However, independent studies published in 2013 strongly disputed the last claim.[52][53][54] In particular, in 2011 Andersen and Bondarenko conducted a comprehensive investigation of the two main versions of VPIN used by its creators, one based on the standard tick-rule (or TR-VPIN)[50][55][56] and the other based on Bulk Volume Classification (or BVC-VPIN).[57] They find that the value of TR-VPIN (BVC-VPIN) one hour before the crash "was surpassed on 71 (189) preceding days, constituting 11.7% (31.2%) of the pre-crash sample". Similarly, the value of TR-VPIN (BVC-VPIN) at the start of the crash was "topped on 26 (49) preceding days, or 4.3% (8.1%) of the pre-crash sample."[53]
Indeed, Buffett's ability to tune out the noise and remain optimistic amid these downturns has played a vital role in his unrivaled performance over decades. Between 1965 and the end of 2017, Berkshire's market value has increased at an annualized rate of 20.9%, more than doubling the S&P 500's average annual growth of 9.9% during this same period. This 20.9% annualized growth rate for Berkshire's market value translates to a total return of 2,404,748%, obliterating the S&P 500's 15,508% gain during the same timeframe.
If we, in short order, enter into a recession it will be directly related to the bail outs and QE put in place under Obama’s watch. They did what they thought was best, but much of the benefit of all this asset inflation has not gone to the average person and it has put us in uncharted territory as we begin to embark on an unwinding journey in the Fall.
That's a short term shock which makes a lot of people catch their breath. When a country as big as China has a short term shock (even in stocks), a lot of people in other countries get nervous. It's not just stocks, either; the price of oil has dropped dramatically in recent months—good for a lot of people who consume oil (airlines, transportation, individuals), but bad for people who produce oil (oil-rich countries, petrochemical refineries).
India as we know is importer of Crude oil(Petrol, diesel). One of biggest country that supply crude to India is Iran . United States had put a lot of sanctions on Iran owing which India is facing difficulty in procuring crude from Iran. Since the demand of crude is intact and supply has been reduced globally , the price of brent crude has sky rocketed touching 80$ per barrel.
Based on interviews and our own independent matching of the 6,438 W&R executions to the 147,577 CME executions during that time, we know for certain that the algorithm used by W&R never took nor required liquidity. It always posted sell orders above the market and waited for a buyer; it never crossed the bid/ask spread. That means that none of the 6,438 trades were executed by hitting a bid. [...] [S]tatements from page 36 of Kirilenko's paper[4] cast serious doubt on the credibility of their analysis. [...] It is widely believed that the "sell program" refers to the algo selling the W&R contracts. However, based on the statements above, this cannot be true. The sell program must be referring to a different algo, or Kirilenko's analysis is fundamentally flawed, because the paper incorrectly identifies trades that hit the bid as executions by the W&R algo.
Hi Tamara, a vacation rental property owner in San Diego County I knew did well during the recession. Prices are much higher now and you’ll need to be a very good rental property manager. Take a look at the San Diego Housing market report if you didn’t read it. San Diego’s fantastic and the shortage there will never ease. My opinion is that you need to be a good marketer to keep it rented. If you build up a good database of returning renters, you should be okay. With VRBO and Airbnb, you’ll have extra reach too. With Trump bringing jobs and investment money back home, I can’t see a recession, just volatility and maybe some trade wars!
Deanna, yes I did read and write about it actually. It’s horrible for Californians. Brown’s lack of hope, imagination, and entrepreneurialism reflects what’s happened in the US in the last 30 years. If it doesn’t benefit the multinationals, you’ll see neglect, and “water opportunity” is just scorned. Whoever solves California’s water problem will be a Trillionaire many times over!
The difficulty in getting a mortgage combined with extremely high student debt strapping down the millennial generation continues to nudge people toward renting. Americans don’t have the savings they used to have that allowed them to put a down payment on a home. Historically, the average savings rate of a person’s income was 8.3 percent, but today that number is 5.5 percent. Rising education and housing costs continue to burden the new generation of potential home buyers, driving down home ownership rates in the U.S.
During this growth boom, the SEC found it increasingly difficult to prevent shady IPOs and conglomerates from proliferating. In early 1987, the SEC conducted numerous investigations of illegal insider trading, which created a wary stance among many investors. At the same time, inflation and overheating became a concern due to the high rate of economic and credit growth. The Federal Reserve rapidly raised short term interest rates to temper inflation, which dampened some of stock investors’ enthusiasm. Many institutional trading firms began to utilize portfolio insurance to protect against further stock dips. Portfolio insurance is a hedging strategy that uses stock index futures to cushion equity portfolios against broad stock market declines. As interest rates rose, many institutional money managers scrambled to hedge their portfolios at the same time. On October 19th 1987, the stock index futures market was flooded with billions of dollars worth of sell orders within minutes, causing both the futures and stock markets to crash. In addition, many common stock investors attempted to sell simultaneously, which completely overwhelmed the stock market.

