According to estimates from JPMorgan Chase in June 2017, just 10% of all stock-trading volume is the result of investors picking stocks to buy and sell. The remainder of trading volume primarily derives from quantitative-based computer trading. Essentially, we’re talking about computer programs that aim to secure small profits via high-frequency trading (HFT) hundreds or thousands of times a day.
Hey, thanks so much for the reply, Gord. I appreciate it. Yes, I’ve built one property and it’s a top vacation rental in its area. I’ll just have to be smart with the next one, and with looming fears of a recession (whether or not it happens) and stock market volitility, sellers appear to be spooked and dropped the price, so I’ll be able to buy the property for less. Timing might be good.
Lana, a lot of people are talking housing crash in many markets, but that could take the whole economy down. Even with a crash, it would still be tough for buyers. The right approach to bring prices down is more housing supply. The governments should provide tax breaks and other incentives for housing development and legislation which promotes new housing projects. Good finding a place you can afford.

Of course they are, that is why there are so many EU 27 trolls on here especially German ones like H/BLUFF and PIETER, WTO is OUR ACE CARD if ONLY MAY had played it properly, thankfully the EU will have to listen as that card WILL come into play automatically now, as BRINO will be REJECTED, and no deal WTO is by default, as legislated and now set in UK law, time to get her out, and a BREXITEER in, and threaten the EU properly with it, OUR WAY ON OUR TERMS OR WE DESTROY YOU.
Other important economic barometers were also slowing or even falling by mid-1929, including car sales, house sales, and steel production. The falling commodity and industrial production may have dented even American self-confidence, and the stock market peaked on September 3 at 381.17 just after Labor Day, then started to falter after Roger Babson issued his prescient "market crash" forecast. By the end of September, the market was down 10% from the peak (the "Babson Break"). Selling intensified in early and mid October, with sharp down days punctuated by a few up days. Panic selling on huge volume started the week of October 21 and intensified and culminated on October 24, the 28th, and especially the 29th ("Black Tuesday").[26]
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Admittedly, getting to the right mix can be tricky. The percentage of stocks you're perfectly comfortable with when the market is going gangbusters may leave you frightened and anxious when stock prices plummet. One way to arrive at a portfolio mix that jibes with your risk tolerance and financial needs is to go to a tool like Vanguard's risk tolerance-asset allocation questionnaire. The tool suggests a percentage of stocks and bonds that should make sense for you. It will also show you how various mixes of stocks and bonds have fared over the long term and in up and down markets.

The crash of 1929 involved a total stock market collapse, whereas, during 1987 stocks remained in a bull trend despite the 23% decline. The bursting of the Dot Com bubble in 2000 doesn’t appear very pronounced on the above chart. However, remember it is a chart of the Dow Jones index, which only includes 30 blue-chip companies. If you look at the tech heavy Nasdaq for the same period, you will see a very different picture.

Stock prices began to decline in September and early October 1929, and on October 18 the fall began. Panic set in, and on October 24, Black Thursday, a record 12,894,650 shares were traded. Investment companies and leading bankers attempted to stabilize the market by buying up great blocks of stock, producing a moderate rally on Friday. On Monday, however, the storm broke anew, and the market went into free fall. Black Monday was followed by Black Tuesday (October 29), in which stock prices collapsed completely and 16,410,030 shares were traded on the New York Stock Exchange in a single day. Billions of dollars were lost, wiping out thousands of investors, and stock tickers ran hours behind because the machinery could not handle the tremendous volume of trading.


