stinking dead bodies all over all the major cities, meaning that, the DUMB-F…k survivors, these are the New Preppers, who were not preppers, who jus scavenged, tore up the restaurants, fast food joints, distribution centers, possible white, middle class, people who laughed at us prepper types, who went, damn, lets get all the food and water now, we are clearing the f…k out of town to the country. Now we can see if we awesome preppers who were able to GTFOT, GET THE F… OUT OF TOWN TYPES. then we preppers can see literally, get this millions, 50,000,000 plus, fleeing the cities, jamed up on the freeways with Jade Helm 15, russian and chinses soldiers at check points grabbing people, shooting the men point blank range and grabbing women and children off the freeways, gun ships and drones all the sky, tanks, and other military equipment suddenly rolled out on the streets of all the major cities shooting the men on all the major freeways in all the major cities. Trapped Patriots, veterans and Local Red Necks and new Freedom fighters of all races, black, white, hispanic, asain and other unreconizable nationals that we dont or cant tell wtf? there are, now engaged in gun battles against one another. The kind of situation, that even tough guys like myself litterally loose bladder control, and piss my pants at the mere taught of it. As we literally witness the first stage of calapse.
People who were caught in the 2008 crash are spooked that a 2018 bubble will lead to another crash. But that crash was caused by forces that are no longer present. Credit default swaps insured derivatives such as mortgage-backed securities. Hedge fund managers created a huge demand for these supposedly risk-free securities. That created demand for the mortgages that backed them.
"Maybe it's a calculation that raising the temperature and slapping these tariffs on will play better coming into November, but our view is that's one of the potential headwinds facing the market moving into September," Emanuel said. China is not expected to return to negotiations until after the outcome of the election is clear. "China basically realized ... there's a potential for their negotiating position to improve."
The 2000 stock market crash resulted in a loss of almost $8 trillion of wealth. So what must be the reason for the crash? As has been deduced by market experts, the corporate corruption is believed to be a major reason for the crash to occur. Lots of multinational companies had been drawing profits by engaging in illegal means and frauds. The accounts that they maintained had serious loopholes and the debts were not shown. The stock options that the officers took worked towards diluting the companies. Another probable reason for the 2000 stock market crash was the overvaluation of the stocks and the dot-com bubble burst. Even the companies that had absolutely no hope of earning profits and were consistently losing money had a market capitalization of more than a billion dollar. The stock trading was going on the P/E basis.
With IL&FS getting closer to an absolute liquidity crunch and defaulting on its ICDs and CPs, the RBI has started tightening the vigilance on banks and other financial institutions. For starters, the RBI asked banks to be cautious about buying HFC bonds considering their exposure to IL&FS debt. IL&FS has outstanding debt to the tune of $12.5 billion and the market is rife with news that most of the HFCs have large exposure to IL&FS debt. Of course, the promoters of Indiabulls and DHFL have denied any exposure but the news refuses to go away. The mood was also sourced by a large Indian mutual fund selling DHFL bonds in the market at an above-market yield of almost 11%. That also took its toll on the markets.

Not only has subprime lending seen a major decline, but mortgages have also become much harder to attain due to stringent lending standards. According to CoreLogic’s Housing Credit Index, loans originated in 2016 were among the highest quality originated in the last 15 years. This is greatly due to the type of borrowers able to qualify for loans. The current average credit score for borrowers being granted mortgages is 739. In October 2009, the average FICO score was 686, according to Fair Isaac. The lowest one percent of mortgages issued have credit scores averaging 622-624. Compared to the average range in 2001 of 490-510, the standard to get financing has risen substantially, and as a result, the likelihood of default has dropped. Lenders have done this to ensure the economy doesn’t again become propped on bad loans like it was leading up to the Great Recession.
Finally, once you feel you've got a portfolio that will provide sufficient gains during rising markets and enough protection during routs so you'll be able to hang on until the eventual recovery, stick with that mix, except for occasional rebalancing, regardless of what's going on in the market. The idea is to make sure your portfolio doesn't become too aggressive during market upswings or too conservative when stocks take a hit.
The following day, Black Tuesday, was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The Dow fell 30.57 points to close at 230.07 on that day. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23% – from Wikipedia

