“My sense is that the bottom that we were unable to find, chances are that we have found it. Often things tend to panic and sell of, unless it’s a black swan event My sense is that whatever information is there is not so serious; may be a couple of stocks may remain dicey but overall if there is no systemic risk, what we are doing is we are buying back nifty now; because it’s not like the whole world is coming to an end May be there is a problem; it can be contained; but once the news is out that news is irrelevant. Given that we are now near the 200-DMA, we could now have that sustainable rally. There is no value in worrying about what’s gone wrong. Try to buy because prices tend to factor in most things. My sense is that by the close we should recover some more Buy the good quality NBFCs, such as Bajaj Finance, L&T finance I would be a buyer now that the fall is already over,” investment advisor Ashwini Gujral told CNBC TV18.
“One of the lessons that we all learned over and over again is try to cut through the noise and get to the fundamental driver of the stock market,” said Rich Weiss, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager of multi-asset strategies at American Century Investments. “And the major driver has been, is, and will continue to be the strength of our economy.”

Perhaps the likeliest reason for the next stock market crash could be an escalating trade spat between the United States and China. After the U.S. initially placed tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, China retaliated with tariffs of its own on an equal value of imported U.S. goods. Now the two sides are threatening to one-up the other with tariffs.


Moreover, the leverage in many emerging markets and some advanced economies is clearly excessive. Commercial and residential real estate is far too expensive in many parts of the world. The emerging-market correction in equities, commodities, and fixed-income holdings will continue as global storm clouds gather. And as forward-looking investors start anticipating a growth slowdown in 2020, markets will reprice risky assets by 2019.

Our tail-hedged portfolio consists of S&P 500 and out-of-the-money put options (specifically one delta which has a strike roughly 30% to 35% below spot) on the S&P 500. At the beginning of every calendar month, using actual option prices, the number of third-month options (with a maturity from 11 to 12 weeks, and also carrying over the payoff from unexpired options) is determined such that the tail-hedged portfolio breaks even for a down 20% move in the S&P 500 over a month. From practice, for scaling the payoff, we can safely assume the S&P 500 options’ implied volatility, or IVol, surface would look similar to the one observed after the lows of the October 2002 crash.
As we mark the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are still ongoing debates about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis, and whether the lessons needed to prepare for the next one have been absorbed. But looking ahead, the more relevant question is what actually will trigger the next global recession and crisis, and when.
Tulip Mania (in the mid-1630s) is often considered to be the first recorded speculative bubble. Historically, early stock market bubbles and crashes have also their roots in socio-politico-economic activities of the 17th-century Dutch Republic (the birthplace of the world's first formal stock exchange and market),[3][4][5][6][7] the Dutch East India Company (the world's first formally listed public company), and the Dutch West India Company (WIC/GWIC) in particular. As Stringham & Curott (2015) remarked, "Business ventures with multiple shareholders became popular with commenda contracts in medieval Italy (Greif, 2006, p. 286), and Malmendier (2009) provides evidence that shareholder companies date back to ancient Rome. Yet the title of the world's first stock market deservedly goes to that of seventeenth-century Amsterdam, where an active secondary market in company shares emerged. The two major companies were the Dutch East India Company and the Dutch West India Company, founded in 1602 and 1621. Other companies existed, but they were not as large and constituted a small portion of the stock market (Israel [1989] 1991, 109–112; Dehing and 't Hart 1997, 54; de la Vega [1688] 1996, 173)."[8]
The stimulus provided thus far has managed to expand the amount of money in circulation, M2—a measure of the money supply that includes cash and most deposits—to 8.5% this year, from 8.1% last year. Yet, even with a large growth in the money supply, China has not been able to achieve its desired rate of growth because it is weighed down by its legacy of debt.

While some areas such as the 905 have seen big drops, (houses are sitting and have to be rented now) areas in Toronto have maintained prices.  These neighbourhoods offer a more reliable bet for sustainable property investment value. Many property investors have discovered the hard way, what the word sustainable means in bottom line dollar terms. Because of demand, two hot areas right now are rental property investment and student housing investment.