Although this latest round of fiscal and monetary stimulus has not had the anticipated economic effect to date, it has produced a negative effect on the Chinese yuan. Leaving some to wonder if China is finally losing control over its currency. In August 2015, an unexpected devaluation in the yuan led to a capital flight as Chinese companies, citizens and investors sought to protect themselves from further declines in the currency. If the yuan weakens too quickly again—either naturally or by another planned devaluation—this would add even more chaos to the already fragile global markets.
In the US specifically, lawmakers have constrained the ability of the Fed to provide liquidity to non-bank and foreign financial institutions with dollar-denominated liabilities. And in Europe, the rise of populist parties is making it harder to pursue EU-level reforms and create the institutions necessary to combat the next financial crisis and downturn.
Despite the measures to ensure stability in the cryptocurrency market, it's still a struggle to stop or at least reduce cryptocurrencies' volatility. There are still so many factors keeping them volatile. These include: the currencies' lack of intrinsic value, the lack of institutional capital, the implementation of regulations and thin-order books, among other factors.

The financial crisis ripped through Wall Street 10 years ago, pushing the global economy to the edge of the abyss. One might think those searing experiences would have created a learning opportunity — for managing risk better, understanding structural imbalances in the financial markets, even learning a bit about how our own cognitive processes malfunction.
"We don't know who is to blame here; it's a little like trying to find what or who is responsible for the dangerous hurricane in Florida today," says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG, a Tokyo-based global bank with offices in New York. "But make no mistake about it, the stock market decline, triggered perhaps by rising bond yields, is just as dangerous."

Economic effects of the September 11 attacks (2001) Stock market downturn of 2002 Chinese stock bubble of 2007 United States bear market of 2007–09 Financial crisis of 2007–08 Dubai debt standstill European debt crisis 2010 Flash Crash 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami (Aftermath) August 2011 stock markets fall 2011 Bangladesh share market scam 2015–16 Chinese stock market turbulence 2015–16 stock market crash 2016 United Kingdom EU referendum (Aftermath) 2018 Cryptocurrency crash
“Do you remember how fragile the world seemed in 2008 when banks were collapsing and the stock market was in free fall? When you pictured the future, did it seem dark and dangerous? Or did it seem like the good times were just around the corner and the party was about to begin? The fact is, once a bear market ends, the following 12 months can see crucial market gains.”

Obviously, some prediction of the market's downfall is going to turn out to be right. The market will go into a major slump again at some point. After all, since 1929 we've suffered through 20 bear markets where stock prices have fallen 20% or more, and even before the current turbulence, we've endured 26 corrections of at least 10% but less than 20%. But it's impossible to know in advance whether heightened volatility or even a decline that appears to gathering momentum will turn out to be The Next Big One.

September is also when the Fed is next expected to raise interest rates, and its post-meeting statement Sept. 26 and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could signal how strongly the Fed views its forecast for a December hike. David Ader, chief macro strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence, said Powell was not as dovish at Jackson Hole last week as some may have thought.
Accolade achieved a technical victory in one court case against Sega, challenging this control, even though it ultimately yielded and signed the Sega licensing agreement. Several publishers, notably Tengen (Atari), Color Dreams, and Camerica, challenged Nintendo's control system during the 8-bit era by producing unlicensed NES games. The concepts of such a control system remain in use on every major video game console produced today, even with fewer "cartridge-based" consoles on the market than in the 8/16-bit era. Replacing the security chips in most modern consoles are specially encoded optical discs that cannot be copied by most users and can only be read by a particular console under normal circumstances.

