Mass censorship of conservatives and libertarians is exploding. You’ve already seen this with the demonetization and ultimate purge of Infowars and other alternative media outlets by mega-corporations working in tangent to stifle competition. But you are important in this fight. Your voice is important. Your free thought is important. Make no mistake, you are just as important as anyone in the Anti-American establishment.
But Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, lists a number of global disputes coming to a head this fall, including tariffs on imports from China, the potential for auto tariffs on other countries, Iran oil sanctions kicking in, Congress facing another budget deadline and the election in November. "The risk calendar gets quite big this fall," he said. "September is part of it, but it's really the whole fall period."
For example, really big daily price moves should be fairly uncommon, and during normal market periods they are. However, at a period of a crash, a lot of big moves can often be strung over just a few weeks, something called volatility clustering. This means that the models that hold up fairly well in normal markets, just aren’t relevant to a crash. Crashes are something like when a man changes into a werewolf, the normal rules for a human don’t apply. During a crash the stock market becomes a different beast.
Sixth, Europe, too, will experience slower growth, owing to monetary-policy tightening and trade frictions. Moreover, populist policies in countries such as Italy may lead to an unsustainable debt dynamic within the eurozone. The still-unresolved “doom loop” between governments and banks holding public debt will amplify the existential problems of an incomplete monetary union with inadequate risk-sharing. Under these conditions, another global downturn could prompt Italy and other countries to exit the eurozone altogether.
Fourth, other US policies will continue to add stagflationary pressure, prompting the Fed to raise interest rates higher still. The administration is restricting inward/outward investment and technology transfers, which will disrupt supply chains. It is restricting the immigrants who are needed to maintain growth as the US population ages. It is discouraging investments in the green economy. And it has no infrastructure policy to address supply-side bottlenecks.

Last week when we were closing on our house- we were selling-, we were told there was a delay earlier in the day. All house sales and money transactions go through the federal reserve. Luckily it came back up, we sold and “pocketed” our gains in the bank. Now what to do with it!!! I am not sure it is safe in the bank, talking $260,000. We want to move to middle, southern Tn. Living in an apartment till my daughter graduates. Any ideas?
Fifth, growth in the rest of the world will likely slow down – more so as other countries will see fit to retaliate against US protectionism. China must slow its growth to deal with overcapacity and excessive leverage; otherwise a hard landing will be triggered. And already-fragile emerging markets will continue to feel the pinch from protectionism and tightening monetary conditions in the US.

The SEC and CFTC joint 2010 report itself says that "May 6 started as an unusually turbulent day for the markets" and that by the early afternoon "broadly negative market sentiment was already affecting an increase in the price volatility of some individual securities". At 2:32 p.m. (EDT), against a "backdrop of unusually high volatility and thinning liquidity" that day, a large fundamental trader (known to be Waddell & Reed Financial Inc.[23]) "initiated a sell program to sell a total of 75,000 E-Mini S&P contracts (valued at approximately $4.1 billion) as a hedge to an existing equity position". The report says that this was an unusually large position and that the computer algorithm the trader used to trade the position was set to "target an execution rate set to 9% of the trading volume calculated over the previous minute, but without regard to price or time".[41]
Can I guarantee this approach will lead to the best results over the long-term? Of course not. But at least you'll be following a disciplined rational strategy rather than engaging in a never-ending guessing game of trying to decide when to get out of the market (and where to put your money once you do) and then trying to figure out when to get back in. That's a game you can't consistently win.
Hi Gord. Thanks for this informative piece. Its best info I’ve found on the net. I plan to invest in a $250K – $300K property in Ontario without living in it as I am in UAE. Which town of Ontario do you suggest I should invest in to keep my rental income coming, along with chance of property appreciation. Toronto is surely very expensive now so we are think about these towns: Oshawa, Guelp, berries or Milton…what would you do if you had this much of savings and wanted to invest in Ontario Market for 2 years
Everyone seems to have an explanation for why stock prices rise and fall. People are happy about the economy. People are worried about the economy. People want interest rates to rise. People want interest rates to fall. Europe looks good. Europe looks bad. Canada's raising tariffs. Canada reported extraordinary growth. Company A met its earnings goals. Company B didn't. Inflation numbers looked bad. Inflation numbers looked good. Gold is hot. Silver prices fell. Oil supplies are running low—or high. Unemployment numbers changed too much or too little. Euros went up against the dollar. Who knows?