You stated a few things that can cause a housing crash, High taxes and high utilities. The democrats of CA just passed three bills.. First bill was to increase our gas and registration tax. Second. bill PG&E was given the ok to charge its customers more to pay off their lawsuits from the 2018 fires it has caused, and third which is the grand finale is putting a fine, or I say another tax, on residential home water usage. the current bill brown is expected to sign will limit 55 gallons of water per person per day by 2030 then it will decrease to 50 gallons per person per day. as you know it takes roughly 17 gallons of water to take a 8 min shower. 80-100 gallons to take a bath, 4 gallons to flush the toilet, etc… so 55 or even 50 gallons of water daily is an impossible task and the democrats know it and using the water skirts to tax us yet again by fining us if we overuse our water usage.. this strategy is smart and sneaky. they are taxing on things we have no choice but to pay and cannot fight against.

Jump up ^ Coleco Presents The Adam Computer System. May 3, 2016 [1983-09-28]. Event occurs at 44:30. Archived from the original on January 3, 2017. We're doing that with five new television commercials, which have just been completed, and which will be shown in conjunction with the Adam launch date. These commercials are each directed to our target audience, which is composed of our friendly neighborhood children, boys age 8 to 16 and their fathers. We believe those are the two groups that really fuel computer purchases, [boos] and we've directed right at 'em [more boos] - oh, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. Women, we've a commercial for you, trust me, but the key point is that our research, which is consumer research, directed that thought [inaudible] from the research, and we've directed our commercials at that target user group.


The US Fed meets on September 26th but the CME Fed tool is already indicating a probability of 95% for a rate hike by the Fed. That is not good news for the Indian markets. It will impel the RBI to front end another rate hike to prevent any risk of capital market outflows. Also higher Fed rates will lead to a stronger dollar and that by itself will put pressure on the INR, which is already vulnerable at this point of time.
Jump up ^ Lambert, Richard (July 19, 2008). "Crashes, Bangs & Wallops". Financial Times. Retrieved September 30, 2008. At the turn of the 20th century stock market speculation was restricted to professionals, but the 1920s saw millions of 'ordinary Americans' investing in the New York Stock Exchange. By August 1929, brokers had lent small investors more than two-thirds of the face value of the stocks they were buying on margin – more than $8.5bn was out on loan.

Over time, we can correlate historical trends in the stock market to the global business cycle. When times are good, stocks as a whole tend to go up—bull markets. When times are bad, stocks as a whole tend to go down—bear markets. This doesn't predict the behavior of any individual company's stock over time, however, nor does it suggest what any stock will do on any given day.
3. They also found, to the surprise of some readers I’m sure, “that some widely cited economic variables displayed an unexpected, counterintuitive correlation with future returns. The ratio of govern- ment debt to GDP is an example: Although its R2makes it seem a better performer than others, the reason is actually opposite to what one would expect—the government debt/GDP ratio has had a positive relationship with the long-term realized return. In other words, higher government debt levels have been associated with higher future stock returns, at least in the United States since 1926″.

These stocks are known as high beta stocks, as they outperform on the way up and underperform on the way down. During a bull market, these high beta stocks are often the stocks that perform best. As a result they will grow into the largest positions in your portfolio. That’s why it’s a good idea to rebalance your portfolio and make sure the weighting of these “high beta” stocks aren’t too high. Here some more ways to prepare for a stock market crash:
On October 24, many of the world's stock exchanges experienced the worst declines in their history, with drops of around 10% in most indices.[38] In the US, the DJIA fell 3.6%, i.e. not as much as other markets.[39] Instead, both the US dollar and Japanese yen soared against other major currencies, particularly the British pound and Canadian dollar, as world investors sought safe havens. Later that day, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, Charles Bean, suggested that "This is a once in a lifetime crisis, and possibly the largest financial crisis of its kind in human history."[40]
As you can see, there is more to preparing for a market crash than making a stock market crash prediction. “Experts” predict crashes all the time, and most of the time they get it wrong. If you listen to all these crash predictions, you will end up losing out on the upside. And yet, you should never be in a position where a crash will wipe out your portfolio or brokerage account. To prepare for a crash, you should make sure your portfolio is diversified, and that you don’t have too much of it allocated to high beta and growth stocks.
In Professor Sornette’s model, a bubble is a market heading to a critical point. But a crash is not the only possible post-crisis outcome: Prices can also stop rising and reach a higher plateau. It is precisely because of the small but real probability that a bubble will not crash but simply stop growing that it is rational for some investors to stay in the market, even when if they think that it has gone too far, too fast.
Stock markets dropped today as trading closed with the DOW down 500 points more. The NASDAQ fell a further 70 points and and S&P about 30 points. There’s a lot of guessing as to what’s happening such as pessimistic earnings season reports, China trade worries, and multinational corporate performance (cheap labor market access) in doubt going forward as 2019 nears.