FIDough backed this up with, “Lots of research shows that most people tend to sell near the bottom, and reenter the market after it has gone up significantly.  In other words, most people do worse by trying to protect their money from market crashes.  The truth is, if you keep on investing and stick to your rebalancing plan throughout market cycles, you will do great.”
TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.
If you’ve gone with a “set it and forget it” strategy — like investing in a target-date retirement fund, as many 401(k) plans allow you to do, or using a robo-advisor — diversification already is built in. In this case, it’s best to sit tight and trust that your portfolio is ready to ride out the storm. You’ll still experience some painful short-term jolts, but this will help you avoid losses from which your portfolio can’t recover.
Marc, I hope you and your kids can stay in So Cal, but can you see how the money and people are being vilified for wanting to be part of California’s successful economy and lifestyle. The real villains are those who are preventing development. And that new development really drives the economy, thus giving California a chance to compete in the global age. Other cities in Canada and the UK have the same problem and in each case it’s politicians squeezing supply. And the actions they’re taking does point to a recession eventually. If California’s polticians remove constraints, you’ll have lower prices in San Diego, LA and the SF Bay Area. The market alway solves itself.
Fifth, growth in the rest of the world will likely slow down – more so as other countries will see fit to retaliate against US protectionism. China must slow its growth to deal with overcapacity and excessive leverage; otherwise a hard landing will be triggered. And already-fragile emerging markets will continue to feel the pinch from protectionism and tightening monetary conditions in the US.
During the 1920s, the U.S. stock market underwent rapid expansion, reaching its peak in August 1929, after a period of wild speculation. By then, production had already declined and unemployment had risen, leaving stocks in great excess of their real value. Among the other causes of the eventual market collapse were low wages, the proliferation of debt, a struggling agricultural sector and an excess of large bank loans that could not be liquidated.

If you really believe the market is headed for an imminent crash, there are all sorts of places you could invest your money. You could move it all into cash, you could buy gold or real estate or for that matter you could even take an aggressive approach and try to capitalize on stocks' carnage by loading up on investments designed to rise when the market falls, such as bear market funds or put options.


One mitigation strategy has been the introduction of trading curbs, also known as "circuit breakers", which are a trading halt in the cash market and the corresponding trading halt in the derivative markets triggered by the halt in the cash market, all of which are affected based on substantial movements in a broad market indicator. Since their inception, circuit breakers have been modified to prevent both speculative gains and dramatic losses within a small time frame.[43]
As you can see from the numbers Dennis has on the housing market, things are much better than they were before the last crash. Lending guidelines are much tougher no matter what you hear. I see posts on Facebook all the time about how people can get low-money-down loans now, and that means the housing crash is coming. Low-money-down loans have been available for decades, and that is not what caused the housing crash. Really bad loans to people who should not buy houses is what caused the housing crisis. Those loans do not exist anymore, as you can see by the data Dennis provided. Yes, it is possible to get a loan with less than a 600 credit score, but very few people are actually getting those loans. When you look at the housing market, you need to look at the real numbers of how many houses are being built, what kind of loans people are getting, and how much house people can afford. Houses are not being built like they were before. The loans people are getting are much higher quality, and the market is much more stable than it was before.

As a result, while some stores sold new games and machines, most retailers stopped selling video game consoles or reduced their stock significantly, reserving floor or shelf space for other products. This was the most formidable barrier that confronted Nintendo, as it tried to market its Famicom system in the United States. Retailer opposition to video games was directly responsible for causing Nintendo to brand its product an "Entertainment System" rather than a "console", using terms such as "control deck" and "Game Pak", as well as producing a toy robot called R.O.B. to convince toy retailers to allow it in their stores. Furthermore, the design for the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) used a front-loading cartridge slot to mimic how video cassette recorders, popular at that time, were loaded, further pulling the NES away from previous console designs.[35][36][37]
In 1979, Atari unveiled the Atari 400 and 800 computers, built around a chipset originally meant for use in a game console, and which retailed for the same price as their respective names. In 1981, IBM introduced the IBM 5150 PC with a $1,565 base price[6] (equivalent to $4,213 in 2017), while Sinclair Research introduced its low-end ZX81 microcomputer for £70 (equivalent to £246 in 2016). By 1982, new desktop computer designs were commonly providing better color graphics and sound than game consoles and personal computer sales were booming. The TI 99/4A and the Atari 400 were both at $349 (equivalent to $885 in 2017), Radio Shack's Color Computer sold at $379 (equivalent to $961 in 2017), and Commodore International had just reduced the price of the VIC-20 to $199 (equivalent to $505 in 2017) and the 64 to $499 (equivalent to $1,265 in 2017).[7][8]
Meanwhile, domestic stock markets were closed on Thursday on account of Muharram. On Wednesday, the indices ended on a lower note. The S&P BSE Sensex settled at 37,121.22, down 169.45 points and the Nifty50 index of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) ended at 11,234.35, with a loss of 44.55 points. This was the lowest closing levels for markets since late July. (With agencies inputs)

However, with managements of these NBFCs trying to allay fears and dismissing reports of debt defaults, the market staged a recovery. Reports also emerged that DSP Mutual Fund had managed to sell some short-term paper of DHFL at 11 percent discount in a bid to build liquidity against its exposure to IL&FS. This led to the massive fall in the market as well.


