"Charlie and I view the marketable common stocks that Berkshire owns as interests in businesses, not as ticker symbols to be bought or sold based on their 'chart' patterns, the 'target' prices of analysts or the opinions of media pundits. Instead, we simply believe that if the businesses of the investees are successful (as we believe most will be) our investments will be successful as well."
The following day, Black Tuesday, was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The Dow fell 30.57 points to close at 230.07 on that day. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23% – from Wikipedia
As you can see from the numbers Dennis has on the housing market, things are much better than they were before the last crash. Lending guidelines are much tougher no matter what you hear. I see posts on Facebook all the time about how people can get low-money-down loans now, and that means the housing crash is coming. Low-money-down loans have been available for decades, and that is not what caused the housing crash. Really bad loans to people who should not buy houses is what caused the housing crisis. Those loans do not exist anymore, as you can see by the data Dennis provided. Yes, it is possible to get a loan with less than a 600 credit score, but very few people are actually getting those loans. When you look at the housing market, you need to look at the real numbers of how many houses are being built, what kind of loans people are getting, and how much house people can afford. Houses are not being built like they were before. The loans people are getting are much higher quality, and the market is much more stable than it was before.
Some experts cite the euphoria of stock markets during their bull runs. They suggest the heightened unrealistic expectations create a platform for disaster and when reality strikes, truth launches panicked sell offs. Some say the overvalued stocks, economy, and general optimism present right is a sure predecessor of a crash. It may have been that way in 1987.
If you have any doubts do a few minutes of research and to find out how much the total amount of ALL the sub-prime mortgages were at the time of the crash and the government bailout. This is the proof in the pudding. When the government spent money to bail out the banks, they spent literally more than 5 times the total amount of every single sub-prime mortgage in America. That is, if the sub prime mortgages themselves were the problem at all, they could have simply paid off every single one complete and solved the problem for one/fifth the cost.
But if U.S. GDP growth were to falter -- let’s say dip to 1% or lower on an annual basis -- then it would be really difficult to support existing valuations for companies in the technology and biotech arenas. And since tech and biotech have played such a critical role over the past nine-plus years in pushing stocks higher, they could easily be responsible for dragging the stock market into a correction.
It is well documented that prices tend to go up faster before a crash. This may seem counter-intuitive, but it makes sense in terms of “rational expectations.” For investors to remain invested in a market that is becoming more risky, prices have to rise faster in order to compensate for the growing probability of a crash. Otherwise, people would exit the market earlier and a bubble would never form.
Lana, a lot of people are talking housing crash in many markets, but that could take the whole economy down. Even with a crash, it would still be tough for buyers. The right approach to bring prices down is more housing supply. The governments should provide tax breaks and other incentives for housing development and legislation which promotes new housing projects. Good finding a place you can afford.
The last week of January 2018 and the first week of February 2018, the Dow Jones dropped several hundred points. It looks to close out February 2 down hundreds of points, with other indexes (S&P 500, NASDAQ) to follow. While this may seem like a crisis, it is more than likely to reflect short-term investors taking their profits (in the long run up to this point) and shuffling them to other types of investments to prepare for improved bond yields.
Of course, that's an average and the market's return is seldom steady and predictable. Yet, it's important to remember that these attractive returns include many periods when the markets have lost a quarter or half their value, or worse. As a result, even if you know a crash is coming at some point, which it very likely is at some point in the coming years, then it's not a reason to avoid stocks. Provided you can stick with it you'll likely see decent returns from diversified global stocks even including the catastrophic crashes that scare you.