A better measure of the inadequacy of the current mélange of IT antiquities is that the SEC/CFTC report on the May 6 crash was released on September 30, 2010. Taking nearly five months to analyze the wildest ever five minutes of market data is unacceptable. CFTC Chair Gensler specifically blamed the delay on the “enormous” effort to collect and analyze data. What an enormous mess it is.
When markets are very volatile, the overall trend tends to be down.  So what investors should be hoping for are extremely boring days on Wall Street when not much happens.  That has been the usual state of affairs for much of the past decade, but now volatility has returned with a vengeance.  The following is how CNBC summarized the carnage that we witnessed on Friday…
Deanna, yes I did read and write about it actually. It’s horrible for Californians. Brown’s lack of hope, imagination, and entrepreneurialism reflects what’s happened in the US in the last 30 years. If it doesn’t benefit the multinationals, you’ll see neglect, and “water opportunity” is just scorned. Whoever solves California’s water problem will be a Trillionaire many times over!
“Investing is the attempt to make a financial killing, in other words, bigger profits and less work. Why else would anyone with their head on straignt want to make a profit on the backs of others? Thousands of years ago it was determined by one nation that debts should be forgiven every 7 years. Lending money with large interest rates was unfair. It’s in Egyptian and Abrahamic history.”
A stock market bubble inflates and explodes when investors, acting in a herd mentality, tend to buy stocks en masse, leading to inflated and unrealistically high market prices. In describing market bubbles, former U.S. Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan referred to investors' "irrational exuberance" on the stock market in 1996, although his prophecy didn't really ring true, as the stock market continued to grow before entering into bear market territory in 2000. A stock market bubble's "pop" is often a signal that the stock market is experiencing a crash over the short-term, and is shifting from bull-to-bear-market mode over the long-term.
“One of the lessons that we all learned over and over again is try to cut through the noise and get to the fundamental driver of the stock market,” said Rich Weiss, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager of multi-asset strategies at American Century Investments. “And the major driver has been, is, and will continue to be the strength of our economy.”
Selling your home in 2018?  Should you sell your home and upgrade to a roomier one? Or perhaps you’ll be downsizing to a condo?  Condo sales boomed in 2017 and you’ll be competing hard for anything under $600k. Your Realtor will likely have to work a sophisticated marketing strategy to help you get your house sold and get you moved into a better one.
You might be wondering if we’ve endured one too many ghost apparitions. To suggest that no less than Warren Buffett, whose net worth is north of $80.0 billion, expects the market to reverse its bullish course seems not just scary, it seems silly. But Warren Buffett’s predictions for 2018 call for at least a market correction—if not an outright crash.
Fifth, growth in the rest of the world will likely slow down – more so as other countries will see fit to retaliate against US protectionism. China must slow its growth to deal with overcapacity and excessive leverage; otherwise a hard landing will be triggered. And already-fragile emerging markets will continue to feel the pinch from protectionism and tightening monetary conditions in the US.
But if U.S. GDP growth were to falter -- let’s say dip to 1% or lower on an annual basis -- then it would be really difficult to support existing valuations for companies in the technology and biotech arenas. And since tech and biotech have played such a critical role over the past nine-plus years in pushing stocks higher, they could easily be responsible for dragging the stock market into a correction.
As longtime China watchers know, the country’s still-immature markets are in many ways more bubble-prone than their Western counterparts, thanks to heavy involvement from retail investors who often take cues from government policy, rather than quaint notions like earnings. Tanking Chinese stocks—the Shanghai Composite is now down nearly 25% from its January peak—could therefore be taken...
So, when will the stock market crash again? There is no way to accurately predict a bear market. The FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) have led the bull market over the last 9 years. If these stocks fail to keep their earnings momentum going, investors may lose confidence in the market. So far only Facebook and Netflix have disappointed investors, while Apple remains as strong as ever.
The 1987 Crash was a worldwide phenomenon. The FTSE 100 Index lost 10.8% on that Monday and a further 12.2% the following day. In the month of October, all major world markets declined substantially. The least affected was Austria (a fall of 11.4%) while the most affected was Hong Kong with a drop of 45.8%. Out of 23 major industrial countries, 19 had a decline greater than 20%.[28]
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigation concluded that Sarao "was at least significantly responsible for the order imbalances" in the derivatives market which affected stock markets and exacerbated the flash crash.[10] Sarao began his alleged market manipulation in 2009 with commercially available trading software whose code he modified "so he could rapidly place and cancel orders automatically."[10] Traders Magazine journalist, John Bates, argued that blaming a 36-year-old small-time trader who worked from his parents' modest stucco house in suburban west London[10] for sparking a trillion-dollar stock market crash is a little bit like blaming lightning for starting a fire" and that the investigation was lengthened because regulators used "bicycles to try and catch Ferraris." Furthermore, he concluded that by April 2015, traders can still manipulate and impact markets in spite of regulators and banks' new, improved monitoring of automated trade systems.[3]
The economy had been growing for most of the Roaring Twenties. It was a technological golden age, as innovations such as the radio, automobile, aviation, telephone, and the power grid were deployed and adopted. Companies that had pioneered these advances, like Radio Corporation of America (RCA) and General Motors, saw their stocks soar. Financial corporations also did well, as Wall Street bankers floated mutual fund companies (then known as investment trusts) like the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation. Investors were infatuated with the returns available in the stock market, especially by the use of leverage through margin debt.
After Black Monday, regulators overhauled trade-clearing protocols to bring uniformity to all prominent market products. They also developed new rules, known as "trading curbs" or colloquially as circuit breakers, allowing exchanges to temporarily halt trading in instances of exceptionally large price declines in some indexes; for instance, the DJIA.[15]
One mitigation strategy has been the introduction of trading curbs, also known as "circuit breakers", which are a trading halt in the cash market and the corresponding trading halt in the derivative markets triggered by the halt in the cash market, all of which are affected based on substantial movements in a broad market indicator. Since their inception, circuit breakers have been modified to prevent both speculative gains and dramatic losses within a small time frame.[43]