NR, still stacking myself. Picked up some more .22 and .30 Carbine at the last gun show a month ago. My next big purchase is a new 12-ga. pump, Mossberg 500 or 590. 6 cords of wood are stacked at the BOL now. My cousin just got finished replacing the batteries for the solar system and installed a new Flojak hand pump for the well. Still have the creek out back as a backup source of water. What I have left to move now is just enough to fill up the truck for bugout. The woodstove at the cabin was just replaced 2 years ago along with the pipe. Cabin was totally remodeled 3 years ago. everything is in top condition there. Bugout time can’t come soon enough for me.
Surging oil prices: Oil has been rallying as worries about Iran sanctions, which kick in on November 4, threaten global supply. International crude oil benchmark Brent yesterday hit a four-year high of $86.74 a barrel. Given that India is the world's third largest oil consumer, and heavily dependent on imports to boot, this is the biggest threat to the domestic economy.
The American mobilization for World War II at the end of 1941 moved approximately ten million people out of the civilian labor force and into the war.[28] World War II had a dramatic effect on many parts of the economy, and may have hastened the end of the Great Depression in the United States.[29] Government-financed capital spending accounted for only 5 percent of the annual U.S. investment in industrial capital in 1940; by 1943, the government accounted for 67 percent of U.S. capital investment.[29]
But a substantial minority of us have shares. According to a study by the ASX, 31 per cent of Aussies owned shares in 2017. That’s millions of people who watch Alan Kohler do the Finance news each night with a knot in their stomach. Are they a bit more tight-fisted if the finance news is bad? Some will be, especially if they are close to retirement.

On September 16, 2008, failures of massive financial institutions in the United States, due primarily to exposure to packaged subprime loans and credit default swaps issued to insure these loans and their issuers, rapidly devolved into a global crisis. This resulted in a number of bank failures in Europe and sharp reductions in the value of stocks and commodities worldwide. The failure of banks in Iceland resulted in a devaluation of the Icelandic króna and threatened the government with bankruptcy. Iceland obtained an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund in November.[31] In the United States, 15 banks failed in 2008, while several others were rescued through government intervention or acquisitions by other banks.[32] On October 11, 2008, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the world financial system was teetering on the "brink of systemic meltdown".[33]
so that being said will this cause CA to go down the dumps along with housing prices?? I have already witness many middle to higher class citizens leave in large amounts in the last 3 years. and in the last 8 years a huge increase in homeless rate.. I am also concerned with the decision of the 9th circuit court that they have a constitutional right to sleep on sidewalks and parks which will further bring the state down.
The un prepared survivors become canibals and begin to eat each other for food. Ted Turner and his elite buddies sit back and watch the show go down from satiltes in orbit and the cleansing procees commenses in time for the Hunger Games reset. The survivors run to the outskirts of the city to allow the rotting decalying bodies to finish decomposing, to return to scavange the abundance of resurces, batteries, etc
Ultimately, if there is a going to be a full-blown collapse of the stock market right now, we would need some sort of “kick off event” in order to make that happen.  It would have to be something on the scale of another 9/11, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, an unprecedented natural disaster, the start of a major war or something else along those lines.

The average price of a detached house in the GTA rose to $1,019,416 from $1,008,361 last month. YoY, detached home prices have fallen 1.4% in the 416 area code and .4% in the 905 area code.  Home prices in the 416 area code fell from $1,342,363 to $1,311,265 , a drop of $31,000. The price of a condo apartment in the 416 area code fell from $615,582 to $603,153 yet that average price 8.6% higher than last October.
There are limits to examining historical data too. Nassim Taleb cites the error of believing that the highest mountain you’ve seen is the tallest. It’s far more likely that the tallest mountain is one you haven’t seen yet. In the same way with market crashes, we can look at market declines over different geographies and time periods, but it does not mean that there is necessarily any sort of hard limit there.