Tulip Mania (in the mid-1630s) is often considered to be the first recorded speculative bubble. Historically, early stock market bubbles and crashes have also their roots in socio-politico-economic activities of the 17th-century Dutch Republic (the birthplace of the world's first formal stock exchange and market),[3][4][5][6][7] the Dutch East India Company (the world's first formally listed public company), and the Dutch West India Company (WIC/GWIC) in particular. As Stringham & Curott (2015) remarked, "Business ventures with multiple shareholders became popular with commenda contracts in medieval Italy (Greif, 2006, p. 286), and Malmendier (2009) provides evidence that shareholder companies date back to ancient Rome. Yet the title of the world's first stock market deservedly goes to that of seventeenth-century Amsterdam, where an active secondary market in company shares emerged. The two major companies were the Dutch East India Company and the Dutch West India Company, founded in 1602 and 1621. Other companies existed, but they were not as large and constituted a small portion of the stock market (Israel [1989] 1991, 109–112; Dehing and 't Hart 1997, 54; de la Vega [1688] 1996, 173)."[8]
"American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance. Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. (The Dow Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions. And don't forget that shareholders received substantial dividends throughout the century as well.)"
Real estate markets could collapse in coastal regions vulnerable to the effects of rising sea levels. The Union of Concerned Scientists predicts that 170 U.S. coastal cities and towns will be “chronically inundated” in 20 years. Another study found that 300,000 coastal properties will be flooded 26 times a year by 2045. The value of that real estate is $136 billion. By 2100, that number will rise to $1 trillion. At most risk are homes in Miami, New York's Long Island, and the San Francisco Bay area.
The latest round of US/China tariffs had been long flagged and both the US increase (10% on US$200 billion of imports from China, but not yet 25%) and China’s less than proportional retaliation (5-10% on US$60 billion of imports) were less than feared. This, along with reports China is planning a broad cut to its tariffs, was positive and leaves scope for negotiations. More significantly, we are still a long way from a full-blown trade war. After implementation of the latest round, only about 12% of US imports will be subject to increased tariffs and the average tariff increase across all imports will be just 1.6% - implying about a 0.2% boost to inflation and a less than 0.2% hit to growth. In China, the economic impact is likely to be less than 0.5% of GDP. This is all a long way from 1930 when the US levied a 20% tariff hike on all imports and other countries did the same making the depression “great”.
The next step that was taken was striving to make reforms in accounts. That implied that the companies now needed to make clearer balance sheets that disclosed more information on the transactions and investments of the company. The companies were asked to make a proper disclosure of all details such as stock options and investments that were made offshore by the companies. This was done to give the investors a better understanding of a company before they actually did invest in a particular company. Since this was not mandatory earlier, the investors couldn’t judge a company properly and invest in nonprofitable ventures which led to losses. Since the conflict of interest of the research firms led to losses, the new rule that was laid was that the investment bankers and the research analysts had to work separately. This was needed to be followed very strictly as there were high penalties charged in case of breach of regulations.
Hey, thanks so much for the reply, Gord. I appreciate it. Yes, I’ve built one property and it’s a top vacation rental in its area. I’ll just have to be smart with the next one, and with looming fears of a recession (whether or not it happens) and stock market volitility, sellers appear to be spooked and dropped the price, so I’ll be able to buy the property for less. Timing might be good.
Stepping back from statistics and the numbers, it's a general perception that stock market crashes are a response to unexpected and severe bad news. That would make sense right? The market is a very sophisticated machine whereby each individual buyer and seller trades on their information and the result is a market price that is, in a sense, smarter than any individual.

Ultimately, if there is a going to be a full-blown collapse of the stock market right now, we would need some sort of “kick off event” in order to make that happen.  It would have to be something on the scale of another 9/11, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, an unprecedented natural disaster, the start of a major war or something else along those lines.
The crash began in Far Eastern markets the morning of October 19 and accelerated in London time, largely because London had closed early on October 16 due to the storm. By 9.30am, the London FTSE100 had fallen over 136 points. Later that morning, two U.S. warships shelled an Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf in response to Iran's Silkworm missile attack on the Sea Isle City.[3][4]
In 1979, Activision became the industry's first third-party developer.[23] It was founded by Atari programmers who left the company because Atari did not allow credits to appear on their games and did not pay employees a royalty based on sales. At the time, Atari was owned by Warner Communications, and the developers felt that they should receive the same recognition that musicians, directors, and actors got from Warner's other divisions. After Activision went into business, Atari quickly sued to block sales of Activision's products, but failed to secure a restraining order and ultimately settled the case in 1982.[24] This court case legitimized third-party development, encouraging companies such as Quaker Oats (with their US Games division) to rush to open video-game divisions, hoping to impress both stockholders and consumers.