The following day, Black Tuesday, was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The Dow fell 30.57 points to close at 230.07 on that day. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23%.
Everyone seems to have an explanation for why stock prices rise and fall. People are happy about the economy. People are worried about the economy. People want interest rates to rise. People want interest rates to fall. Europe looks good. Europe looks bad. Canada's raising tariffs. Canada reported extraordinary growth. Company A met its earnings goals. Company B didn't. Inflation numbers looked bad. Inflation numbers looked good. Gold is hot. Silver prices fell. Oil supplies are running low—or high. Unemployment numbers changed too much or too little. Euros went up against the dollar. Who knows?
You are obviously a banker of some sort. The bankers and the bank owners are fucking greedy bastards. PERIOD. Look at the situation. They make billions but cant provide benefits. It is the obligation of owners and investors to provide for workers. Its is supposed to work that way. But they and you KEEP it all and give the people swill. You al suck and have been compared to serial killers on a psychological level.. Stop defending the indefensible! you bought the bailout in 08 and the took bonuses for causing it. You put people and kids in th street then went sailing. So fuck you and your bastard cronies!!!!!
Some of this volatility reflects the uncertainty that switching the White House between two major parties always provides, but it also demonstrates how global markets see a Trump administration as unpredictable, unmoored, and even dangerous. Investors seeking safer investments turned to the stability of bonds, precious metals, and even cash while they wait to see what will come.

A popular explanation for the 1987 crash was computerized selling dictated by portfolio insurance hedges.[11] However, economist Dean Furbush pointed out that the biggest price drops occurred during light trading volume.[12] In program trading, computers execute rapid stock trades based on external inputs, such as the price of related securities. Common strategies implemented by program trading involve an attempt to engage in arbitrage and portfolio insurance strategies. As computer technology became widespread, program trading grew dramatically within Wall Street firms. After the crash, many blamed program trading strategies for blindly selling stocks as markets fell, exacerbating the decline. Some economists theorized that the speculative boom leading up to October was caused by program trading, and that the crash was merely a return to normalcy. Either way, program trading ended up taking the majority of the blame in the public eye for the 1987 stock market crash. U.S. Congressman Edward J. Markey, who had been warning about the possibility of a crash, stated that "Program trading was the principal cause."[13]

It looks like it could be another tough week for global financial markets.  As the week began, markets were down all over the world, and relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia have taken a sudden turn for the worse.  That could potentially mean much, much higher oil prices, and needless to say that would be a very bad thing for the U.S. economy.  It has really surprised many of us how dramatically events have begun to accelerate here in the month of October, and the mood on Wall Street has taken a decidedly negative turn.  Yes, U.S. stocks did bounce back a bit on Friday (as I correctly anticipated), but it was much less of a bounce than many investors were hoping for.  And this week got off to a rough start with all of the major markets in Asia down significantly…