When markets are very volatile, the overall trend tends to be down.  So what investors should be hoping for are extremely boring days on Wall Street when not much happens.  That has been the usual state of affairs for much of the past decade, but now volatility has returned with a vengeance.  The following is how CNBC summarized the carnage that we witnessed on Friday…


Using a simple options calculator (like that available at options-price.com) we can calculate how our put options purchased in the example above would perform after a 20% decline in the span of just a month. In this hypothetical example, SPY drops to 175 and implied volatility rises to 55 (for this example I took the VIX level of 45 in October 2002, as suggested by Spitznagel, and added 10 points for 10% out-of-the-money put options). Our puts have gone from $9 each in value to $328.10. We own 55 of them so they are now worth just over $18,000 in total.
There are two big caveats to realize. First, just because the Buffett Indicator signals that stocks are cheap doesn't mean that they won't get even cheaper. As you'll see in the chart in the next section, the Buffett Indicator didn't bottom out during the financial crisis until it was briefly below 50%. Conversely, just because the Buffett Indicator looks expensive (like it does now) doesn't mean that stocks can't continue to muscle higher.
PropertyUpdate.com.au is Australia's leading property investment wealth creation website with tips, advice and strategies from leading real estate investment experts. Featuring topics like property investment, property development (helping you understand the process), negative gearing and finance (so you can borrow more from the banks), property tax (allowing you to structure for legal tax deductions and asset protections), negotiation, property management (assisting landlords and tenants understand their right responsibilities), commercial property (for experienced property investment individuals), personal development and the psychology of property investment success.
Buy when others sell. Historically, stocks rebound much higher than their price levels just before a bear market. This was the case in 1987, 1990, 2001, and in 2008 (just after the Great Recession began) after severe market collapses in those years. By contributing regularly to your 401k plan, your IRA plan and your stock and mutual fund investments, you're "buying at the dip," as Wall Street traders like to say. That means you're buying when prices are low, thus giving you significantly more bang for your investment buck. Remember, stocks become overpriced as bull markets mature. They become cheap in bear markets.
This year’s rate rises however are a bit alarming as this graphic shows — 70% in the last year. When you consider that such rises always accompany recessions, it’s no surprise to see a stock market correction or pullback and even a housing market slide. To investors, this scenario doesn’t look good. It can affect stock prices and discourage investment in new US businesses.
Other important economic barometers were also slowing or even falling by mid-1929, including car sales, house sales, and steel production. The falling commodity and industrial production may have dented even American self-confidence, and the stock market peaked on September 3 at 381.17 just after Labor Day, then started to falter after Roger Babson issued his prescient "market crash" forecast. By the end of September, the market was down 10% from the peak (the "Babson Break"). Selling intensified in early and mid October, with sharp down days punctuated by a few up days. Panic selling on huge volume started the week of October 21 and intensified and culminated on October 24, the 28th, and especially the 29th ("Black Tuesday").[26]
You haven’t seen the effects of *any* of Trumps decisions yet. And Obama’s decisions had virtually zero impact on creating the Great Recession. There wasn’t time. Unless you believe in teleportation, magic, and instantaneous changes to the marketplace and if that’s the case, I’m a nigerian prince building a bridge and boy have I got a business proposition for you…
We have entered a time when global events appear to be accelerating significantly.  Earlier today, bombs were mailed to major political leaders all over the United States.  In the Middle East, it looks like Israel and Hamas could go to war at any moment.  And we continue to see a rise in major seismic events – including three very large earthquakes that just hit the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
The bottom line: As a sandpile grows, all sort of sand “avalanches” take place, but it is impossible to predict how big or how often they occur. Sometimes a few grains roll down the slope, while occasionally a large avalanche carves a big section of the sandpile. The size and frequency of those avalanches, mathematically speaking, bear a notable resemblance to the size and frequency of earthquakes, solar flares, river floods, forest fires, and stock market returns. Intriguingly, all of them have defied attempts at prediction. The question is why.