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Mass censorship of conservatives and libertarians is exploding. You’ve already seen this with the demonetization and ultimate purge of Infowars and other alternative media outlets by mega-corporations working in tangent to stifle competition. But you are important in this fight. Your voice is important. Your free thought is important. Make no mistake, you are just as important as anyone in the Anti-American establishment.
On Black Monday, the markets were a bit different than today. That’s the explanation that many market optimists like to offer when they explain why another Black Monday can’t happen. That is, the market cannot lose some 23% of its value in a single trading session. They might be right, but in the opposite direction. The markets now have human as well as computer input through so-called robot trading. They have more variables and are more complicated. But information and risks travel much faster. If anything, the risks of a major market crash are higher today.
So, I should go ahead and take that last $15 I have in the bank out?? (better yet ill use it to fill up a gas can) Looks like this isn’t going to end well. The problem is the talking bimbos on the idiot box keep telling the lotus eaters of this world that everything is fine. (And they believe them!!) Have you tried to wake some of these people up to the fact that this will not end well?? My friends all thought I was crazy when I decided to move to the country to an off grid cabin in the woods two years ago, still not 100% ready but at least I don’t have to walk among them. God bless and prep on!
This post delves briefly into the theory and factors involved in market crashes, corrections and selloffs including investor expectations and mood, FED decisions, government meddling and AI systems (Note: even the people who make Artificial intelligence and self-learning algorithms have admitted they don’t understand how the AI systems make decisions. They learn and make decisions independent of human input and may not be  able to report to humans how and why they acted).
The Housing Bellwether Barometer is an index of homebuilders and mortgage companies. In 2017, it skyrocketed like it did in 2004 and 2005. That's according to its creator, Stack Financial Management, who used it to predict the 2008 financial crisis. Similarly, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF has risen 400 percent since March 2009. It outperformed the S&P 500 rise of 270 percent.
"We don't know who is to blame here; it's a little like trying to find what or who is responsible for the dangerous hurricane in Florida today," says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG, a Tokyo-based global bank with offices in New York. "But make no mistake about it, the stock market decline, triggered perhaps by rising bond yields, is just as dangerous."
Some point to the Ontario government’s Places to Grow intensification plan as the major culprit in skyrocketing single detached home prices. Toronto condo prices haven’t risen like house prices have, yet condo demand is usually not spoken much about. It does look like a growing population want house to live in. A growing millennial family would certainly find it tough to live in highrise condos designed for adult living.
A little more than a week later, stocks sank after a tweet from the president challenged the idea that Russia’s missile defense system could shoot down American smart bombs. Investors clearly worry that Trump’s tweeted rhetoric could be taken the wrong way by one or more global leaders, leading to escalation, or even conflict. Should that happen, the stock market could tank.
The housing market experienced modest but steady growth from the period of 1995 to 1999. When the stock market crashed in 2000, there was a shift in dollars going away from the stock market into housing. To further fuel the housing bubble there was plenty of cheap money available for new loans in the wake of the economic recession. The federal reserve and banks praised the housing market for helping to create wealth and provide a secured asset that people could borrow money to help the economy grow. There was a lot of financial innovation at the time which included all sorts of new lending types such as interest adjustable loans, interest-only loans and zero down loans. As people saw housing prices going up, they were stepping over each other to buy to get in on the action. Some were flipping homes in an effort to take advantage of market conditions. If you understand fractional banking, you would know that with a 10% reserve requirement, in theory, it would mean that 10 times that money can be created for each dollar. With 0% down needed to buy new homes, an unlimited supply of money could be created. With each loan, banks would quickly securitize the loan and pass the risk off to someone else. Rating agencies put AAA ratings on these loans that made them highly desirable to foreign investors and pension funds. The total amount of derivatives held by the financial institutions exploded and the total % cash reserves grew smaller and smaller. In large areas of CA and FL, there were multiple years of prices going up 20% per year. Some markets like Las Vegas saw the housing market climb up 40% in just one year. In California, over ½ of the new loans were interest only or negative-amortization. From 2003 to 2007 the number of subprime loans had increased a whopping 292% from 332 billion to 1.3 trillion.
Trying to time a market crash or correction is pretty much impossible, and trying to estimate how much will be lost in that crash is even more difficult. If you had listened to David Haggith’s  doom and gloom warnings back in 2012, you would have missed out on one of the greatest bull runs in history. You also have to realise that permabear “experts” such as Marc Faber exist and that they will constantly make predictions about how the next big market crash is just seconds away. To sum it up: Nobody really knows when it’s going to happen or if it’s worth staying on the sidelines while the market continues to grow upwards. Well, everyone except me of course. I’m 100% certain that a market crash is going to happen in 2018.
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