The effect was worse in the United Kingdom, particularly on the London Stock Exchange's FT 30, which lost 73% of its value during the crash.[4] From a rate of 5.1% real GDP growth in 1972, the UK went into recession in 1974, with GDP falling by 1.1%.[1] At the time, the UK's property market was going through a major crisis, and a secondary banking crisis forced the Bank of England to bail out a number of lenders.[5] In the United Kingdom, the crash ended after the rent freeze was lifted on 19 December 1974, allowing a readjustment of property prices; over the following year, stock prices rose by 150%. The definitive market low for the FT30 Index (a forerunner of the FTSE100 today) came on 6 January 1975, when the index closed at 146 (having reached a nadir of 145.8 intra-day). The market then practically doubled in just over 3 months.[5] However, unlike in the United States, inflation continued to rise, to 25% in 1975, giving way to the era of stagflation. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index also fell from 1,800 in early 1973 to close to 300.[6]
The May 6, 2010, Flash Crash,[1][2] also known as the Crash of 2:45, the 2010 Flash Crash or simply the Flash Crash, was a United States trillion-dollar[3] stock market crash, which started at 2:32 p.m. EDT and lasted for approximately 36 minutes.[4]:1 Stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite, collapsed and rebounded very rapidly.[4] The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its second biggest intraday point drop (from the opening) up to that point,[4] plunging 998.5 points (about 9%), most within minutes, only to recover a large part of the loss.[5][6] It was also the second-largest intraday point swing (difference between intraday high and intraday low) up to that point, at 1,010.14 points.[4][5][7][8] The prices of stocks, stock index futures, options and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were volatile, thus trading volume spiked.[4]:3 A CFTC 2014 report described it as one of the most turbulent periods in the history of financial markets.[4]:1
The Toronto situation is similar to Vancouver’s housing market where prices have really plummeted (43%). With the resolution of trade with the US, it appears no Toronto housing crash is imminent, and prices will return to their upward climb.  Inevitably, high interest rates and Canada’s lack of competitiveness will create a new crisis. New listings will likely drop as homeowners feel more comfortable with their employment outlook, and enjoy the housing price rise.
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Most importantly, China’s debt binge was taken up in record time; soaring by over 2,000% in the past 18 years. And this earth shattering debt spree wasn’t used to generate productive assets. Rather, it was the non-productive, state-directed variety, which now requires a constant stream of new debt to pay off the maturing debt. Therefore, the schizophrenic communist party is caught between the absolute need to deleverage the economy; and at the same time, trying to maintain the growth mirage with additional stimulus measures.
Prolonging the good times into September will require navigating a calendar full of pitfalls. Of primary concern are emerging markets, where currency and other assets are weakening and some say contagion will worsen. The big risk is on the trade front with President Donald Trump said to want to move ahead with a plan to impose tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports as soon as next week.
Filia pointed to the increasing frequency of value-at-risk shocks, or swift market corrections, as an indication of fragility for global markets. The report cited as evidence the VIX volatility index spike in February, the Turkish lira's dramatic drop in recent months, and Italy's roller-coaster bond price moves, among other examples, as early warning signals for "system instability of the broader financial network."
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