Yes Bank share price collapsed as much as 34% to more than a 2-year low on Friday morning after country's fifth-largest private sector lender said that the present MD & CEO Rana Kapoor may continue as MD & CEO till 31 January 2019.  The board of directors of the bank are scheduled to meet on 25 September 2018 to decide on the future course of action, Yes Bank said in a regulatory filing. The stock of Yes Bank bottomed to over a 2-year low of Rs 210.1, down 34.03% on BSE while the stock tanked 31.67% to Rs 218.10 on NSE. Unusually high trading volumes were seen on the counters of Yes Bank, as at 9:39 am, about 10.5 crore equity shares of Yes Bank exchanged hands on both NSE and BSE with 9.7 crore equity shares being traded on NSE alone.

Jump up ^ Lambert, Richard (July 19, 2008). "Crashes, Bangs & Wallops". Financial Times. Retrieved September 30, 2008. At the turn of the 20th century stock market speculation was restricted to professionals, but the 1920s saw millions of 'ordinary Americans' investing in the New York Stock Exchange. By August 1929, brokers had lent small investors more than two-thirds of the face value of the stocks they were buying on margin – more than $8.5bn was out on loan.

Consider hiring a fee-only financial advisor to kick the tires on your portfolio and provide an independent perspective on your financial plan. In fact, it’s not uncommon for financial planners to have their own financial planner on their personal payroll for the same reason. An added bonus is knowing there’s someone to call to talk you through the tough times.
In other words, bear markets are part of investing. You can’t avoid them – but you can make sure a bear market doesn’t wipe you out. Rule number one is to diversify, and periodically rebalance your portfolio. When a correction, stock market crash or bear market comes along, the stocks that fall the most are those that are trading at the highest valuations, those with the most debt, and those with the lowest margins.
The stimulus provided thus far has managed to expand the amount of money in circulation, M2—a measure of the money supply that includes cash and most deposits—to 8.5% this year, from 8.1% last year. Yet, even with a large growth in the money supply, China has not been able to achieve its desired rate of growth because it is weighed down by its legacy of debt.
The cost of ownership in the most high priced markets is going up even more. Why? The limitation on the mortgage interest deduction to $750K and the limitation on the sales and property tax deduction to $10K. With the increase in interest rates, the partial non deductibility of interest and taxes, the overall cost of ownership is going up. Most people will feel the punch in their guts next year when they file the 2018 taxes. That is when most folks would realize what hit them was not a pleasant surprise!
Evan of My Journey to Millions took the conversation back to the bigger picture with your investing goals and, “I honestly do not think you can protect against a stock market crash, and that’s okay! Make sure your risk tolerance matches your asset allocation and ride it out knowing that you should have time to let it all work itself out.  It is unlikely that the next crash is going to be the one that destroys our market system.”
TREB forecasted another strong year for home sales via the MLS®.  Their outlook for the Toronto region was 100,000+ home sales for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected in 2017, with a point forecast of 110,000. TREB’s districts include Mississauga, Oakville, Vaughan, Newmarket, Aurora, Richmond Hill, Markham Bradford, Scarborough, Brampton, Oshawa and Milton.
Based on interviews and our own independent matching of the 6,438 W&R executions to the 147,577 CME executions during that time, we know for certain that the algorithm used by W&R never took nor required liquidity. It always posted sell orders above the market and waited for a buyer; it never crossed the bid/ask spread. That means that none of the 6,438 trades were executed by hitting a bid. [...] [S]tatements from page 36 of Kirilenko's paper[4] cast serious doubt on the credibility of their analysis. [...] It is widely believed that the "sell program" refers to the algo selling the W&R contracts. However, based on the statements above, this cannot be true. The sell program must be referring to a different algo, or Kirilenko's analysis is fundamentally flawed, because the paper incorrectly identifies trades that hit the bid as executions by the W&R algo.
These countries are full of boastful bravado about their ability to stand on their own two feet without the US, the reality is the abruptness of the protectism wave might be too much. If these economies collapse, including a China housing market collapse would a Tsunamai be sent toward US shores that would send into recession.  Right now, this could be the number one threat.
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