Watched CNN and CNBC for first time in years today. Then went over to Fox for a bit.. Very little info on world market crash today.. It is stunning how information is being skewed to the masses. All they were really talking about was Trump and HilLary, and oh yes those brave American terrorist beaters. The depth of denial in our country is breathtaking. I feel like I am living in an alternate reality, the world is crashing around our ears and very few seem to give a rats ass, unbelievable. Went and had two of my rifles bore sighted , zeroing them agian at range tomorrow. Bought 500.00 of emergency food, and ordered a good solar watch I have been looking at.Picking up extra 1000 rounds of Ar, and 250 rounds for my 308. Feel like I have very little time to finish preps. I also ordered a cast iron wood stove and am picking up 4 cords of wood this weekend. I hate feeling this paranoid but damn how can one take a sane look at our world and not be. God bless and protect you all in the coming weeks.
A second, highly visible result of the crash was the advancement of measures to control third-party development of software. Using secrecy to combat industrial espionage had failed to stop rival companies from reverse engineering the Mattel and Atari systems and hiring away their trained game programmers. While Mattel and Coleco implemented lockout measures to control third-party development (the ColecoVision BIOS checked for a copyright string on power-up), the Atari 2600 was completely unprotected and once information on its hardware became available, little prevented anyone from making games for the system. Nintendo thus instituted a strict licensing policy for the NES that included equipping the cartridge and console with lockout chips, which were region-specific, and had to match in order for a game to work. In addition to preventing the use of unlicensed games, it also was designed to combat software piracy, rarely a problem in the United States or Western Europe, but rampant in East Asia.[citation needed]
No expert prediction or technical indicator is necessary. The makings of the next crash are already clear. Whether it’s Janet Yellen or Jerome Powell who will head the Federal Reserve after February 2018, interest rates can only move higher. At the current rate of debt, even 100 basis points (one percent) higher interest will mean $200.0 billion in additional (not all, mind you, just the extra bit) in debt.
On September 16, 2008, failures of massive financial institutions in the United States, due primarily to exposure to packaged subprime loans and credit default swaps issued to insure these loans and their issuers, rapidly devolved into a global crisis. This resulted in a number of bank failures in Europe and sharp reductions in the value of stocks and commodities worldwide. The failure of banks in Iceland resulted in a devaluation of the Icelandic króna and threatened the government with bankruptcy. Iceland obtained an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund in November.[31] In the United States, 15 banks failed in 2008, while several others were rescued through government intervention or acquisitions by other banks.[32] On October 11, 2008, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the world financial system was teetering on the "brink of systemic meltdown".[33]
There are some people on this comment section who are so suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome that they fail to see that Trump is the best thing our economy has seen since Ronald Reagan. Trump has been responsible for putting trillions of dollars to work in all of the important markets, such as the stock market and real estate. Economic growth has never been so high in the last twenty years, and unemployment is at record low levels. If certain commentators can get over TDS, perhaps they can see that the problems will occur if Democrats get elected. All the dems promise is higher taxes and more regulation, which means lower economic growth and lower values. However, it is not clear that even Trump can overcome rising interest rates. Over the years we have found that you cannot fight with the Fed. The fed can dominate other economic forces.
The sandpile study was introduced in a 1987 paper by Per Bak, Chao Tang and Kurt Wiesenfeld, three scientists working at the Physics Department at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. Ironically, the paper was presented to Physical Review Letters a few months before the stock market crash of October 1987, still today the largest ever one-day drop. The title was "Self-Organized Criticality" and falls within a branch of mathematics known as Complexity Theory, which studies how systems can organize themselves into unexpected behaviors arising from the interaction of its smallest and seemingly independent components.
"If I'm going to rank the risks this fall, trade wars are one. Iran oil sanctions are two, then the European crisis is three. You have the Italian budget, due at the end of September, which is a very contentious thing, where the government promised a budget the European Commission is very likely to reject," said Harris. "I think you've already seen a foretaste with the Italian bond yields spiking up and staying higher."
No expert prediction or technical indicator is necessary. The makings of the next crash are already clear. Whether it’s Janet Yellen or Jerome Powell who will head the Federal Reserve after February 2018, interest rates can only move higher. At the current rate of debt, even 100 basis points (one percent) higher interest will mean $200.0 billion in additional (not all, mind you, just the extra bit) in debt.
A bear market evolves, often after a stock market crash, when investors grow pessimistic about the stock market, and as share prices fall as supply begins to outpace demand. Economists usually refer to a bear market as the result of the stock market losing 20% of its value over a 52-week period. They usually last about four years, although many don't last even that long. Historically, bear markets are a great time to buy stocks, as prices are low and value is high, and that's exactly what smart investors do.
That was six years ago. Funnily enough, the author of this blog, David Haggith, recently posted an article titled I Bet My Blog on a 2018 Economic Collapse. Basically, he is going to throw sh*t at the wall until something finally sticks – then he’ll pontificate to everyone about how his prediction was correct. It is worth noting that he also predicted that 2016 would be the year of the economic apocalypse and that he was “fairly sure” that stocks would slump in January, 2017.
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