Some recent peer-reviewed research shows that flash crashes are not isolated occurrences, but have occurred quite often. Gao and Mizrach studied US equities over the period of 1993–2011. They show that breakdowns in market quality (such as flash crashes) have occurred in every year they examined and that, apart from the financial crisis, such problems have declined since the introduction of Reg NMS. They also show that 2010, while infamous for the Flash Crash, was not a year with an inordinate number of breakdowns in market quality.[11]
Prior to 1982, the most significant home console was the Atari 2600, along with numerous dedicated single-game consoles such as variants of Pong. The Atari 2600 was launched in 1977, but in its first few years, had modest sales. In 1980, Atari created a licensed version of Space Invaders from Taito, which became known as the killer application for the console; sales of the Atari 2600 quadrupled, and the game was the first title to sell more than a million copies.[1][2]
Till August 1987 markets were favorable. In fact, as per the records of 25th August 1987, the Dow was of a 2722.44, which was almost a record hike. But after that, it only started to depreciate. An 8.4% drop was recorded on September 22nd, 1987. But then there was an increase of Dow again. A 5.9% increase was recorded on the 2nd of October 1987. But that was only for the time being. Once again the Dow started to fall and by October 19th the market had badly crashed; so much so that the Dow had dropped to 508. That would be almost a 22.6% drop on that single day. And if the drop had to be measured from the peak on 25th August, it was a whopping 36.7%. October 19th has since been referred to as the Black Monday.
Following the 55%-plunge in DHFL share price, biggest since listing, Kapil Wadhawan, CMD, DHFL said to CNBC TV18 that it is a big surprise and shock to him. We are sitting in a strong liquidity position and there is not default whatsoever, Wadhawan said. All this what we are seeing is a "panic-stricken market reaction" and the total liability position till 31 March 2018 was just Rs 4,800 crore, Wadhawan said further to CNBC TV18. At the same time, there is close to Rs 10,000 crore of liquidity available with us in the system other than collections that we accrue on a monthly basis, Wadhawan said. NPA position is strong and the asset quality is top notch, Wadhawan added. 

I find it hard to believe inventory increased by 50 percent, do you have any numbers on that? To see why inventory is low you need to look at the number of sales as well. If we were selling many more homes that would indicate inventory is low because people are buying everything up, but sales are down. That indicates it is not investors buying everything, but there are simply not enough houses for sale. That is what I see in most markets. There are not enough houses for everyone who wants to buy.
The release of so many new games in 1982 flooded the market. Most stores had insufficient space to carry new games and consoles. As stores tried to return the surplus games to the new publishers, the publishers had neither new products nor cash to issue refunds to the retailers. Many publishers, including Games by Apollo and US Games, quickly folded.[citation needed] Unable to return the unsold games to defunct publishers, stores marked down the titles and placed them in discount bins and sale tables. Recently released games which initially sold for US $35 (equivalent to $92 in 2018) were in bins for $5 ($13 in 2018).[30][31] Crane said that "those awful games flooded the market at huge discounts, and ruined the video game business".[27] By June 1983, the market for the more expensive games had shrunk dramatically and was replaced by a new market of rushed-to-market, low-budget games.
The 10-year Treasury note – whose key rate impacts the pricing on things ranging from fixed-rate mortgages to stocks to virtually every financial asset on the planet – recently climbed above 3.25 percent for the first time since May 2011. And when you add the threat of higher borrowing costs on things such as houses and cars and corporate debt to the economic obstacles caused by the U.S. trade war with China, all it takes is a whiff of weakness to set a major sell-off in motion.
Everyone seems to have an explanation for why stock prices rise and fall. People are happy about the economy. People are worried about the economy. People want interest rates to rise. People want interest rates to fall. Europe looks good. Europe looks bad. Canada's raising tariffs. Canada reported extraordinary growth. Company A met its earnings goals. Company B didn't. Inflation numbers looked bad. Inflation numbers looked good. Gold is hot. Silver prices fell. Oil supplies are running low—or high. Unemployment numbers changed too much or too little. Euros went up against the dollar. Who knows?
In the US specifically, lawmakers have constrained the ability of the Fed to provide liquidity to non-bank and foreign financial institutions with dollar-denominated liabilities. And in Europe, the rise of populist parties is making it harder to pursue EU-level reforms and create the institutions necessary to combat the next financial crisis and downturn.
Some recent peer-reviewed research shows that flash crashes are not isolated occurrences, but have occurred quite often. Gao and Mizrach studied US equities over the period of 1993–2011. They show that breakdowns in market quality (such as flash crashes) have occurred in every year they examined and that, apart from the financial crisis, such problems have declined since the introduction of Reg NMS. They also show that 2010, while infamous for the Flash Crash, was not a year with an inordinate number of breakdowns in market quality.[11]
For example, he quotes the very low average household net worth?s of households. Households 45 to 54 have less than $200,000 mean net worth. But when median net worth is taken into account for the same group, the number is closer to $700,000. Doesn't this support current home prices while at the same time highlighting a bigger issue, the widening diversity of haves and have-nots in America? Also, San Diego is presented as the least affordable housing, $379,000 average home vs. $60,000 average income. That's a great fact but does it take into account the large military population that is generally lowly paid but highly transient that may be more renter than buyer in that area? I theorize that these many people are lowering average household income while substantially not trying to purchase homes.
Since the Great Recession, the financial system of the country has somewhat matured, thanks to the introduction of tight regulations including Dodd Frank and Basel III with the sole agenda of preventing bundling of mortgages, and in turn another crisis. While there still are plenty of risky loans today, these are not big enough to cause an economic meltdown.
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